November 2013 pattern and discussion

[superjames1992]

Bastardi brought up a blend of Dec.1976, 1989, and 2000 vs. latest ensemble runs.

I don't remember the first two years, but Dec. of 2000 was a December to remember.

December 22-24, 1989 gave the coastal plain and OBX a massive, historic snowfall. Oh, and Jacksonville, FL got an accumulating snowfall from that one, too!

[jshetley]

The new GFS is taking the rain we need so bad away. If the trend continues like this, we'll be down to trace amounts at best.

[Wow]

Let us be thankful for blocking.  Fun pattern emerging by T-giving time per the GFS for a few runs now.

 

[NCSNOW]

Bastardi brought up a blend of Dec.1976, 1989, and 2000 vs. latest ensemble runs.

I don't remember the first two years, but Dec. of 2000 was a December to remember.

 

Greensboro, NC Weather in December 1989

• Temperature for December 1989

In December 1989 the average high temperature in Greensboro, NC was 45.5°F, and this was 6.5°F cooler than the average of 51.9°F. The hottest day in December 1989 was 7 December when the temperature reached 64.9°F. Overnight the average temperature in December is 30.6°F and in 1989 the average overnight temperature was 9.2°F cooler at 21.5°F.

Precipitation for December 1989

In December the average monthly rainfall in Greensboro, NC is 2.20 inches with rain usually falling on 10 days. In December 1989 there was a total of 2.69 inches of rain, that fell on 10 days.

Information

The climate summary for this page is based on data from the Global Summary of the Day and is based on weather observations between November 1945 and December 2012.

 

Greensboro, NC Weather in December 2000

 

Temperature for December 2000

In December 2000 the average high temperature in Greensboro, NC was 44.4°F, and this was 7.5°F cooler than the average of 51.9°F. The hottest day in December 2000 was 17 December when the temperature reached 63.0°F. Overnight the average temperature in December is 30.6°F and in 2000 the average overnight temperature was 7.5°F cooler at 23.1°F.

Precipitation for December 2000

In December the average monthly rainfall in Greensboro, NC is 2.20 inches with rain usually falling on 10 days. In December 2000 there was a total of 1.17 inches of rain, that fell on 8 days.

Information

The climate summary for this page is based on data from the Global Summary of the Day and is based on weather observations between November 1945 and December 2012.

 

 

 

Greensboro, NC Weather in December 1976

 

Temperature for December 1976

In December 1976 the average high temperature in Greensboro, NC was 50.5°F, and this was 1.4°F cooler than the average of 51.9°F. The hottest day in December 1976 was 20 December when the temperature reached 63.0°F. Overnight the average temperature in December is 30.6°F and in 1976 the average overnight temperature was 6.0°F cooler at 24.6°F.

Precipitation for December 1976

In December the average monthly rainfall in Greensboro, NC is 2.20 inches with rain usually falling on 10 days. In December 1976 there was a total of 4.21 inches of rain, that fell on 14 days.

Information

The climate summary for this page is based on data from the Global Summary of the Day and is based on weather observations between November 1945 and December 2012.

 

 

 

 

 

[tnweathernut]

Thanks for posting Wow, but it looks weak and east based to me and the Pacific looks funky too. Of course it's 200+ out, but it's exciting to see how the modeling is trying to latch on to the upcoming pattern around the end of November and into December. 

 

Perhaps the variability we have seen so far, along with really strong high pressures showing up will allow us to score something wintry with great timing.  If we can get 1040+ highs to continue to push down, it's only a matter of time before one of those attacks the backside of a storm system, even if we remain relatively progressive. JMO.

[NEGa]

early dec can definitely bring good winter storms to the se - the biggest ice storm i have seen was in the first half of december.  in addition to a monster cad and ice storm, that was pretty much the LAST good cad and ice event we had here (ne ga).  i am optimistic for this winter, esp since the cold did arrive as advertised (i just hope it keeps this up).  much better than the proverbial "10 days away" cold fronts

[FallsLake]

As you guys have already discussed some real eye candy in the LR (>10 days) GFS. Of course it will change with the next run but maybe it is starting to catch on to the blocking. Really like the potential of us going into December in a cold pattern.

[Cold Rain]

The blocking signature in the LR on the GFS is pretty good...not ideal, but pretty good nonetheless. I would rate the Pacific as neutral, which is a far better state than the last couple of years. It's not super duper though. The pattern on the map Wow posted above is cold and dry still. Without a southern stream or without a tall PNA ridge (neither of which we appear to have) it's either fropa (probably predominately moisture-starved) or squash city.

If you like cool/cold and dry, this is your pattern. If you want snow and ice, then perhaps the pattern will evolve that way. Either way, it's miles better than what was progged for November just a couple of weeks ago. And now, the CFS is showing a colder than normal December (but we all know how many times its opinion changes).

It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out. There are a lot of warm winter forecasts out there from reputable mets. But there is a lot of uncertainty this year too. It looks more and more like a cold end to November and cold start to December is in the cards. Will it turn stormy too? We've entered a drier pattern, and we're now seeing rain events dry up in the modeling as we approach the event, so that is concerning. It also doesn't mean it can't/wont change, but it does have to be given some weight. That said, I have noticed a few times lately that during the actual event, the precipitation has somewhat overperformed the guidance forecast. That bears keeping in mind as well.

We'll also need to continue to watch the temperature trends in the northeast and tropical Pacific, as I feel that might hold the ultimate key to how our winter plays out. We've been hearing lately how favorable those areas are representing. Once we stop hearing the "favorable" reports, that will be a red flag.

Anyway, this winter should be better than the last two. And it's encouraging to see the consensus of a warm start/middle/end of November yield to a likely cooler than normal month. I think that is an important thing to bear in mind as we approach winter.

[burgertime]

End of the GFS is a great look if it pans out. I think the thing to remember is that we are in November. Who knows how the rest of winter will play out but if you can't get excited by this pattern early on given the past two winters there may be no hope for you. By the way for fun it would take very little for the GFS to have a nice dump of snow just after Thankgiving. We need a good first fantasy storm on the GFS to really kick things off and would not be surprised if it happens over the next runs given the overall look. 

[superjames1992]

Perhaps the pattern can set up for a December 4, 2002 redux? I know a lot here would LOVE that! (Or not!)

Aside from the week-long power outage, that would be great. We had about 2.5" of snow, 1/2" of sleet, and another 1/2" of freezing rain from that one. Best sledding weather ever.

Other relatively recent somewhat significant early December events I can think of are that event we had in early December 2010 (before the Boxing Day Storm) and that huge storm in the Coastal Plain in 2004.

[Steven_1974]

Perhaps the pattern can set up for a December 4, 2002 redux? I know a lot here would LOVE that! (Or not!)

Aside from the week-long power outage, that would be great. We had about 2.5" of snow, 1/2" of sleet, and another 1/2" of freezing rain from that one. Best sledding weather ever.

Other relatively recent somewhat significant early December events I can think of are that event we had in early December 2010 (before the Boxing Day Storm) and that huge storm in the Coastal Plain in 2004.

 Please, anything but an ice storm of any kind. I do not want to see one of those again!

[POWERSTROKE]

Bastardi brought up a blend of Dec.1976, 1989, and 2000 vs. latest ensemble runs.

I don't remember the first two years, but Dec. of 2000 was a December to remember.

He also said major cold coming with blocking early to kick off winter. we shall see

[Bevo]

The blocking signature in the LR on the GFS is pretty good...not ideal, but pretty good nonetheless. I would rate the Pacific as neutral, which is a far better state than the last couple of years. It's not super duper though. The pattern on the map Wow posted above is cold and dry still. Without a southern stream or without a tall PNA ridge (neither of which we appear to have) it's either fropa (probably predominately moisture-starved) or squash city.

If you like cool/cold and dry, this is your pattern. If you want snow and ice, then perhaps the pattern will evolve that way. Either way, it's miles better than what was progged for November just a couple of weeks ago. And now, the CFS is showing a colder than normal December (but we all know how many times its opinion changes).

It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out. There are a lot of warm winter forecasts out there from reputable mets. But there is a lot of uncertainty this year too. It looks more and more like a cold end to November and cold start to December is in the cards. Will it turn stormy too? We've entered a drier pattern, and we're now seeing rain events dry up in the modeling as we approach the event, so that is concerning. It also doesn't mean it can't/wont change, but it does have to be given some weight. That said, I have noticed a few times lately that during the actual event, the precipitation has somewhat overperformed the guidance forecast. That bears keeping in mind as well.

We'll also need to continue to watch the temperature trends in the northeast and tropical Pacific, as I feel that might hold the ultimate key to how our winter plays out. We've been hearing lately how favorable those areas are representing. Once we stop hearing the "favorable" reports, that will be a red flag.

Anyway, this winter should be better than the last two. And it's encouraging to see the consensus of a warm start/middle/end of November yield to a likely cooler than normal month. I think that is an important thing to bear in mind as we approach winter.

 

You know - there were a ton of cold winter forecasts from reputable mets last year too.  I am over the long range guess work.  It's like picking the perfect NCAA Tourney bracket.  Most are busted in the first round.  Some may make it to the Sweet 16.  Rarely does anyone pick it perfectly.

[SnowNiner]

The blocking signature in the LR on the GFS is pretty good...not ideal, but pretty good nonetheless. I would rate the Pacific as neutral, which is a far better state than the last couple of years. It's not super duper though. The pattern on the map Wow posted above is cold and dry still. Without a southern stream or without a tall PNA ridge (neither of which we appear to have) it's either fropa (probably predominately moisture-starved) or squash city.

If you like cool/cold and dry, this is your pattern. If you want snow and ice, then perhaps the pattern will evolve that way. Either way, it's miles better than what was progged for November just a couple of weeks ago. And now, the CFS is showing a colder than normal December (but we all know how many times its opinion changes).

It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out. There are a lot of warm winter forecasts out there from reputable mets. But there is a lot of uncertainty this year too. It looks more and more like a cold end to November and cold start to December is in the cards. Will it turn stormy too? We've entered a drier pattern, and we're now seeing rain events dry up in the modeling as we approach the event, so that is concerning. It also doesn't mean it can't/wont change, but it does have to be given some weight. That said, I have noticed a few times lately that during the actual event, the precipitation has somewhat overperformed the guidance forecast. That bears keeping in mind as well.

We'll also need to continue to watch the temperature trends in the northeast and tropical Pacific, as I feel that might hold the ultimate key to how our winter plays out. We've been hearing lately how favorable those areas are representing. Once we stop hearing the "favorable" reports, that will be a red flag.

Anyway, this winter should be better than the last two. And it's encouraging to see the consensus of a warm start/middle/end of November yield to a likely cooler than normal month. I think that is an important thing to bear in mind as we approach winter.

 

This post summarizes my thoughts very nicely CR! Very good to see the cold making it here and the models showing the ability to get more cold here later on (potentially).  However I still have a lot of doubts about getting a good storm out of the good patterns shown.  I'd really like to hear about the STJ cranking up, having storms coming on shore in Southern Cal rather than Washington.  Hate hearing we need to root for the northern storm to DIG, DIG, DIG, but it never quite seems to dig enough.  It's like golf and you pitch a bit too hard and you yell BITE, BITE...., you know it never does.  You're just chipping on the other end of the green. 

[Met1985]

The blocking signature in the LR on the GFS is pretty good...not ideal, but pretty good nonetheless. I would rate the Pacific as neutral, which is a far better state than the last couple of years. It's not super duper though. The pattern on the map Wow posted above is cold and dry still. Without a southern stream or without a tall PNA ridge (neither of which we appear to have) it's either fropa (probably predominately moisture-starved) or squash city.

If you like cool/cold and dry, this is your pattern. If you want snow and ice, then perhaps the pattern will evolve that way. Either way, it's miles better than what was progged for November just a couple of weeks ago. And now, the CFS is showing a colder than normal December (but we all know how many times its opinion changes).

It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out. There are a lot of warm winter forecasts out there from reputable mets. But there is a lot of uncertainty this year too. It looks more and more like a cold end to November and cold start to December is in the cards. Will it turn stormy too? We've entered a drier pattern, and we're now seeing rain events dry up in the modeling as we approach the event, so that is concerning. It also doesn't mean it can't/wont change, but it does have to be given some weight. That said, I have noticed a few times lately that during the actual event, the precipitation has somewhat overperformed the guidance forecast. That bears keeping in mind as well.

We'll also need to continue to watch the temperature trends in the northeast and tropical Pacific, as I feel that might hold the ultimate key to how our winter plays out. We've been hearing lately how favorable those areas are representing. Once we stop hearing the "favorable" reports, that will be a red flag.

Anyway, this winter should be better than the last two. And it's encouraging to see the consensus of a warm start/middle/end of November yield to a likely cooler than normal month. I think that is an important thing to bear in mind as we approach winter.

Great post CR. Looking at the Teleconnections signs really point to the first of December for when we may start really rocking. The AO and NAO have really taking a downward trend today with the PNA coming up near neutral. We shall see if this trend holds. Like burger said we are still in November but if we can come out of this month with some blocking I think December could be a pretty good wintery month.

[1300m]

You know - there were a ton of cold winter forecasts from reputable mets last year too.  I am over the long range guess work.  It's like picking the perfect NCAA Tourney bracket.  Most are busted in the first round.  Some may make it to the Sweet 16.  Rarely does anyone pick it perfectly.

I actually feel pretty similarly. There are so many factors that *could* effect the pattern: QBO, ENSO, SSW, Siberian Snowfall, Arctic sea ice coverage, PDO, sun cycle, MJO, AO, NAO, PNA and more that it's a little dizzying to even try to figure out what effects what first and how. The bottom line is I don't think the science is there yet. We have the ability to analyze how all these various cycles effect the pattern after the fact, but we haven't cracked the code on how to use them prognostically just yet in a seasonal forecast.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge proponent of using indices and teleconnections to try to predict the next 10-14 days, but I myself have no skill beyond that time range. Other than looking at ENSO, which we struggle to even predict at times, it just seems impossible to try and predict much about how the weather is going to unfold months in advance.

 

All that said, just to add something of value I do think that we should be on the lookout for how the AO is going to trend over the coming weeks. If it does continue to trend negative, might this be a response to the 4th highest Siberian snowfall season on record this year? If we can get the AO to go over into our favor with the amount of cold air on our side of the pole, things might just get really fun in December - of course, that's not a forecast, just a thought!

[tnweathernut]

This post summarizes my thoughts very nicely CR! Very good to see the cold making it here and the models showing the ability to get more cold here later on (potentially).  However I still have a lot of doubts about getting a good storm out of the good patterns shown.  I'd really like to hear about the STJ cranking up, having storms coming on shore in Southern Cal rather than Washington.  Hate hearing we need to root for the northern storm to DIG, DIG, DIG, but it never quite seems to dig enough.  It's like golf and you pitch a bit too hard and you yell BITE, BITE...., you know it never does.  You're just chipping on the other end of the green. 

If you just take a look at the Pacific, you will see that it is looking more and more El-Ninoish every day.  There is a pretty good subtropical plume of moisture and I think that will be growing in the coming days.  Tick tock.........................can you hear the threat coming toward the end of the month?

[Brick Tamland]

You know - there were a ton of cold winter forecasts from reputable mets last year too.  I am over the long range guess work.  It's like picking the perfect NCAA Tourney bracket.  Most are busted in the first round.  Some may make it to the Sweet 16.  Rarely does anyone pick it perfectly.

 

I think the best they can do that far out is show the potential. But it can really go either way. What actually happens when we get to Decmeber is anyone's guess.

[NC_hailstorm]

Anyone notice how high the solar flux is running for November and still rising?It's 147.6 today and getting really close to the 150 line(solar max)

+QBO into a solar max is a good match for strat warming,-QBO into low solar(like last year)is also a good match according to the data.

 

Just some general obs,we'll see.

Solar flux still rising,up to 152.2 for November and into solar max.

[Bevo]

I actually feel pretty similarly. There are so many factors that *could* effect the pattern: QBO, ENSO, SSW, Siberian Snowfall, Arctic sea ice coverage, PDO, sun cycle, MJO, AO, NAO, PNA and more that it's a little dizzying to even try to figure out what effects what first and how. The bottom line is I don't think the science is there yet. We have the ability to analyze how all these various cycles effect the pattern after the fact, but we haven't cracked the code on how to use them prognostically just yet in a seasonal forecast.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge proponent of using indices and teleconnections to try to predict the next 10-14 days, but I myself have no skill beyond that time range. Other than looking at ENSO, which we struggle to even predict at times, it just seems impossible to try and predict much about how the weather is going to unfold months in advance.

 

All that said, just to add something of value I do think that we should be on the lookout for how the AO is going to trend over the coming weeks. If it does continue to trend negative, might this be a response to the 4th highest Siberian snowfall season on record this year? If we can get the AO to go over into our favor with the amount of cold air on our side of the pole, things might just get really fun in December - of course, that's not a forecast, just a thought!

 

^^^ This guy totally gets me ^^^

 

I still catch myself looking at ENSO progs with a slightly suspicious, maybe even cynical eye.  I've come to better understand it recently, especially in regards to Pacific behavior - but I think we still have miles to go in forecasting it.

 

As for the Siberian snow - It must have *some degree of an effect.  I'm going to believe that it does anyway.

 

 

I think the best they can do that far out is show the potential. But it can really go either way. What actually happens when we get to Decemeber is anyone's guess.

 

I had a hunch that the NCAA verbiage would spark your response.

[Cold Rain]

You know - there were a ton of cold winter forecasts from reputable mets last year too.  I am over the long range guess work.  It's like picking the perfect NCAA Tourney bracket.  Most are busted in the first round.  Some may make it to the Sweet 16.  Rarely does anyone pick it perfectly.

 

That's true.  That said, I'm always reticent to go in a different direction than Don S., Wes, and HM.  I have no problem hoping they are dead wrong, though.  In any event, there are a ton of conflicting signals this year, so what skill there actually is in LR forecasting, I would expect it to be even further dimished this year.

 

This post summarizes my thoughts very nicely CR! Very good to see the cold making it here and the models showing the ability to get more cold here later on (potentially).  However I still have a lot of doubts about getting a good storm out of the good patterns shown.  I'd really like to hear about the STJ cranking up, having storms coming on shore in Southern Cal rather than Washington.  Hate hearing we need to root for the northern storm to DIG, DIG, DIG, but it never quite seems to dig enough.  It's like golf and you pitch a bit too hard and you yell BITE, BITE...., you know it never does.  You're just chipping on the other end of the green. 

 

Yeah, we always get suckered into that....haha!  Every new model run you get a lot of, "It's farther west!" or "Definitely stronger than the last run!" or "Way more moisture showing up!" or "Much colder this run!"  Oh how I can't wait for those good times to start.   And yeah, been there done that on the course too.  Usually happens after fatting the first chip only 5 feet.  Then you burn the next one over the green like a champ.  Sometimes, I yell bite in somebody's backswing just to help me get a stroke back.  I don't mind messing you up.  Not at all.

 

Great post CR. Looking at the Teleconnections signs really point to the first of December for when we may start really rocking. The AO and NAO have really taking a downward trend today with the PNA coming up near neutral. We shall see if this trend holds. Like burger said we are still in November but if we can come out of this month with some blocking I think December could be a pretty good wintery month.

 

Definitely liking the trends of the indexes of late.  I would like to see the blocking/ridging in the NAO region to trend a bit west.  Seems like the past couple of years, we've seen much more east based -NAO stuff.  We'll have to watch for that.  We'll also need to make sure the old GOA vortex doesn't start saying things like, "That there's an RV....Now don't you go fallin' in love with it now, because we're taking it with us when we leave here next month."

[bobbitt]

http://t.co/USTtRUGT4W I am still waiting on my southeast  ridge too set up for winter ?

[Met1985]

That's true.  That said, I'm always reticent to go in a different direction than Don S., Wes, and HM.  I have no problem hoping they are dead wrong, though.  In any event, there are a ton of conflicting signals this year, so what skill there actually is in LR forecasting, I would expect it to be even further dimished this year.

 

 

Yeah, we always get suckered into that....haha!  Every new model run you get a lot of, "It's farther west!" or "Definitely stronger than the last run!" or "Way more moisture showing up!" or "Much colder this run!"  Oh how I can't wait for those good times to start.   And yeah, been there done that on the course too.  Usually happens after fatting the first chip only 5 feet.  Then you burn the next one over the green like a champ.  Sometimes, I yell bite in somebody's backswing just to help me get a stroke back.  I don't mind messing you up.  Not at all.

 

 

Definitely liking the trends of the indexes of late.  I would like to see the blocking/ridging in the NAO region to trend a bit west.  Seems like the past couple of years, we've seen much more east based -NAO stuff.  We'll have to watch for that.  We'll also need to make sure the old GOA vortex doesn't start saying things like, "That there's an RV....Now don't you go fallin' in love with it now, because we're taking it with us when we leave here next month."

Ya the GOA vortex I hope is a non factor leading into winter. From what I am seeing the EPO is suppose to go negative and and stay negative in the Mid range which should help keep that vortex away from AK.

[BIG FROSTY]

He also said major cold coming with blocking early to kick off winter. we shall see

Don't know whether to root for early winter or not? If it comes in harsh and early, we'll be planting garden second week of February!!! 

[dsaur]

 Please, anything but an ice storm of any kind. I do not want to see one of those again!

Ha, is sounds like you have something akin to my " z monster in Atlanta, in '73" syndrome   But now, 5 inches of sleet, as opposed to zrain, is a thing of beauty!  Don't worry about it until we start getting real rain, otherwise it's just bitter, sunny days.....T

[Cold Rain]

Solar flux still rising,up to 152.2 for November and into solar max.

I appreciate the updates on this man. I really do...but what does it mean for us? I mean, what should I be routing for for cold and snow? Do we like the values you posted, or do they suck and it's already all over?

[POWERSTROKE]

Don't know whether to root for early winter or not? If it comes in harsh and early, we'll be planting garden second week of February!!!

As long as we get wintry weather DEC and Jan I could careless about Feb. We are in SE so I don't expect a 4 month winter

[Met1985]

I appreciate the updates on this man. I really do...but what does it mean for us? I mean, what should I be routing for for cold and snow? Do we like the values you posted, or do they suck and it's already all over?

The higher the number and the more solar flux we have it could translate into a positive AO and NAO kind of like 2011/12 but this year is different in which we have a strong negative EPO which is not conducive for the AK vortex to develop.

[Cold Rain]

The higher the number and the more solar flux we have it could translate into a positive AO and NAO kind of like 2011/12 but this year is different in which we have a strong negative EPO which is not conducive for the AK vortex to develop.

Ok, it didn't sound the best, but I didn't know for sure. So the stuff NC Hailstorm posted is not the direction we want to see things go. We'll just have to hope it turns around or has no ill effect on the pattern. Thanks man.

[Stovepipe]

I actually feel pretty similarly. There are so many factors that *could* effect the pattern: QBO, ENSO, SSW, Siberian Snowfall, Arctic sea ice coverage, PDO, sun cycle, MJO, AO, NAO, PNA and more that it's a little dizzying to even try to figure out what effects what first and how. The bottom line is I don't think the science is there yet. We have the ability to analyze how all these various cycles effect the pattern after the fact, but we haven't cracked the code on how to use them prognostically just yet in a seasonal forecast.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge proponent of using indices and teleconnections to try to predict the next 10-14 days, but I myself have no skill beyond that time range. Other than looking at ENSO, which we struggle to even predict at times, it just seems impossible to try and predict much about how the weather is going to unfold months in advance.

 

All that said, just to add something of value I do think that we should be on the lookout for how the AO is going to trend over the coming weeks. If it does continue to trend negative, might this be a response to the 4th highest Siberian snowfall season on record this year? If we can get the AO to go over into our favor with the amount of cold air on our side of the pole, things might just get really fun in December - of course, that's not a forecast, just a thought!

 

Thissity this this.  We are probably on the verge of cracking the code, perhaps within 10 or 20 years, but for now we just have to look for patterns in the data and hypothesize.  I've seen no consistent skill from anyone going beyond about 15 days (tops).  The possible exception might be Don Sutherland, who seems to at least have a finger on the vague pulse of warmer/colder and dryer/wetter using his statistical voodoo.  Regardless, I'll take this game over just about any other "sport" out there.  Roll the dice mother nature, let's see what you got!