POWERSTROKE Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 How can someone prove you wrong? We have no control over the weather. Now, nature itself may prove you wrong, but I don't believe any individual has the power to prove you wrong. An individual may offer a contrary opinion or viewpoint, and be correct, but they would not have actively done anything to make their viewpoint come to fruition in contrast to yours. That would be a huge blessing. Bring on the rainfall! If regular rainfall were to occur this winter, eventually we'll time things just right to match up with some cold air. His theory? He always argues with wxsouth on fb. Fwiw weather south, jb have both said looks like a good winter for us. JB has been on it since May Now DT is saying samething as are others coming around to it. Only a few have said this is going to be a dud of a winter. Its only middle of November so we have a long way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I'm pretty satisfied with the model output in the longer range right now with a real indication of the STJ firing up for December. That should really knock away the warm December forecasts off their stool. Plus, the EPO looks to hold neutral to negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Moisture? Ha! at this point i am just happy to see a good, solid CAD set up for a change. here (ne ga) we have had a couple of minor transient ones, but none of the good, old fashion roaring NE winds, dropping dewpoints. its been years! once we get some good cads going we can look for the moisture lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 His theory? He always argues with wxsouth on fb. Fwiw weather south, jb have both said looks like a good winter for us. JB has been on it since May Now DT is saying samething as are others coming around to it. Only a few have said this is going to be a dud of a winter. Its only middle of November so we have a long way to go What about the possibility for a mediocre/average/so-so/grade c winter? From some discussions, one would think there's just a choice between good and bad? What about the many winters that have been toward the middle, especially temperaturewise? I'm leaning that way right now due to such a mix of factors. Whereas I don't see evidence for a cold winter right now based on the myriad of indices and what is predicted, I also know that Atlanta has hardly had two warm winters in a row such as the last two, much less three in a row, since 1879! No, I don't think each winter is totally independent of the prior winter. By the way, neutral ENSO tends to favor average winters on avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I'm just thinking this 3 month cycle of wet( June , July , August ) then 3 bone dry( September , October , November ) keeps repeating! Then we would have a wet December , January , February! To go with these cold shots! Just a theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 What about the possibility for a mediocre/average/so-so/grade c winter? From some discussions, one would think there's just a choice between good and bad? What about the many winters that have been toward the middle, especially temperaturewise? I'm leaning that way right now due to such a mix of factors. Whereas I don't see evidence for a cold winter right now based on the myriad of indices and what is predicted, I also know that Atlanta has hardly had two warm winters in a row such as the last two, much less three in a row, since 1879! No, I don't think each winter is totally independent of the prior winter. By the way, neutral ENSO tends to favor average winters on avg. Seems like I remember Dec 2010 was suppose to be warm and dry and we all know how that turned out in fact that entire winter was pretty awesome and on paper it was suppose to be a disaster and all the indices leaned towards a terrible winter. For all we have learned about long range forecasting there still are lots of little things that can setup that lead to patterns the indices dont really support which is what I love about weather. Seems the more we learn the more we see that we have a lot left to learn lol. So far this pattern is what I would call typical for around here, minus the backside Fropa snow event the other day those are pretty damn hard to come by here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I would definitely be happy with an "average" winter. Average would be a big improvement over the last two winters. The last three winters were really extreme examples of what winters can be like. It's extremely unusual to have the warmth of the last two winters, and the 10-11 winter was very unusual as well. We can't have extreme winters every year so we are probably due for an average winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Guess the 12Z sucks since no maps are showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Guess the 12Z sucks since no maps are showing up. Euro looks interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Guess the 12Z sucks since no maps are showing up. Actually, the 12Z Euro is downright frigid just north of the SE US in the 6-10. Interesting pattern! Edit: Wow and I posted at same time lol. 240 hour map fwiw (entertainment) has 1-2" of snow per clown in AL/GA with Miller A forming far south and very cold sfc high to north with CAd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Gotta say this is the first time I can remember since '93 that the OP Euro is advertising a possible triple phase scenario for the east. Most likely not a verbatim hit with it still holding a little energy back in the SW however. I've seen a few GEFS members show it a few times over the years. Not to give up anyone's hopes or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Wow, also with a nice 1040 HP to the north, damn that setup is nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 cmc has a similar look at 180 . this is fantasy land we are talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Thanks for posting, fellas. I'm in Burlington today visiting family, who have no computers, so I haven't seen any maps since this morning. Setup certainly looks interesting. Would love to see that look 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Thanks for posting, fellas. I'm in Burlington today visiting family, who have no computers, so I haven't seen any maps since this morning. Setup certainly looks interesting. Would love to see that look 48 hours out.no smartphone? how do you get by? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 cmc has a similar look at 180 . this is fantasy land we are talking. It has the tall PNA ridge and a southern s/w rolling down but the stars aren't quite aligned as they are on the 12z Euro. It's a possible threat. We'll see how it evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Might get flamed for this, but just for kicks; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 no smartphone? how do you get by? Man, I don't know. Maps won't pull up on my flip phone. I can hardly get it out of my pocket. The antenna keeps getting caught. Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Man, I don't know. Maps won't pull up on my flip phone. I can hardly get it out of my pocket. The antenna keeps getting caught. Lol!This made me laugh so hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 This made me laugh so hard. The sad part is, I really do have a flip phone, with an antenna. But, I predominantly use my work Blackberry. I can get to this site, but I can't pull up any maps on it. The ones posted here are little. But I can still see that the 10 day Euro, as usual looks tasty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 chilly on the ensembles for.Turkey week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I hear the Euro looks interesting 10 days out. Are we really going to fall for that again? It already did this once a couple of weeks ago, and did the same thing a couple of times last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 That looks quite nasty for the Ohio Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 I hear the Euro looks interesting 10 days out. Are we really going to fall for that again? It already did this once a couple of weeks ago, and did the same thing a couple of times last winter. Are you really going to get 5 posted before December even begins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 I hear the Euro looks interesting 10 days out. Are we really going to fall for that again? It already did this once a couple of weeks ago, and did the same thing a couple of times last winter. No one is falling for it. I think everyone here knows that this way too far out to even consider it. Plus climo is heavily against it anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Apparently, we aren't even supposed to discuss the D10 Euro because it probably won't happen. We know that, Brick. We are just discussing it. No one is saying it is going to happen as the model shows. This is a weather discussion forum, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 No one is falling for it. I think everyone here knows that this way too far out to even consider it. Plus climo is heavily against it anyway. The Euro tends to be pretty good at 72h or less. So, if we get a storm within 72 hours, then we can call it a threat. I tend to look at the long range from a high level.... simply for the overall pattern. However, if a long range storm continues to be there on successive runs, then it bears watching. I agree with you on climo. It is still a bit too early to be thinking a major storm will bring substantial snow to us non-mountain folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 So far up to 126 hrs, the 0z GFS is trending quite a bit toward the 12z Euro solution. Building that PNA ridge up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Well, there's no indication of any sustained cold on any of the models through day 10. Cold shots, followed by warm-ups. So, it ends up remaining quite variable. The main storm track still appears to be to the west. Haven't looked at index progs or ens yet, but operational models show nothing remarkable, outside the fact that it looks like we're maybe in for a wetter period, as long as the systems don't track too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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