November 2013 pattern and discussion

[Met1985]

Ok, it didn't sound the best, but I didn't know for sure. So the stuff NC Hailstorm posted is not the direction we want to see things go. We'll just have to hope it turns around or has no ill effect on the pattern. Thanks man.

No problem. This is just one piece of the puzzle and it seems like there is no real clear pattern heading into winter.  Last year we had low solar activity and the AO averaged negative the whole year but we still had a crappy winter. Just to show you that there are several things that factor into winter and the pattern but hey you and a lot of other people know this to just using that as an example.

[BIG FROSTY]

As long as we get wintry weather DEC and Jan I could careless about Feb. We are in SE so I don't expect a 4 month winter

WOW! I had forgotten that .... I was looking for 4 months of cold and snow 40 inches or so!

[Wow]

As long as we get wintry weather DEC and Jan I could careless about Feb. We are in SE so I don't expect a 4 month winter

 

Just wait until the coming  Maunder Minimum sets in! 

[griteater]

Elevated solar flux (above 150) is good during a positive QBO. Sudden Stratospheric Warmings are favored in a positive QBO combined with high solar flux and in a negative QBO during weak solar flux (below 105). We have the positive QBO. I just question whether the solar flux will stay elevated in a solar cycle that appears to be on the decline.

[NC_hailstorm]

I appreciate the updates on this man. I really do...but what does it mean for us? I mean, what should I be routing for for cold and snow? Do we like the values you posted, or do they suck and it's already all over?

Actually if you go by past data this is a good match,a solar max into a +QBO like this year leads to strat warming.You can also get it with a -QBO into low solar like last year so two different ways.I didn't expect the flux to reach this high with the overall sun going quiet but it could work out.There's also theories that high solar effects the ENSO.

[Pilotwx]

WOW! I had forgotten that .... I was looking for 4 months of cold and snow 40 inches or so!

40 inches of snow! can u believe that someone would ever think that 48 inches of snow could happen in the SE. Crazy Crazy Crazy.

 

Just hope that we have not entered into a cold dry pattern, as wet as this summer was, u can about expect a dry spell, just how long it last is the question.

[buckeyefan1]

End of the GFS is a great look if it pans out. I think the thing to remember is that we are in November. Who knows how the rest of winter will play out but if you can't get excited by this pattern early on given the past two winters there may be no hope for you. By the way for fun it would take very little for the GFS to have a nice dump of snow just after Thankgiving. We need a good first fantasy storm on the GFS to really kick things off and would not be surprised if it happens over the next runs given the overall look. 

Yes it is  

 

I've missed those  

 

You know - there were a ton of cold winter forecasts from reputable mets last year too.  I am over the long range guess work.  It's like picking the perfect NCAA Tourney bracket.  Most are busted in the first round.  Some may make it to the Sweet 16.  Rarely does anyone pick it perfectly.

Well said    

 

This post summarizes my thoughts very nicely CR! Very good to see the cold making it here and the models showing the ability to get more cold here later on (potentially).  However I still have a lot of doubts about getting a good storm out of the good patterns shown.  I'd really like to hear about the STJ cranking up, having storms coming on shore in Southern Cal rather than Washington.  Hate hearing we need to root for the northern storm to DIG, DIG, DIG, but it never quite seems to dig enough.  It's like golf and you pitch a bit too hard and you yell BITE, BITE...., you know it never does.  You're just chipping on the other end of the green. 

I would too    

 

Ha, is sounds like you have something akin to my " z monster in Atlanta, in '73" syndrome   But now, 5 inches of sleet, as opposed to zrain, is a thing of beauty!  Don't worry about it until we start getting real rain, otherwise it's just bitter, sunny days.....T

This....sigh....hopefully this weekend will bring some much needed rain

[Met1985]

Actually if you go by past data this is a good match,a solar max into a +QBO like this year leads to strat warming.You can also get it with a -QBO into low solar like last year so two different ways.I didn't expect the flux to reach this high with the overall sun going quiet but it could work out.There's also theories that high solar effects the ENSO.

Ya seems like the past few years there has been more discussion about solar activity and the way it effects the pattern. Very interesting with the strat warming and how it can effect blocking.

[Cold Rain]

Actually if you go by past data this is a good match,a solar max into a +QBO like this year leads to strat warming.You can also get it with a -QBO into low solar like last year so two different ways.I didn't expect the flux to reach this high with the overall sun going quiet but it could work out.There's also theories that high solar effects the ENSO.

Ok, getting where you're going now. We like SSWs, so we're liking the solar flux values in conjunction with the current QBO state. But next time a or a would be helpful. Haha! Seriously, thanks to you and Grit for spelling it out.

[Met1985]

Actually if you go by past data this is a good match,a solar max into a +QBO like this year leads to strat warming.You can also get it with a -QBO into low solar like last year so two different ways.I didn't expect the flux to reach this high with the overall sun going quiet but it could work out.There's also theories that high solar effects the ENSO.

Also is this similar to net flux also?

[Met1985]

Ok, getting where you're going now. We like SSWs, so we're liking the solar flux values in conjunction with the current QBO state. But next time a or a would be helpful. Haha! Seriously, thanks to you and Grit for spelling it out.

Ah sorry CR I was thinking of something else. Maybe solar storms and the pattern and the upper levels being very cold compared to normal. I learned something new today to.

[Cold Rain]

Ah sorry CR I was thinking of something else. Maybe solar storms and the pattern and the upper levels being very cold compared to normal. I learned something new today to.

Hey, no worries. I haven't done much research at all on solar impacts on climate/weather...only what I read on this board, really. Overall, it seems less solar activity correlates to a cooler climate, from a multi-year standpoint. But the ins and outs of solar flux and its relationship to other variables and the resulting effects on weather patterns is not something I'm well versed in.

[bobbitt]

looks too me we seeing a repeat blocking in greenland the last blocking took place oct 30 . the next forcasted blocking taking place nov 30 , with a falling qbo this should allow for more blocking too take place as we move forward into winter.  winter could be fun for a change ?

[NCCatawba]

So if you had to pick the number one problem for the pattern developing late November into winter what would it be?

 

My uneducated guess would be a simple one...no moisture or we get (1) storm per month that has bad timing with the cold air (which I think we will be having cold air around this go around at times just maybe not constant).

[Shawn]

So if you had to pick the number one problem for the pattern developing late November into winter what would it be?

 

My uneducated guess would be a simple one...no moisture or we get (1) storm per month that has bad timing with the cold air (which I think we will be having cold air around this go around at times just maybe not constant).

 

I haven't been looking super close at the intricates.  What is the southern stream looking like?  I know this isn't a El Nino deal; but I figure if anything comes out of the gulf, generally the deep south sees something good.

[dsaur]

Bingo!  We need a deep enough trough, and far enough west to get the impulses picking up the gulf when they come down.  If we can get an active southern stream pattern, I'll take my chance with the cold air.  So far it's just dry fronts, and no tap.  No more side swipes!!  No more side swipes!!  I want my friends out on the other coast to be toasty warm all winter, while we poor people in the deep south freeze our cockles, lol.  T

[NCSNOW]

Good read.

http://www.wxrisk.com/2013/11/signs-of-pattern-change-late-nov-early-dec-growing/

[POWERSTROKE]

40 inches of snow! can u believe that someone would ever think that 48 inches of snow could happen in the SE. Crazy Crazy Crazy.

Just hope that we have not entered into a cold dry pattern, as wet as this summer was, u can about expect a dry spell, just how long it last is the question.

Just have to consider the source

[strongwxnc]

it was a gread read. Thanks for posting!

 

Good read.

http://www.wxrisk.com/2013/11/signs-of-pattern-change-late-nov-early-dec-growing/

[FallsLake]

Indices still looking good moving towards the end of the month:

NAO going negative

AO going negative

PNA going towards neutral but may stay slightly negative (not great but better than now)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

[Cold Rain]

Indices still looking good moving towards the end of the month:

NAO going negative

AO going negative

PNA going towards neutral but may stay slightly negative (not great but better than now)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

Yeah, and the change today is that several members tank the AO and NAO into substantial negative territory. It fits well with DT's thoughts regarding a late month pattern change.

One other thing I'm noticing is that robust precipitation events seemingly dry up in the modeling until we get into the 24-36 hour time frame, at which point there appears to be a reversal in that trend. It happened with the last system and appears to be happening with tonight's event. It may have happened with previous events this fall, but I have only recently been paying attention. That could be an interesting little element for the upcoming winter.

The other interesting thing (which has already been pointed out), which may not really end up meaning anything, is that we are getting some substantial cold shots with a supposed unfavorable alignment of indexes. Does that mean that will continue all winter? Does it mean that when the indexes align favorably that we'll be that much colder and stormier than usual? It's probably a bit too soon to tell, but it is encouraging nonetheless.

In my opinion, these are positive signs heading into winter. If I could change one thing about the pattern, it would be to add a STJ. But if the pattern develops correctly, then we would presumably get the northern stream to dig enough to give us legitimate precipitation, rather than seeing all the energy cut toward the Lakes, leaving us with spotty showers from a fropa.

[Jon]

Indices still looking good moving towards the end of the month:

NAO going negative

AO going negative

PNA going towards neutral but may stay slightly negative (not great but better than now)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

Yeah and the 00z Euro Ens Mean looks juicy right now at 240, lets hope this is a sign of things to come for December.

 

[NCCatawba]

Pattern Discussion/ Winter Forecast from Brad Panovich

 

http://www.wcnc.com/news/editors-pick/Brads-9th-Annual-Winter-Forecast-for-the-Carolinas--230664231.html

 

 

 

 

Brad Panovich WCNC

Liked · 2 hours ago 

For my Winter Forecast the one climate model I leaned heavily on was the JAMSTEC 27 member ensemble for Dec-Feb. It has performed pretty well the past couple of winters.

 

Brad Panovich WCNC

Some other winter stats for you over the past 30yrs. Notice how cold winters don't always correlate too well with snowy winters. Wet winters are much better for snow lovers. Storm track is by far the most important factor for Charlotte snow. Winter temperatures seem to not matter as much as you'd think. Cold around here in the winter typically means dry.

[Cold Rain]

Lol at the 1052 Arctic High moving into the Plains at the end of the run. Major amplification continues to show up on the Ensembles.

[GaWx]

how do ya like these temps for next week...18z next weds.

 

 The models have come in way less cold for this next airmass for ~11/20 with many areas ~10 warmer than this GFS model showed just two days ago! The high is not nearly as strong or as far south as was modeled two days ago.  Whereas KATL looked to get about as cold next week as this past week (mid to upper 20's), it now looks like 30's/above freezing will be the coldest and a sub 40 isn't even a gurarantee now at KATL! There, the coldest 850 is now down to only ~+3 C to +4 C vs. the ~-3 to -4 C accompanying the above map .

[burgertime]

12z looked downright frigid in the LR and even had some fantasy wintry precip at the end of it's run. Euro looks like it might have a surprise for someone in the 200hr range. 

[burgertime]

This run of the Euro has a really good look around hour 200...granted it's out in la la land but it puts a big PV out in NE Canada which helps suppress the flow. Something we've been missing the last couple of winters. If it played out how the Euro has it this afternoon it would just take a little bit of good timing (hard to find I know) for someone to get something special. 

[GaWx]

This run of the Euro has a really good look around hour 200...granted it's out in la la land but it puts a big PV out in NE Canada which helps suppress the flow. Something we've been missing the last couple of winters. If it played out how the Euro has it this afternoon it would just take a little bit of good timing (hard to find I know) for someone to get something special. 

 

 The models overall, including the Euro, have been very unreliable as of late as my prior post about next week's much less impressive cold shows. Be that as it may, the 12Z Euro has a major snowstorm for the TN Valley 11/23-24 fwiw. For entertainment only.

[burgertime]

 The models overall, including the Euro, have been very unreliable as of late as my prior post about next week's much less impressive cold shows. Be that as it may, the 12Z Euro has a major snowstorm for the TN Valley 11/23-24 fwiw. For entertainment only.

 

Yea seems to be a carry over from last winter. Though...it does seem as Robert pointed out in one of his blog posts the models have been under performing on just how cold these cold fronts are until the last minute. I don't really buy the Euro especially since it ends with a huge cutoff in Texas, but if that PV can setup shop and hang around for a few days there's a good chance someone would get a surprise. GFS obviously disagrees in the same time frame so time will tell. I will say though that the look on both especially for November does give me some hope. Back to the old hamster wheel. 

[superjames1992]

Got to love the 1048 mb HP the GFS spools up in at the end of its run in southern Saskatchewan.  LOL.......