November 2013 pattern and discussion

[franklin NCwx]

ensembles look pretty good on the euro. gefs still keep the Pacific good, 6z has lower heights over the pole and Greenland. still has a trough in the east.

[Wow]

Overall pattern looks good.  Eastern trough holds in the ensemble mean.  Some of the members work that ridge back into Greenland which would help keep a colder pattern locked in place.  For a November pattern I'll take it.

[packbacker]

Well, there's no indication of any sustained cold on any of the models through day 10.  Cold shots, followed by warm-ups.  So, it ends up remaining quite variable.  The main storm track still appears to be to the west.  Haven't looked at index progs or ens yet, but operational models show nothing remarkable, outside the fact that it looks like we're maybe in for a wetter period, as long as the systems don't track too far west.

 

Did you read CWG's winter forecast?  That's pretty much what they are calling for all winter but they do think it's going to be more active and not as bad (snowless) as the past couple of winters, although that's for there region.

[Cold Rain]

Did you read CWG's winter forecast? That's pretty much what they are calling for all winter but they do think it's going to be more active and not as bad (snowless) as the past couple of winters, although that's for there region.

I did. It's not exciting, but it does seem better than last year, as you said.

[FallsLake]

12 GFS does show an interesting setup for Thanksgiving week. No wintery precip as of yet but definitely a potential if the forecasted high orients itself better.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_216_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[a5ehren]

That looks quite nasty for the Ohio Valley       

Yeah. SPC issued a HIGH risk up there today (30% hatched TOR and 45% hatched winds). Going to head over to the OH Valley forum and watch, I guess.

[Wow]

12z euro still looking good going into tgiving week. Neg NAO with big PV setting up over E Canada.

[Lindsaywx]

12z euro still looking good going into tgiving week. Neg NAO with big PV setting up over E Canada.

So no cutoff?

[franklin NCwx]

So no cutoff?

still a southwest cutoff, expect plenty of run to run changes.

[pcbjr]

Mods,

 

Not sure where else to post this so if wrong forum, please relocate and PM or email me so I can keep track of any responses.

 

To the NE GA mountain folks in particular -

 

I'm planning on heading up this Friday the 22nd and doing some AT hiking until Monday evening, between roughly Suches and Vogel and Bear Pen (on the Richard Russel). Modelas are all over the place on precip (if, when, and what kind) and the commercial and NWS websites are 180º apart. Rain, snow, ice, clear, warm, cold .... GFS has fliiped every run.

 

I need to clear work Tuesday afternoon to come or not. Snow or cold or even a half day rain I could handle, but 3 days rain or ice -- well, I'll come in a couple weeks instead.

 

Anyone have any good prognostications?

 

Thanks!

[GaWx]

Mods,

 

Not sure where else to post this so if wrong forum, please relocate and PM or email me so I can keep track of any responses.

 

To the NE GA mountain folks in particular -

 

I'm planning on heading up this Friday the 22nd and doing some AT hiking until Monday evening, between roughly Suches and Vogel and Bear Pen (on the Richard Russel). Modelas are all over the place on precip (if, when, and what kind) and the commercial and NWS websites are 180º apart. Rain, snow, ice, clear, warm, cold .... GFS has fliiped every run.

 

I need to clear work Tuesday afternoon to come or not. Snow or cold or even a half day rain I could handle, but 3 days rain or ice -- well, I'll come in a couple weeks instead.

 

Anyone have any good prognostications?

 

Thanks!

 

 The 12Z GFS/Euro are saying there will be some rain on Saturday and only a small chance at some light rain on Friday. Temperatures look mild for Friday (maybe 60ish for a high) followed by a low Sat. AM well into the 40's. Sat's high looks also to be near 60 but then a cold front comes through with some decent winds and colder air moving in late. Sun AM lows look to get below freezing (high 20's?) per the colder 12Z GFS. The Euro isn't as cold. Sun day looks cold with a high not much above 40 per the 12Z GFS. There's likely be another freeze Sun night (30ish?) followed by a somewhat warmer high in the 40's on Monday. I see no wintry precip. for this period.

 

Caveat: this is still 5-8 days away. Things can obviously still change. So, check again closer to your deadline to decide.

[nchighcountrywx]

Cold Thanksgiving on the way!

Looks like snow skiing is order!

[dsaur]

I hear the Euro looks interesting 10 days out. Are we really going to fall for that again? It already did this once a couple of weeks ago, and did the same thing a couple of times last winter.

I'm applying your 10 day theme to gulf taps too.  Today looked great 10 days ago, and now it's desperately sparse drizzle.  And the next gulf tap is 10 days away T

[mackerel_sky]

So what did the GFS say tonight? Good signs still showing down the road?

[Marion_NC_WX]

So what did the GFS say tonight? Good signs still showing down the road?

It's only out to hour 99 on the NCEP site...will know more in the next half hour or so.

[metalicwx366]

So what did the GFS say tonight? Good signs still showing down the road?

Subtropical /Hurricane Melissa. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

[Marion_NC_WX]

So what did the GFS say tonight? Good signs still showing down the road?

 

 

Nice cold look here in the East by Day 8, moisture building in West Texas...

[Marion_NC_WX]

Overall an interesting look for Thanksgiving Week...maybe not as much for wintry weather but it's looking like the STJ will begin to really get active as we end November...

 

You have to think at some point in December that the STJ will have a chance to interact with cold air coming down from the Northern Jet...

 

 

EDIT: Just to add to my last comment...massive PNA ridge pops Day 10 and beyond.

[FallsLake]

6z GFS showing a possible CAD setup for Wednesday - Thursday of next week. Not sure if I buy this at this long of range. If this depiction was to happen there could be some ice in the typical CAD regions. (but)We'll have to wait until Friday or so to see if this has a real potential. After Thanksgiving the GFS showing lots of cold with other potentials; but again take this with a grain of salt right now.

[1300m]

Certainly a long way out in modeling land, but the southern stream system the week of Thanksgiving may be worth watching as others have mentioned. The 06z GFS is real close to a winter event in northern/western NC at 240hr, but we'll have to see how all of the timing works out, and how much cold air is actually available.

 

Despite it's recent run of success over the Euro, putting any faith in the GFS beyond truncation is still a losing proposition, but the large scale pattern it depicts for next week is interesting nonetheless!

[FallsLake]

Certainly a long way out in modeling land, but the southern stream system the week of Thanksgiving may be worth watching as others have mentioned. The 06z GFS is real close to a winter event in northern/western NC at 240hr, but we'll have to see how all of the timing works out, and how much cold air is actually available.

 

Despite it's recent run of success over the Euro, putting any faith in the GFS beyond truncation is still a losing proposition, but the large scale pattern it depicts for next week is interesting nonetheless!

Seems like the pattern is about to flip and when that happens the models get even worse than normal. As of right now, Thanksgiving could be very wintery or mild. As many have said over the years, if you don't like the model run wait for the next one. I think this is going to be very true for this weeks model tracking.   

[Wow]

Certainly a long way out in modeling land, but the southern stream system the week of Thanksgiving may be worth watching as others have mentioned. The 06z GFS is real close to a winter event in northern/western NC at 240hr, but we'll have to see how all of the timing works out, and how much cold air is actually available.

 

Despite it's recent run of success over the Euro, putting any faith in the GFS beyond truncation is still a losing proposition, but the large scale pattern it depicts for next week is interesting nonetheless!

 

Perfectly stated.  This is a good state to be in November and leading into December.  That is, an active STJ with a +PNA.  AO and NAO are falling back into at least neutral territory going into next several days. Some runs get the blocks in place after next week.

 

I think that SW low is going to be modeled poorly beyond a few days. Expect some waffles and bacon on that one.

[Cold Rain]

Certainly a long way out in modeling land, but the southern stream system the week of Thanksgiving may be worth watching as others have mentioned. The 06z GFS is real close to a winter event in northern/western NC at 240hr, but we'll have to see how all of the timing works out, and how much cold air is actually available.

 

Despite it's recent run of success over the Euro, putting any faith in the GFS beyond truncation is still a losing proposition, but the large scale pattern it depicts for next week is interesting nonetheless!

 

Good post.  If the 6Z is correct, and we know it isn't, that is a monster winter storm for many.  A 1040 arctic high, that barely moves from the Lakes into the NE, and a southern tracking low?  Perfect setup for widespread wintry weather.  Of course, the Euro looks nothing like that.  The 0Z GFS is similar, but it has a low in the Lakes and the track of the southern low is too far west.  If the low in the Lakes is there, forget it.  Anyway, both models drop the Arctic hammer toward the end of their runs.  Ice box city.

 

6Z 240:

[POWERSTROKE]

The models seem to be starting to head in right direction. Many other sites have said from Thanksgiving on looks to be wintry like. We shall see as models show blizzards ten days out that turn out to be flurries or nothing. Been like that for past few years

[FLweather]

Certainly a long way out in modeling land, but the southern stream system the week of Thanksgiving may be worth watching as others have mentioned. The 06z GFS is real close to a winter event in northern/western NC at 240hr, but we'll have to see how all of the timing works out, and how much cold air is actually available.

 

Despite it's recent run of success over the Euro, putting any faith in the GFS beyond truncation is still a losing proposition, but the large scale pattern it depicts for next week is interesting nonetheless!

Good post and appericate the input. Hard to believe that this could be the second real possibility of something frozen in the month of Nov!

 

Perfectly stated.  This is a good state to be in November and leading into December.  That is, an active STJ with a +PNA.  AO and NAO are falling back into at least neutral territory going into next several days. Some runs get the blocks in place after next week.

 

I think that SW low is going to be modeled poorly beyond a few days. Expect some waffles and bacon on that one.

 

Agree! That is going to be the most aggravating aspect of this coming pattern and the biggest player. Depending on how progressive it tracks from the SW to the SE could mean the difference of a winter storm this coming weekend or later next week around Thanksgiving.

[FallsLake]

looking at the day to day runs of the indices, there have been some markable changes (flip flops) with each passing day(runs). I think this is a sign of a pattern shift, but we'll only know as we get closer to the actual flip. So, in the short time if we pull ourselves back and only look at the next 7 days:

NAO is going negative

AO is going negative

PNA is going positive

 

All great signs; now the big question is where does it go after that?

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

[burgertime]

6z is certainly a thing of beauty. Euro also continues to have a great look in the LR overall. I just worry that perhaps we are getting what we got last year where the flip never comes. Everything is always at 240 and 300 hours...the goal post never moves closer. This year given spring, summer and now fall should give us more hope. 

[NCCatawba]

0z to 6z GFS went from over a foot of snow for Texas to just light snow showers. And this was 6 days out for them. 

 

Lots of changing.

[FallsLake]

6z is certainly a thing of beauty. Euro also continues to have a great look in the LR overall. I just worry that perhaps we are getting what we got last year where the flip never comes. Everything is always at 240 and 300 hours...the goal post never moves closer. This year given spring, summer and now fall should give us more hope. 

But it does look to change before 240 hours. Within 6 days the NAO, PNA, and AO "look" to become favorable. This could be the flip; or they could go straight back to unfavorable. **(so)next week for at least one or two days we get all the stars to align. Hopefully it wont be cloudy...

[Brick Tamland]

Good post.  If the 6Z is correct, and we know it isn't, that is a monster winter storm for many.  A 1040 arctic high, that barely moves from the Lakes into the NE, and a southern tracking low?  Perfect setup for widespread wintry weather.  Of course, the Euro looks nothing like that.  The 0Z GFS is similar, but it has a low in the Lakes and the track of the southern low is too far west.  If the low in the Lakes is there, forget it.  Anyway, both models drop the Arctic hammer toward the end of their runs.  Ice box city.

 

 

Well, the GFS has had the Euro's number recently, including the last two winters. Usually the Euro is the one saying no, but seems they switched the last two years when the Euro was showing things 7 to 10 days out, and the GFS said no. The bad thing is the GFS was right. So now we have the GFS looking good, and the Euro saying nothing to see here. Makes me feel like the best thing to do is just believe in the one that says no until all the models show something.