Shack Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 My flurry hopes dashed, I, along with Tony, look for comfort in the CPC 6-10 day precipitation forecast. "Above average". That's something that I don't think I've seen since June. (and only heard a few times in my whole life;) This jives with the GFS wanting to bring some love out of Peter's Mudhole next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 the fishel cold this week is making me winterize the camper. should have done it already with lows having hit the mid twenties a few times. yep thinking about doing mine to but thought about a trip for the upcoming weekend. May just turn heat on during cold nights this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Its hard to believe that there is a 1042mb high pressure in ND in mid nov!! I really hope this is a sign of the things to come this winter. Its going to be cold and windy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Anyone notice how high the solar flux is running for November and still rising?It's 147.6 today and getting really close to the 150 line(solar max) +QBO into a solar max is a good match for strat warming,-QBO into low solar(like last year)is also a good match according to the data. Just some general obs,we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 If we can get the pattern to block in the East and stop being so progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 If we can get the pattern to block in the East and stop being so progressive Go on, don't leave me hanging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Go on, don't leave me hanging.transient fishel cold shot incoming mid week next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 If we can get the pattern to block in the East and stop being so progressiveits November it would be a waste. let the fall cutter train begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Not a waste if it snows, which it has before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Noticed this afternoon's Euro was still pretty amped up in the Day 9-10 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 It's rather notable that we're getting these rather substantial cold HP systems despite a strong +AO/NAO. Here we are about to greet a 1045mb high in the next couple of days. The high amplitude in the wave pattern out in the Pacific has been the big player here. If and when a sizable block does punch its way into the arctic/greenland region, we'll be ready to roll as far as storminess and prolonged cold goes. For now, enjoy the old fashioned fall weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 This is the kind of thing we want to occur to get the NAO back to negative territory - PV setting up over SE Canada. Plus the Aleutian Low holding on to keep the HP systems coming through.. unlike last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 This is the kind of thing we want to occur to get the NAO back to negative territory - PV setting up over SE Canada. Plus the Aleutian Low holding on to keep the HP systems coming through.. unlike last year. can you post the ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Im liking the tendancy for some of these teleconnections around the 21st. Nothing awesome.. and it prob won't be prologned.. but a step in the right way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 talk about a negative nao on the op gfs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Models looking a little blocky by D10 and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 GFS showing 3-4 inches of rain and 70-75 degrees for me next Monday before the cold hits again. Sure hope that pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 talk about a negative nao on the op gfs! This is why we don't look at the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 GFS showing 3-4 inches of rain and 70-75 degrees for me next Monday before the cold hits again. Sure hope that pans out. That would be great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 We now have a full 24 hours worth of model cycles (Tues 0z/12z and Wed 0z) where the GFS develops a blocking pattern in the latter part of the run. All three runs show a different evolution but they all lead to a variation of blocking over Baffin Bay or Greenland by Thanksgiving Week. Depending on exactly how this forms, we could be headed to a really fun pattern after the holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Euro splitting the PV over the pole with the ridge now shown punching into Greenland as well. Before, this ridge was being shunted east toward Scandinavia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Funny how we are seeing this kind of cold with a very positive AO, negative PNA, and positive NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1300m Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Euro splitting the PV over the pole with the ridge now shown punching into Greenland as well. Before, this ridge was being shunted east toward Scandinavia. *IF* this unfolds, this would likely portend another coming Arctic shot (and who knows what else) by Thanksgiving week. Certainly something to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Yeah, so apparently this type of teleconnection does not preclude very cold weather. It only precludes sustained longterm very cold weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Yeah, so apparently this type of teleconnection does not preclude very cold weather. It only precludes sustained longterm very cold weather. This is really ironic, we're getting the cold and even some wintery precip but we're still waiting for the pattern (NAO, PNA, AO) to flip. Interesting weather..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 This is really ironic, we're getting the cold and even some wintery precip but we're still waiting for the pattern (NAO, PNA, AO) to flip. Interesting weather..... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 RT @MascoFromABC2: The #Canadian model robust on BRUTAL air building over southern Canada&massive height build over #Greenland http://pic.twitter.com/ThjUZdfjR8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 I hope so. I'm already getting tired of these side swipe highs. What we need is one to blast all the way down to Fla, stay a few days, or more, and slap the fool out of MetalMan when he steps outside Meanwhile the rain still has a gulf component, but not as impressive as a week back Funny how that works. Oh, well, some blocking will cure a lot of ills. Let it be so. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Goofy certainly advertising some syrup-making weather day 7-8. Teens all the way down to Wayburg ! Not likely, but Metalic, you might want to bring your pet alligators inside for the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 There goes the -NAO on the Euro by D7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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