burgertime Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Look out below 12z GFS has some cold air digging south. It's a good bit colder than 00z last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 But it does look to change before 240 hours. Within 6 days the NAO, PNA, and AO "look" to become favorable. This could be the flip; or they could go straight back to unfavorable. **(so)next week for at least one or two days we get all the stars to align. Hopefully it wont be cloudy... True that. What I said is totally unscientific and more just my internal "bad luck" feel. That being said 12z is looking to setup for something good at least cold wise for so early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Active STJ to say the least. A line of storms coming thru CA throughout the entire run just about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Active STJ to say the least. A line of storms coming thru CA throughout the entire run just about Also gives some good CAD setups as well. Either way someone on the east coast looks to get in on some fun and games over the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Eye candy on the 12z GFS incoming perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Fastasy hours looks fastastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Look out below 12z GFS has some cold air digging south. It's a good bit colder than 00z last night. A 1052 arctic high will release the hounds fairly efficiently! And it's well before truncation too! When is the last time we saw a high of that magnitude enter the US in November...or anytime for that matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1300m Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Fastasy hours looks fastastic Now this is tantalizing even if it is 324hrs out. The whole run looks quite interesting though - it honestly looks like we could have a real shot at a winter storm over the coming weeks if the timing will just work out. I know it typically doesn't, but to have legitimate threats this early?! I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 I agree Wow, you have to love the PNA/NAO and the 50/50, and the look of impulses in the southern stream. Of course, it's just eye candy, but I do like candy. Cold air finally on our side of the globe FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Active STJ to say the least. A line of storms coming thru CA throughout the entire run just about Excellent!! Can I get a doggy bag for this to go.....to enjoy in late December rather than November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 that is an impressive ridge over western Canada and Alaska! vodka.cold, now time.for some hotdogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 It looks like the 12z GFS took a slight step back from the potential Thanksgiving wintery setup, but as stated before I think the models are going to be very bad (> normal) past 6-7 days. I think the players are still on the field. We're going to have to wait unitl this weekend to see what materializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Active STJ to say the least. A line of storms coming thru CA throughout the entire run just about I know its still 200+ and Climo would be against. But that looks like the makings of an Icestorm. I do realize its still in lala land but even todays run at 240 shows a decent CAD and extremely low DPs prior to and even durring the duration of the precip. But thats this runs surface data and my 2 cent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 The GFS is on crack. But, since it's the kind of crack that looks good, we might as well look at the 360 hr. If you want to look for the right ingredients for a winter pattern, then this map is for you. Perhaps the PNA ridge is a smidge too far west, but other than that, we would be hard pressed to get a better look: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Now we'll have to see if the Euro comes around, or if the Euro is actually right this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 The GFS is on crack. But, since it's the kind of crack that looks good, we might as well look at the 360 hr. If you want to look for the right ingredients for a winter pattern, then this map is for you. Perhaps the PNA ridge is a smidge too far west, but other than that, we would be hard pressed to get a better look: Yes that's got ALL the ingredients. That's rare too, to even see a fantasy setup with every single one of the ingredients we need. Blocking, west coast ridge, and high pressure for cold transport AND southern jet for moisture transport where we need it; in the SOUTH. When was the last time something like that even showed up on a model? Probably means nothing but I'm going to just go with it and delude myself into believing it's a glimpse of the coming winter. Yes. I can see it now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1300m Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Yes that's got ALL the ingredients. That's rare too, to even see a fantasy setup with every single one of the ingredients we need. Blocking, west coast ridge, and high pressure for cold transport AND southern jet for moisture transport where we need it; in the SOUTH. When was the last time something like that even showed up on a model? Probably means nothing but I'm going to just go with it and delude myself into believing it's a glimpse of the coming winter. Yes. I can see it now... 12/26/10 is the last time I remember seeing anything remotely that good that worked out, and that's the type of setup we need for another big event like that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 We've discussed this before but the 12Z and 00Z runs of the GFS are often way off because they don't initialize as well early (as the Euro does) and are pretty much just a pure guess. There are often huge swings between the 12Z and the 6Z due to the difference in the initialization of the runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 We've discussed this before but the 12Z and 00Z runs of the GFS are often way off because they don't initialize as well early (as the Euro does) and are pretty much just a pure guess. There are often huge swings between the 12Z and the 6Z due to the difference in the initialization of the runs. I would imagine it's hard for models to correctly initialize b/c weather is ALWAYS moving. They (models) are all subject to huge swings because the further out in time you go, the greater chance for error (sensitive dependence on initial conditions). Once past a few days it's extremely hard to predict with any certainty what will actually occur in any given location. I've always thought it's better to look for large scale changes past 5 days before trying to key in on any one system. With that said, I am excited about some of the large scale changes that are beginning to show on the models! Hoping it comes to fruition and someone (in the southeast) can cash in toward early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Euro looks interesting out to 192...probably will not happen but has a huge cutoff coming through TX with a ton of moisture out front. Might come up with something interesting for the deep south if it keeps heading east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Euro is a swing and miss with the cutoff. Takes a hard turn towards Indiana. Probably a more realistic outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Looks icy to me.. esp if the high trends a bit more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Looks icy to me.. esp if the high trends a bit more west. Yea I thought it might push that ULL out to TN or something and would be fun to look at. I'm sure tomorrow will have a totally different solution. We want to be rooting for the GFS out of the models at 12z that's for sure. Euro just looked, "meh". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Yep, Dr. No in the house. No sign of a -NAO whatsoever. The PV retreats north, as expected, allowing the storm track to remain west of the Apps. This solution seems very reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 So, before we had the Euro showing things, and the GFS saying no. Now we have the GFS showing something, and the Euro saying no. Are we just supposed to believe the one that says no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Euro and GGEM are in agreement right now about the placement of the T-giving storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lindsaywx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Euro and GGEM are in agreement right now about the placement of the T-giving storm. Well that blows. If that PV is further south we might be in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Well that blows. If that PV is further south we might be in business It's 216 hours out, so I wouldn't stress out about it too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 It's 216 hours out, so I wouldn't stress out about it too much.exactly, its still November anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Hey it's not like it's torching here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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