November 2013 pattern and discussion

[Met1985]

Yeah, and the change today is that several members tank the AO and NAO into substantial negative territory. It fits well with DT's thoughts regarding a late month pattern change.

One other thing I'm noticing is that robust precipitation events seemingly dry up in the modeling until we get into the 24-36 hour time frame, at which point there appears to be a reversal in that trend. It happened with the last system and appears to be happening with tonight's event. It may have happened with previous events this fall, but I have only recently been paying attention. That could be an interesting little element for the upcoming winter.

The other interesting thing (which has already been pointed out), which may not really end up meaning anything, is that we are getting some substantial cold shots with a supposed unfavorable alignment of indexes. Does that mean that will continue all winter? Does it mean that when the indexes align favorably that we'll be that much colder and stormier than usual? It's probably a bit too soon to tell, but it is encouraging nonetheless.

In my opinion, these are positive signs heading into winter. If I could change one thing about the pattern, it would be to add a STJ. But if the pattern develops correctly, then we would presumably get the northern stream to dig enough to give us legitimate precipitation, rather than seeing all the energy cut toward the Lakes, leaving us with spotty showers from a fropa.

Another good post CR. I agree with everything you said. The teleconnections are looking really good right know. I would like to see more members get on board with really tanking both the AO and NAO to really re-shuffle the pattern and get some suppression with storms as we head into December. I really think we may be in business in about 2-3 weeks with the way the teleconnections are being forecast. All in all some very positive signs going forward as we head in Met winter.

[Wow]

Regarding the STJ, if the SOI index holds more in negative territory, that favors a stronger STJ.  We had a pretty substantial drop at the end of October so I expect some good bursts of STJ activity here.

 

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

 

[valkhorn]

WOW! I had forgotten that .... I was looking for 4 months of cold and snow 40 inches or so!

 

Well last year the high elevations of the Smoky Mountains did get nearly 40" from Hurricane Sandy, but that's an exception.

[Met1985]

Well last year the high elevations of the Smoky Mountains did get nearly 40" from Hurricane Sandy, but that's an exception.

Yes I no I had 42 inches all winter and snojoe ha like cloe to 70 inches and Mikegold had quite a bit also.

[Wow]

Solid CAD event coming up next week

 

[valkhorn]

Yes I no I had 42 inches all winter and snojoe ha like cloe to 70 inches and Mikegold had quite a bit also.

 

I'd have to go back up there to check, but I think Leconte got over 100" last season. Three seasons ago they got 162".

[Wow]

Finally, the models make it simple and point exactly where the cold air is supposed to go:

 

[Met1985]

I'd have to go back up there to check, but I think Leconte got over 100" last season. Three seasons ago they got 162".

Ya we can get some crazy totals up here in the mountains as you know. Get in some of the hollars we call them.

[Met1985]

Finally, the models make it simple and point exactly where the cold air is supposed to go:

 

Wow look at that feed from the Arctic.

[bobbitt]

yup i stand bye my thinking ,untill some one proves me wrong no real se ridge setting up this winter .. this blocking cycle is looking better an better . my theory, it will only get better as the winter goes deeper ,with  the postive qbo weaking  too nothing bye feb, an a poss elnino just pops up out of the blue? we  will see how that idea work's ? yes i know a elnino coming that late wil mean little for feb .but if  that happens it could  help extend the winter an cool temps into spring ?

[Wow]

weenie moment

 

[FallsLake]

weenie moment

 

With the potential pattern setup anything is possible; and for all us weenies that's all we ask for (...at this point).

[FallsLake]

Canadian snow cover looking good so far. This will be important for cold air masses moving south. Waiting for the Hudson Bay to freeze over. Looks like it's starting on the western coast.

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

[mackerel_sky]

Solid CAD event coming up next week

. Is there any moisture with this?

[Wow]

. Is there any moisture with this?

 

Moisture? Ha!  

[Marion_NC_WX]

Quite the storm on tonight's GFS at 192, surface low running up through the Tennessee Valley...excellent CAD signature originating from a 1036mb high at the New York/Vermont border.

[NCCatawba]

hr180

 

Then another moisture rich system comes in again at the end of the run. Maybe a wetter pattern is starting to take shape for the South?

[dsaur]

 The models overall, including the Euro, have been very unreliable as of late as my prior post about next week's much less impressive cold shows. Be that as it may, the 12Z Euro has a major snowstorm for the TN Valley 11/23-24 fwiw. For entertainment only.

Goofy has badly mis underestimated the extent of my no rainage.  Even when it rains I get far less that they predict up to a few hours away.  Today the NWS had my point forecast saying I'd see rain between 3 and 4.  I was surprised at the specificity, but about 3 I was completely comfortable with it when the sun came out, lol.   The only thing that will save this winter will be rain, no matter if it's cold enough for sleet.  If the fronts are all we get, and they are all loaded to the north, it looks bleak.  Badly need a trough into the gulf, and a split flow.  This baby piddle that called itself rain today, was a pathetic joke   Can you hear my angst? Everything under performs.  Has all summer down here in the cursed lands. Has for years, and years. I'd give up a lot to get a winter of 33 and gulf torrents like in my fondly remembered youth, lol.  Heck, I'd give up 5  summers to damp cold!!

[NCCatawba]

Looks like some of us have been placed under a slight risk. Here comes multiple wet systems as the cold air leaves for now.

 

[a5ehren]

Probably don't see a hatched Day 2 MDT up there in November very often. Interesting.

[Wow]

Looks like we'll be getting a southern storm track past next week.  Looks like a wetter pattern will be setting up, hopefully, by the end of the month.

 

[jshetley]

Looks like we'll be getting a southern storm track past next week.  Looks like a wetter pattern will be setting up, hopefully, by the end of the month.

 

I certainly hope this works out. It's been rather dry around here since way back in august.

[calculus1]

yup i stand bye my thinking ,untill some one proves me wrong no real se ridge setting up this winter .. this blocking cycle is looking better an better . my theory, it will only get better as the winter goes deeper ,with  the postive qbo weaking  too nothing bye feb, an a poss elnino just pops up out of the blue? we  will see how that idea work's ? yes i know a elnino coming that late wil mean little for feb .but if  that happens it could  help extend the winter an cool temps into spring ?

 

How can someone prove you wrong?  We have no control over the weather.  Now, nature itself may prove you wrong, but I don't believe any individual has the power to prove you wrong.  An individual may offer a contrary opinion or viewpoint, and be correct, but they would not have actively done anything to make their viewpoint come to fruition in contrast to yours.

 

Looks like we'll be getting a southern storm track past next week.  Looks like a wetter pattern will be setting up, hopefully, by the end of the month.

 

That would be a huge blessing.  Bring on the rainfall!  If regular rainfall were to occur this winter, eventually we'll time things just right to match up with some cold air.

[FallsLake]

Indices don't look as good as yesterday for the extended. The PNA is looking a little better (to neutral on average), but the AO and NAO look to average now around neutral (from solidly negative yesterday). So what do you get if everything is neutral?  ..not that it will (probably) end up that way. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

[Cold Rain]

Storm track still looks to remain west.  But that's ok in November...as long as we get rain, that's good.  Warm-ups ahead of systems and cool-downs behind looks to be the trend for the foreseeable future.  Nothing really exciting happening as far as the eye can see right now.  Our friend, the east-based NAO seems to pop up from time to time, but we will need that to trend west as we work into the winter.  Otherwise, it will be difficult to get the storm track to the south of us.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

How can someone prove you wrong?  We have no control over the weather.  Now, nature itself may prove you wrong, but I don't believe any individual has the power to prove you wrong.  An individual may offer a contrary opinion or viewpoint, and be correct, but they would not have actively done anything to make their viewpoint come to fruition in contrast to yours.

 

 

That would be a huge blessing.  Bring on the rainfall!  If regular rainfall were to occur this winter, eventually we'll time things just right to match up with some cold air.

 

Don't waste your time with him man. He's just a kid, or a poorly cloaked troll. Do what most of us have done.... put him on ignore and move on.

[Cold Rain]

Indices don't look as good as yesterday for the extended. The PNA is looking a little better (to neutral on average), but the AO and NAO look to average now around neutral (from solidly negative yesterday). So what do you get if everything is neutral?  ..not that it will (probably) end up that way. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

Average is probably the best guess.  It's probably a wise thing not to believe -NAO/-AO forecasts until they are imminent.  There are a lot of signals out there that suggest it will be hard to average a -AO winter (not what many of us would like to hear), depending upon who you listen to.  On the other hand, some winter forecasts predict more favorable NAO/AO states.  Those can't be discounted either.  For me, I will probably not buy any sustained blocking in the LR until it shows up consistently and moves into 5-7 day time frame.  That viewpoint is based on the last couple of years of watching models show it and take it away.  Until the winter pattern proves that it can actually deliver that, then I'm in no hurry to get excited about any fantasy blocking and sustained cold.

 

All that aside, the fact that we continue to see arctic highs form and move into the US is a good sign and can offset a marginal or unfavorable H5 look (in terms of providing colder surface temps than you'd expect) and can also create the opportunity for better/stronger CADs than we've seen the last few years.  I love seeing those strong highs.

 

I expect that we'll see many more flip flops in the medium to long range as we head throughout the month and into the winter, and it wouldn't surprise me to see the AO and NAO to trend toward neutral and then remain there or head back positive again.  I would give that a 60-70% chance of being the outcome.

[metalicwx366]

Indices don't look as good as yesterday for the extended. The PNA is looking a little better (to neutral on average), but the AO and NAO look to average now around neutral (from solidly negative yesterday). So what do you get if everything is neutral? ..not that it will (probably) end up that way.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

That was quite a change. Yesterday it was looking like we would see a decently negative NAO and AO. Now just neutral.

[FallsLake]

Ensemble runs would put more credence on the 6Z GFS over the 0Z. Not that the 6Z has anything great, but it does look very "normal" in the long range. 

 

[FallsLake]

Average is probably the best guess.  It's probably a wise thing not to believe -NAO/-AO forecasts until they are imminent.  There are a lot of signals out there that suggest it will be hard to average a -AO winter (not what many of us would like), depending upon who you listen to.  On the other hand, some winter forecasts predict more favorable NAO/AO states.  Those can't be discounted either.  For me, I will probably not buy any sustained blocking in the LR until it shows up consistently and moves into 5-7 day time frame.  That viewpoint is based on the last couple of years of watching models show it and take it away.  Until the winter pattern proves that it can actually deliver that, then I'm in no hurry to get excited about any fantasy blocking and sustained cold.

 

All that aside, the fact that we continue to see arctic highs form and move into the US is a good sign and can offset a marginal or unfavorable H5 look in terms of surface temps and can also create the opportunity for better/stronger CADs than we've seen the last few years.  I love seeing those strong highs.

 

I expect that we'll see many more flip flops in the medium to long range as we head throughout the month and into the winter, and it wouldn't surprise me to see the AO and NAO to trend toward neutral and then remain there or head back positive again.  I would give that a 60-70% chance of being the outcome.

I agree, as I've read before (mostly from here), when we get into the hart of winter we will not need all the indices to be favorable to support wintery weather. So we may be able to have a +AO but get some good blocking to pull what cold air Canada is able to provide.