November 2013 pattern and discussion

[GaWx]

Possibly off-topic, but  it was 85deg at MCN today.

A new record by 2 degrees.

 

So, four days ago, a record low of 21, beating the previous by 4 degrees,

and today,  record high of 85, beating the previous by 2.

 

GaWx, when's the last time a station in Georgia reported a record low and a record high in a 4 day timeframe?

 

Wow!! Well, I don't have the answer. However, I did take a look at KATL records. At first glance, I couldn't find a record low and record high within four days of each other. However, I did find two instances within 5-6 days of each other;

 

1927: 1/15: record low of 9; 1/20-21: record highs of 74/76!

 

1970: 11/24 record low of 14; 11/30: record high of 76!

[jburns]

Wow!! Well, I don't have the answer. However, I did take a look at KATL records. At first glance, I couldn't find a record low and record high within four days of each other. However, I did find two instances within 5-6 days of each other;

 

1927: 1/15: record low of 9; 1/20-21: record highs of 74/76!

 

1970: 11/24 record low of 14; 11/30: record high of 76!

 

Not Georgia, but check this out.

 

On November 11, 1911 the most extreme cold front in U.S. meteorological records swept quickly across the Great Plains and Midwest. Kansas City, Missouri fell from 76° to 11° in 12 hours. Oklahoma City fell from 83° to 17° and Springfield, Missouri from 80° to 13° officially. In all three cases the cities recorded both their record high and record low temperature on November 11th.

[a5ehren]

Not Georgia, but check this out.

 

On November 11, 1911 the most extreme cold front in U.S. meteorological records swept quickly across the Great Plains and Midwest. Kansas City, Missouri fell from 76° to 11° in 12 hours. Oklahoma City fell from 83° to 17° and Springfield, Missouri from 80° to 13° officially. In all three cases the cities recorded both their record high and record low temperature on November 11th.

That's nuts! 

[mackerel_sky]

Looks like cold is coming for Thanksgiving!

The greatest 24 hr temp change in u.s history

Loma,, MT. -54 to 49 degrees!

Spearfish SD went from -4 to 45 degrees in 2 minutes( chinook winds). !!!!!!!!

[dsaur]

Well, we'll need to recalibrate a phase inverter to match the harmonic frequency of a low-level inverse tachyon pulse, which we'll emit through the navigational deflector array. We'll have to run array's emitters through phase inverter and engage the inverter at the precise moment we initiate the pulse. The resulting momentary disruption in the subspace band should provide just enough time to rerun the model, which would effectively couple its physical parameters with the distortion, thus altering the model's output to the desired result. Engage.

Dang, sir, you've got all the chops!!  I like your elaborate thinking, and rube goldberg precision  planning.  Of course, SuperMan would have just flown upside down, and backwards, around the world real fast, but we all know he isn't real!  I await this winters mystery with new found enthusiasm.  I now believe it will rain, and copiously, I believe the Moles will return and bring me some sleet.  I am renewed!!!  Will I be seeing this change in the 0z?  I just checked the 18 and it still makes me wait for rain at least 9 days, and not much rain, at that.   And meanwhile, it was so hot last night I was awake until 6am watching the last 12 minutes of Pitch Perfect, over and over.  Until it dawned on me to open the window and turn on the fan.  I thought we were shed of summer.   T

[dsaur]

Not Georgia, but check this out.

 

On November 11, 1911 the most extreme cold front in U.S. meteorological records swept quickly across the Great Plains and Midwest. Kansas City, Missouri fell from 76° to 11° in 12 hours. Oklahoma City fell from 83° to 17° and Springfield, Missouri from 80° to 13° officially. In all three cases the cities recorded both their record high and record low temperature on November 11th.

We had a derecho do that down here in the late 80's, early 90's.  Glen Burns said it was coming so I went outside in a t shirt, but carrying my coat, and it was in the 70's and a few hours later it was snowing, and by morning near 0, I think...in the low teens anyway....but my memory gets confused sometimes, lol.  I know it was true about the 70's and then snow a few hours later.  Low temps, I'm not so sure.

 

  Larry, I think Shack might be gearing up for a '73 redux.  He has spooky things going on down there.  T

[metalicwx366]

Looks like cold is coming for Thanksgiving!

The greatest 24 hr temp change in u.s history

Loma,, MT. -54 to 49 degrees!

Spearfish SD went from -4 to 45 degrees in 2 minutes( chinook winds). !!!!!!!!

I was just about to post this lol.

[GaWx]

The 0Z GFS has a sick temp./pressure gradient as of 6Z 11/24. At 850 mb, it has +8C just south of Savannah and -12C at Asheville!

[franklin NCwx]

Turkey day snow per the euro

[burgertime]

Turkey day snow per the euro

 

Yep Euro is very close. However it's hard to say if there would be back end snow as it's a FroPa. 

[strongwxnc]

The 06Z gfs is also looking good. 850's sub -15 with winds out of the NE per meteostar.

Turkey day snow per the euro

[1300m]

Hello STJ.

 

Edit: Strong indications that the end of November is going to become much more active as the STJ really cranks up. Now if we can just get one of those cold highs to deliver some of that super-dry air into the southeast ahead of one of these systems.

 

[Cold Rain]

The Euro from last night is very close.  From 192hr to 216hr, you can see the southern system track from just west of Atlanta to just off of Hatteras.  Meanwhile a 1036 high is building in to a favorable position to deliver cold.  If the southern low is just a tad slower, then for the upper SE, wintry weather chances would increase significantly.  Unfortunately, the next run cycle will probably show a cutter again.

[Cold Rain]

Longer term, the AO is in the process of falling.  The ensemble forecast broadly agrees on a drop to around -1 before rising again.  There is broad agreement for the NAO dropping to neutral, followed by a general consensus of rising.  The PNA is forecast to rise to neutral and hover in that general vicinity, with perhaps a slight bias negative.  The MJO isn't helping or hurting, as it's generally forecast to remain in the COD.

 

The CFSv2 continues to show a wetter than normal pattern for the next four weeks, while its temp progs show generally cooler than average weeks 1 and 2, with a substantial warm-up weeks 3 and 4.  It flip-flops a lot, but it is currently consistent with Don Sutherland's expectations in the Winter thread of the main page, depicting a milder pattern setting in in early December.

[FLweather]

 

 

Unfortunately, the next run cycle will probably show a cutter again.

 

While that is probable.... not likely imo.

 

It still could turn out to be a lakes cutter but really euro and gfs don't look too far off from one another right now. They do have slight differences but are about the same on the surface low and 500mb trough. Euro wouldn't be too far from a snowstorm while gfs mainly cold rain and ice towards the mountains.

 

When is the last time we had a setup like this that delivered mainly rain or freezing rain?

[Brick Tamland]

Turkey day snow per the euro

 

That would be great for getting into the Christmas spirit.

[Wow]

6z GFS:  CAD in place, storm off the SE coast on (or just after) Turkey day.   It's a 38 degrees and raining type of storm IMBY verbatim. Not quite there but close!

 

[swva]

This Thanksgiving will be at least cool to cold for most.  Which is a change from most years.  This storm bears watching but verbatim the 850's look too warm for any snow all they way up my way.  Good to see both GFS and Euro trending toward a similar solution though.

[Wow]

This Thanksgiving will be at least cool to cold for most.  Which is a change from most years.  This storm bears watching but verbatim the 850's look too warm for any snow all they way up my way.  Good to see both GFS and Euro trending toward a similar solution though.

 

As shown here, yes.. it would be mostly rain with some sleet/frz rain mix further north. But as you said, it's worlds better than what we've dealt with the past couple of years.

[strongwxnc]

I can handle cool to cold for Thanksgiving.. Anything else would be a nice bouns!

This Thanksgiving will be at least cool to cold for most.  Which is a change from most years.  This storm bears watching but verbatim the 850's look too warm for any snow all they way up my way.  Good to see both GFS and Euro trending toward a similar solution though.

[SnowNiner]

Longer term, the AO is in the process of falling.  The ensemble forecast broadly agrees on a drop to around -1 before rising again.  There is broad agreement for the NAO dropping to neutral, followed by a general consensus of rising.  The PNA is forecast to rise to neutral and hover in that general vicinity, with perhaps a slight bias negative.  The MJO isn't helping or hurting, as it's generally forecast to remain in the COD.

 

The CFSv2 continues to show a wetter than normal pattern for the next four weeks, while its temp progs show generally cooler than average weeks 1 and 2, with a substantial warm-up weeks 3 and 4.  It flip-flops a lot, but it is currently consistent with Don Sutherland's expectations in the Winter thread of the main page, depicting a milder pattern setting in in early December.

 

Yes, the teleconnections do not look as favorable as they did a bit ago.  -NAO is going down, but right back up.  Not good for getting HPs to stick around and stick in the cold and keep storms to the south.  Looks like December is going to be up and down, probably average out normal with the cold shots that hit once in a while. 

 

Good news, December usually stinks anyway.  January and February are really the only two months I expect anything.  Hopefully by then we'll get some real blocking.

[Bevo]

Yes, the teleconnections do not look as favorable as they did a bit ago.  -NAO is going down, but right back up.  Not good for getting HPs to stick around and stick in the cold and keep storms to the south.  Looks like December is going to be up and down, probably average out normal with the cold shots that hit once in a while. 

 

Good news, December usually stinks anyway.  January and February are really the only two months I expect anything.  Hopefully by then we'll get some real blocking.

 

As far as met. winter is concerned, December just doesn't normally produce for me. January, February and even March have been far more successful (even though March falls outside of met. winter, some of our best snows have occurred between March 1st - March 15th).

 

It's been a long time since November has been as chilly as this year. I honestly don't remember the last time it was.

[Wow]

Yes, the teleconnections do not look as favorable as they did a bit ago.  -NAO is going down, but right back up.  Not good for getting HPs to stick around and stick in the cold and keep storms to the south.  Looks like December is going to be up and down, probably average out normal with the cold shots that hit once in a while. 

 

Good news, December usually stinks anyway.  January and February are really the only two months I expect anything.  Hopefully by then we'll get some real blocking.

 

Yes, the teleconnections are trending away from more favorable numbers right now as the PV that forms in SE Canada in a few days looks to not stay for long and essentally pushes over the downstream ridge in Greenland.  We'll need to look for a SSW event to occur to get a sustained -AO/-NAO for the winter.  Most forecasts don't sound too hopeful for this to occur, however.

 

[Wow]

12z GFS: sub-500dm low about to hit Maine by 120hrs.  That's impressive for Nov standards.

[Wow]

Highs in the low to mid 30s Sunday per the GFS.  Wow.

[Disc]

[Srain]

A quick update from the Central/Western sub forum for you folks in the SE as to where all this cold air is coming from and why there remains a lot of uncertainty regarding the evolution of this cutoff low forecasted to be in Southern California on Thursday/Friday. If we look NW into Eastern Alaska and the NW Territories of Canada, we can see that our source region is very cold with temps in the -20 to -30 range. A short wave disturbance is depicted as a milky white feature dropping SE from that region this morning on water vapor imagery and being very dense with its origin over the Artic and Northern Siberia. Behind that short wave or upper air disturbance is a strong Arctic front racing S and should enter the Lower 48 from Canada tomorrow.

 

 

 

 

Canada and Alaska has sufficient snow cover to keep this air mass from modifying, so a strong Arctic High Pressure cell (1050mb+) will have little problems dropping S into the Northern and Central Plains. There is not much in the way of snow on the ground across the Central Plains, but due to the SW flow aloft originating from a noisy Pacific Southern Stream as the upper low wraps up into a closed cold core low, mid and upper moisture will stream over the shallow very cold air mass at the surface.

 

As the Arctic High slides S into the Southern Plains, upslope winds will begin in earnest along the Southern Rockies and the Front Range allowing for light snow, freezing rain and sleet to develop. Across the higher elevations of Southern Colorado into New Mexico, heavy snow should develop and continue into the weekend as possibly early next week. What we do not know at this time is just how quickly the 500mb cold core low will begin to move east as it becomes separated from the northern branch of the Polar jet. All options are on the table as of today regarding whether we see nothing more than a chilly rain or a significant ice storm across the Northern half of Texas and Oklahoma into Arkansas. Also the fly in the ointment continues to be whether a Coastal low forms and just when that will happen, if it does at all. For you folks further E, there are indications that the busy Thanksgiving Travel period may offer a rather cold and stormy pattern that warrants monitoring.

[burgertime]

 

 

As the Arctic High slides S into the Southern Plains, upslope winds will begin in earnest along the Southern Rockies and the Front Range allowing for light snow, freezing rain and sleet to develop. Across the higher elevations of Southern Colorado into New Mexico, heavy snow should develop and continue into the weekend as possibly early next week. What we do not know at this time is just how quickly the 500mb cold core low will begin to move east as it becomes separated from the northern branch of the Polar jet. All options are on the table as of today regarding whether we see nothing more than a chilly rain or a significant ice storm across the Northern half of Texas and Oklahoma into Arkansas. Also the fly in the ointment continues to be whether a Coastal low forms and just when that will happen, if it does at all. For you folks further E, there are indications that the busy Thanksgiving Travel period may offer a rather cold and stormy pattern that warrants monitoring.

 

Great breakdown! Stop my more often please.

[oconeexman]

Things are picking up early this year with some good long term indicators in our favor. Great breakdowns and explanations guys and gals!!

[tarheelwx]

I like the way we are seeing strong hp's moving across the northern states.  Would love to see the return of the classic CAD's of the past - quick inch or two of snow and then zr/ip for the balance.  Haven't seen those in quite a while.  In the 70's and 80's, it seemed we had a decent ice store at least once or twice a winter.

TW