franklin NCwx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 running the cmc loop.it looks like a miller screw. time for ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 exactly, its still November anyway. Yeah that snow shower last week's got me itching for January. Nothing this month is going to work anyway, may as well wait for the right pattern to evolve in about 6 weeks or so. Still, I hate cold rain. No offense Cold Rain..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Yeah that snow shower last week's got me itching for January. Nothing this month is going to work anyway, may as well wait for the right pattern to evolve in about 6 weeks or so. Still, I hate cold rain. No offense Cold Rain..... Don't worry, "nothing last forever even cold November rain". I would not say nothing will work for this month. Climo will argue against it tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Yeah that snow shower last week's got me itching for January. Nothing this month is going to work anyway, may as well wait for the right pattern to evolve in about 6 weeks or so. Still, I hate cold rain. No offense Cold Rain..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Come on. We see this every winter around this time. The timeframe will keep getting pushed back. What happened to the Thanksgiving storm and cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Hey it's not like it's torching here... Cold rain!!! What happened to the Thanksgiving storm and cold? Isn't that what we're talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Come on. We see this every winter around this time. The timeframe will keep getting pushed back. What happened to the Thanksgiving storm and cold? That can't be true, its no winter yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 The t-day storm has a nice CAD idea showing up for it. I guess it all depends on the timing of the Southwest ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 You guys....it's only November 18. This is bonus cold baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Pretty nice snow coverage over the Northern Hemisphere. Snow coverage now building into western Russia. The Hudson Bay is starting its annual freeze up and most of Canada is now snow covered. http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 if everything were aligned perfectly 200+ hrs out i would be concerned, lets just enjoy the model watching. cant remember a november where models looked this good in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Warm or cold, I just hope this dry pattern we are in goes away soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Well the GFS continues to show a solid split or near-split of the PV beginning of December and putting us into the ice box for a while. Pulls -30C 850mb temps into the plains. Brrr!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 You guys....it's only November 18. This is bonus cold baby. Exactly. I would love for this pattern to go back and fourth right know then in mid December the pattern sets up for an extended period when climo really supports it. Good to see the cold up in Canada to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Well the GFS continues to show a solid split or near-split of the PV beginning of December and putting us into the ice box for a while. Pulls -30C 850mb temps into the plains. Brrr!! Wow, Wow. Cross-polar flow, anyone? The cryosphere is in good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Solar flux still rising,up to 157.9 This could be what is called a double peaked solar max but I'm not ready to call that yet,we were in a valley between peaks but could be coming out of it.A solar surge was always on the table for late 2013-2014 but no one knew for sure because we still cannot predict it exactly yet. QBO still positive too at 11.69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Exactly. I would love for this pattern to go back and fourth right know then in mid December the pattern sets up for an extended period when climo really supports it. Good to see the cold up in Canada to. That's right. To put it into perspective, just go and look back at the posts from this time last year, and the year before that. We are in a much better position based on the weather we've experienced so far this fall and what the models are forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Solar flux still rising,up to 157.9 This could be what is called a double peaked solar max but I'm not ready to call that yet,we were in a valley between peaks but could be coming out of it.A solar surge was always on the table for late 2013-2014 but no one knew for sure because we still cannot predict it exactly yet. QBO still positive too at 11.69 The double peak was expected as the southern hem of the sun perked up before sliding down to zero again. Who knows how long it'll stay at zero this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 The cold would be on our side per the GFS. 50mb temp anomalies @ 384 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 anyone have the weeklies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 That's right. To put it into perspective, just go and look back at the posts from this time last year, and the year before that. We are in a much better position based on the weather we've experienced so far this fall and what the models are forecasting. Great post WOW. We are in much better position this year than the past two. Shoot I have already reached lows this month that was colder that all of last winter. Having ample amount of cold air really helps also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 anyone have the weeklies? They come out tomorrow but last I checked they looked good heading into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Solar flux still rising,up to 157.9 This could be what is called a double peaked solar max but I'm not ready to call that yet,we were in a valley between peaks but could be coming out of it.A solar surge was always on the table for late 2013-2014 but no one knew for sure because we still cannot predict it exactly yet. QBO still positive too at 11.69 Is that a new QBO number or has it ticked down a little? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Is that a new QBO number or has it ticked down a little?That's october's. November gets updated 12/3 I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 That's october's. November gets updated 12/3 I think Ah ok thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Solar flux still rising,up to 157.9 This could be what is called a double peaked solar max but I'm not ready to call that yet,we were in a valley between peaks but could be coming out of it.A solar surge was always on the table for late 2013-2014 but no one knew for sure because we still cannot predict it exactly yet. QBO still positive too at 11.69 Recalling from our conversation the other day, this is good, right? This could to SSW events, if I remember correctly, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 You guys....it's only November 18. This is bonus cold baby. Capt'n CR, sir, could you use your influence to reverse the maps so that storms showing up after truncation will now appear before truncation, and the reverse? The long range has better storms, bigger gulf taps, and much deeper cold than the first week ever does. Ten days ago this past weekend was full of deep gulf moisture, and when it got here, I got squat. I believe a change is in order For example, in early Dec. there is gulf moisture and deep cold on the gfs. In the days and days before it gets here that storm will evolve into nothing. Now were you to reverse the mapping, that storm would be two or three days out, with far less time to devolve. Please, Capt'n, make it so!! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Possibly off-topic, but it was 85deg at MCN today. A new record by 2 degrees. So, four days ago, a record low of 21, beating the previous by 4 degrees, and today, record high of 85, beating the previous by 2. GaWx, when's the last time a station in Georgia reported a record low and a record high in a 4 day timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Capt'n CR, sir, could you use your influence to reverse the maps so that storms showing up after truncation will now appear before truncation, and the reverse? The long range has better storms, bigger gulf taps, and much deeper cold than the first week ever does. Ten days ago this past weekend was full of deep gulf moisture, and when it got here, I got squat. I believe a change is in order For example, in early Dec. there is gulf moisture and deep cold on the gfs. In the days and days before it gets here that storm will evolve into nothing. Now were you to reverse the mapping, that storm would be two or three days out, with far less time to devolve. Please, Capt'n, make it so!! T Well, we'll need to recalibrate a phase inverter to match the harmonic frequency of a low-level inverse tachyon pulse, which we'll emit through the navigational deflector array. We'll have to run array's emitters through phase inverter and engage the inverter at the precise moment we initiate the pulse. The resulting momentary disruption in the subspace band should provide just enough time to rerun the model, which would effectively couple its physical parameters with the distortion, thus altering the model's output to the desired result. Engage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Guys forget what I said. I see what you all are discussing. Nice to see the models showing what they are. Thanksgiving looks to be cool and wet. Was hoping it would be like the weather was yesterday with 80s and sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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