Cold Rain Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 There goes the -NAO on the Euro by D7 Not ideal, but should provide some chilly weather. Nice AK vortex. Hmmmm.... And where's my southern stream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 ..and then pushes it away. Stingy arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 This is really ironic, we're getting the cold and even some wintery precip but we're still waiting for the pattern (NAO, PNA, AO) to flip. Interesting weather..... Now if we can just keep things going until the pattern flips, we mights be in bizness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Seen lots of discussion about this winter and overall there again is much disagreement on what's going to happen (warm/cold). Frankly I don't put much stock in long range forecasts as I just personally have never seen too many work out consistently (maybe I'm not looking hard enough). Hurricane forecasts are just a joke, IMO. With that said, the MA forum is discussing the pacific tempatures and how the November temps have a solid correlation to December cold. If I read it right, it seems like the warming pacific currently shown favors more cold in the US for December. At the link, "HM" provides interesting graphics showing the November/December correlation. This stands out to me because Robert has been harping on this for a while too, that that is a key change and difference this year than previous years. The Pacific is warming in the right spot, not cooling like previous years. With everything else the same, the biggest ingredient to a possibly better overall winter may be that factor, and it has me somewhat optimistic. Having the +NAO/AO hasn't stopped record cold from paying us a visit in the south. That's impressive to me. I still have many questions about seeing a STJ and getting storms to stay south to actually get snow, but I think the cold may get here a little easier this year. That's my hope anyway. So far, so good. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41684-2013-2014-capital-weather-gang-winter-outlook/page-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 HM posted these images in the Mid-Atl subforum. He plotted November SST anomalies compared to 1981-2010 climo and then plotted the temps in the following Decembers. There are a few things to watch out for over the next few weeks: 1. Warm pool evolution between 30-50°N and 180-140°W in the North Pacific. Out of the 20 or so neutral years since 1950, there hasn't been many with this feature as pronounced as 2013. The best matches are 1989, 1985 and 1961. Very close, and certainly worthy of any analog set, are 2001 and 1990, which were displaced west of this year's pool (and subsequently more cooling near North America) and 1996 which was displaced east. These are the only 6! They all were significantly correlated to December's warm surface temperature anomalies in Pacific and Arctic Cold coming down into N. America. Not only that but the warm / cool areas were displaced with the warm pool (1990/2001 is shifted west). Will the warm pool this November remain as strong as it is now or will it waffle back SW? 2. Of the 20 neutral Decembers, only 4 had a positive AO. Of the 16 that were slightly negative to strongly negative, 7 had a positive November AO. As Matt already suggested, this wasn't the make-or-break deal in December for the Mid Atlantic. The Pacific was more important. 3. The MJO. Years that took on a more "El Nino-like" appearance across the CONUS generally had the MJO arrive sooner and affect more of the month. The years that had the typical RNA-La Nina style look basically had a much later arriving MJO (usually arriving late-month). There were really only 3 "blowtorch" Decembers for the CONUS (1959, 2001, 2012), all-of-which for different reasons. It is quite possible December could be significantly colder than normal for much of the CONUS, should the La Nina-QBO-N PAC warm pool dominate the flow. Our area will likely modify with SE-ridge effects; but, overall, plenty of cold. This is even true should the AO remain positive. If the forcing comes along and ruins this relationship, adding its El Nino-like influence, it would cause a hybrid type of circulation with many scenarios. Pretty interesting correlation, I compiled all of them in photoshop into one image for an easier comparision. The top maps are SST anoms. bottom maps are december temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 We had our popular thread on guessing the first day with high's in the 50's in October. We didn't have a thread for the 40's, but now that many of us have had a day with highs in the 40's, is anyone interested in guessing the first day with high's in the 30s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 We had our popular thread on guessing the first day with high's in the 50's in October. We didn't have a thread for the 40's, but now that many of us have had a day with highs in the 40's, is anyone interested in guessing the first day with high's in the 30s? next weds/thurs with the next cold blast, gfs and euro are absolutely frigid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 I think you may be right, Southern. The cold may be transient, but it sure is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 WxSouth8 hours ago Interesting how the cold air is stronger, and the warmups have been falsely modeled for so long now, especially where Southeast is concerned. We've had almost every month below normal in the Temps department since last Feburary, with maybe exception of September.Looking ahead, the SST anomalies continue to trend closer to a NINO than not. Pacific continues warming, not cooling (vast difference from previous two years). With already two strong negative NAO periods this Fall under our belt, as we get deeper into the Winter season the effects of the Neg. NAO, Neg. AO return again (and already it's about to head that way---Hello Blocking!) then I can see the first Widespread Winter Storm in the Eastern, possibly part of the Southeast to MidAtlantic region as well. The cold air is widely available this time, and was a key missing ingredient in the nonstop roast-fest of 2011 and 2012. Tide has definitely been turning the last 9 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Corey Elder @coreywxelder 2h next cold shot coming the 19th 12z ECMWF http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2013111312/east/ecm_t850_east_7.png … and 12z GFS agreeing http://models.weatherbell.com/gfs/2013111312/east/gfs_z850_uv_t_east_51.png … #onstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 CPC now suggesting the rest of month will have below normal temps. Wish we had this in December instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 I think you may be right, Southern. The cold may be transient, but it sure is impressive. Indeed. The strength of these high pressure systems have been impressive to say the least. The cold air is beating expectations while the warm ups are brief and tame, and mostly while the AO has held solidly + since mid October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Mike Masco @MascoFromABC2 6m European ensembles confirm my idea.. HARSH blast will LOCK in. This isn't a two day deal! Time frame:Next week/beyond pic.twitter.com/7Qslmcobbp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Mike Masco @MascoFromABC2 6m European ensembles confirm my idea.. HARSH blast will LOCK in. This isn't a two day deal! Time frame:Next week/beyond pic.twitter.com/7Qslmcobbp Not really sure about anything locking in but the GFS is advertising another very cold shot next week that could be colder than what we are seeing currently. Very impressive for the way the teleconnections look right know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Well it's 11/17 and at 6:06 pm I'm sitting at 32 degrees after a full day of sunshine. If this is a bad pattern don't hand me a good one. Would like to see more moisture though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Well it's 11/17 and at 6:06 pm I'm sitting at 32 degrees after a full day of sunshine. If this is a bad pattern don't hand me a good one. Would like to see more moisture though! Dude, heavy!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 how do ya like these temps for next week...18z next weds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Gadzooks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Severe Weather Blog @blizzardof96 2h @MascoFromABC2 @ericfisher West pac pattern argues for a nov 24-28 cold shot with east based block. Storminess favoured over the interior. Details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 how do ya like these temps for next week...18z next weds. Impressively cold. These are similar lows to the current cold airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 -epo ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Impressively cold. These are similar lows to the current cold airmass. 2013/2014 May be know as the year of "Frozen Pipes". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 how do ya like these temps for next week...18z next weds. Thems is January temps, this whole thread is time warped! Y'all messin with my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Impressively cold. These are similar lows to the current cold airmass.Those actually will be lows for that day. That is the 6 hour minimum map, NOT the 18z temps. Those are a quite a bit warmer than that map shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Those actually will be lows for that day. That is the 6 hour minimum map, NOT the 18z temps. Those are a quite a bit warmer than that map shows. I realize they are lows since they are lows for the 12Z-18Z period. That's why I said they are similar to the lows of the current airmass. Yeah, the actual 18Z (1 PM EST) or max for the 12-18Z period) would probably be just a little under the highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 I realize they are lows since they are lows for the 12Z-18Z period. That's why I said they are similar to the lows of the current airmass. Yeah, the actual 18Z (1 PM EST) or max for the 12-18Z period) would probably be just a little under the highs.OK I misunderstood you then, my mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Greenland blocking becoming more certain now. Just need the pac jet re-amplify to get things moving down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Greenland blocking becoming more certain now. Just need the pac jet re-amplify to get things moving down. Two paid site mets have been talking about this for a while now. Both agree pattern looks to be favoring us in early December. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Early December would be great for a cold pattern to establish itself across the east. (at that point) Many of us in the SE are far enough into the season to be able to get a significant winter storm. A cold pattern earlier than that (like now) is nice but usually does not provide what most here are looking for. Outside of mountains - Prime time to look/hope for winter storms is from early December to early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Bastardi brought up a blend of Dec.1976, 1989, and 2000 vs. latest ensemble runs. I don't remember the first two years, but Dec. of 2000 was a December to remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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