November 2013 pattern and discussion

[LithiaWx]

I'll go ahead and state something many of you are thinking.

 

Early-Mid November snow outside of the mountains? Climo says no way.

 

This will either be a once in a 100 year type of deal or the models are faking us out before we even get to December 1st.  Pretty much win win in my book.  I tend to take a cynical or contrarian point of view so it would be fun to watch the fallout from the model fakeouts but also pretty awesome to see some flakes fly next week as well.

[mackerel_sky]

Hundred year events have to happen sometime! Why not a snow event for a lot of us? It's only 4 days out and things are being sniffed out. The 18z GFS was a thing of beauty! With a high like that coming down , the cold air will be around.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

I'll go ahead and state something many of you are thinking.

 

Early-Mid November snow outside of the mountains? Climo says no way.

 

This will either be a once in a 100 year type of deal or the models are faking us out before we even get to December 1st.  Pretty much win win in my book.  I tend to take a cynical or contrarian point of view so it would be fun to watch the fallout from the model fakeouts but also pretty awesome to see some flakes fly next week as well.

 

Climo says no way due to the fact that it is usually too warm in the mid/lower levels this time of year for snow. However, this push of cold air "as modeled" is cold enough. This makes it a real threat. If we get the precip with those type of soundings it will snow..... regardless of the time of year. The uncertainty lies in the amount of precip..... not whether it will be cold enough.

[Jon]

The euro has piqued my curiosity about next weeks setup. Even though the GFS is a whiff at the moment in comparison, 18z gives some semblance of cutoff potential at H5 around 114hrs, you can see the energy trying but it did not quite get there. 

11/8 18z@114

gfs18114.JPG

 

11/8 0z@132

gfs00132.JPG

 

 

Allan commented about the 150kt jet streak showing up off the NC/VA coast on twitter (on the 12z GFS), mentioned it would argue for development further west than what that particular run showed.  

 

250mb from the 18z @114

18250jet.JPG

Could it be that energy in eastern Canada being much further south and kicking the vort not allowing it to close off? I think that particular area of energy is also almost non-existent on the Euro runs that have the cutoff and big qpf solutions.

[Shawn]

Well, Noaa just added rain/snow for KCAE on the tv. ;(  its never happening.

[valkhorn]

Hundred year events have to happen sometime! Why not a snow event for a lot of us? It's only 4 days out and things are being sniffed out. The 18z GFS was a thing of beauty! With a high like that coming down , the cold air will be around.

 

The Appalachian Storm of 1950 hammered Knoxville... so it's already happened for us before I was even born.

[WeatherNC]

Could it be that energy in eastern Canada being much further south and kicking the vort not allowing it to close off? I think that particular area of energy is also almost non-existent on the Euro runs that have the cutoff and big qpf solutions.

 

The vortex over New Foundland and Labrador is very important, both models have it, small degrees of variability at this range with regards to seperation from the long wave axis.  The GFS does differ with a stronger piece of energy diving just south of the Hudson Bay.  The 0z GFS graphic I posted above looks similar to the Euro for that particular area, the 18z GFS image shows a polar vortexone the west side of the Hudson Bay around 498dm, something the ECMWF is missing.  Below is the 12z euro h5 at 120, timestamp should be the same as the gfs images above, 12z next Wednesday.

 

[Wow]

The atmosphere isn't even marginal. We'd kill for the sounding in 95% of the events we get.

 

Yep.  It's a solid snow profile

 

[DopplerWx]

im just thankful to have a small taste of winter storm mode, anxiosuly awaiting each model and staying up for the euro.  a heck of a lot of fun for november!

[BullCityWx]

Yep. It's a solid snow profile

Really nice humidities up to the 300 level too.

[dsaur]

I'll go ahead and state something many of you are thinking.

 

Early-Mid November snow outside of the mountains? Climo says no way.

 

This will either be a once in a 100 year type of deal or the models are faking us out before we even get to December 1st.  Pretty much win win in my book.  I tend to take a cynical or contrarian point of view so it would be fun to watch the fallout from the model fakeouts but also pretty awesome to see some flakes fly next week as well.

 What tickles me is I could win my non bet with Burnsy on the first event of the season, and it's not even winter.  I think the cold is coming, but I'm more sceptical of the moisture.  We haven't had much of a track record lately in Ga.   If it could produce more than a few flurries, virga storms, I'd be hopeful for the rest of the winter.  It always gets cold in winter, but can it produce rain as well?  I sure hope so. T

[WeatherNC]

Unpinning the Nov pattern and disco thread, please take all disco for next week to QC's semi guarantee SN sounding thread http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41647-potential-mid-november-event/

 

Thanks!  

 

Next Friday+ let it rip here.

[DCMetroWinston]

Larry Cosgrove:  "As to where we go on and after Thanksgiving week, the ENSO signals and early 500MB indicators would seem to favor a colder turn for most of the nation. Some may disagree (because no three month averages show this set-up), but the current equatorial Pacific Ocean SST anomaly signal is very much like a weak west-based "Modoki" El Nino episode (look at the TAO/TRITON illustration for proof....). That is a teleconnection favoring eventual build-up of -EPO and -AO blocking signatures. Note also that in the first week of November, the upper level features showed extensive ridging at high latitudes (Alaska and Canada), with negative height anomalies over the western three-quarters of the U.S. Admittedly, the snow cover could be more widespread, and the lack of a clear water temperature trend in the Gulf of Alaska are arguments against predicting any mad rush of bitter cold or early-season blizzards. But if we follow the 1981-82 analog, which overall seems the closest to this fall, our "up-and-down" character of October and November may turn into a solid run of tundra-like conditions in the period from Christmas 2013 to Valentine's Day 2014.

Just be patient, winter weather enthusiasts."

[GaWx]

Larry Cosgrove:  "As to where we go on and after Thanksgiving week, the ENSO signals and early 500MB indicators would seem to favor a colder turn for most of the nation. Some may disagree (because no three month averages show this set-up), but the current equatorial Pacific Ocean SST anomaly signal is very much like a weak west-based "Modoki" El Nino episode (look at the TAO/TRITON illustration for proof....). That is a teleconnection favoring eventual build-up of -EPO and -AO blocking signatures. Note also that in the first week of November, the upper level features showed extensive ridging at high latitudes (Alaska and Canada), with negative height anomalies over the western three-quarters of the U.S. Admittedly, the snow cover could be more widespread, and the lack of a clear water temperature trend in the Gulf of Alaska are arguments against predicting any mad rush of bitter cold or early-season blizzards. But if we follow the 1981-82 analog, which overall seems the closest to this fall, our "up-and-down" character of October and November may turn into a solid run of tundra-like conditions in the period from Christmas 2013 to Valentine's Day 2014.

Just be patient, winter weather enthusiasts."

 

 I think Cosgrove and Bastardi are overhyping and stretching with this continual weak El Ninoish talk for this winter. Barring a miracle, this winter will be neutral, something I've pretty much been saying for awhile.

[metalicwx366]

Larry Cosgrove: "As to where we go on and after Thanksgiving week, the ENSO signals and early 500MB indicators would seem to favor a colder turn for most of the nation. Some may disagree (because no three month averages show this set-up), but the current equatorial Pacific Ocean SST anomaly signal is very much like a weak west-based "Modoki" El Nino episode (look at the TAO/TRITON illustration for proof....). That is a teleconnection favoring eventual build-up of -EPO and -AO blocking signatures. Note also that in the first week of November, the upper level features showed extensive ridging at high latitudes (Alaska and Canada), with negative height anomalies over the western three-quarters of the U.S. Admittedly, the snow cover could be more widespread, and the lack of a clear water temperature trend in the Gulf of Alaska are arguments against predicting any mad rush of bitter cold or early-season blizzards. But if we follow the 1981-82 analog, which overall seems the closest to this fall, our "up-and-down" character of October and November may turn into a solid run of tundra-like conditions in the period from Christmas 2013 to Valentine's Day 2014.

Just be patient, winter weather enthusiasts."

lol

[Cold Rain]

Where does Cosgrove give updates now? What's the website?

[Wow]

Euro looking to bring the first arctic outbreak of the season by D10.  That's a serious temp gradient:

 

 

Looks like this will set off a new -NAO pattern as this trough digs in and pumps up hts over Greenland

 

[DCMetroWinston]

I receive Larry Cosgrove's newsletter updates via email. He also has a Facebook Page.

[Cold Rain]

Awesome, thank you!

[metalicwx366]

Monster storm on the Euro at 216 hours in the Great Lakes. Look how tight the isobars are. The storm also brings down some very cold air.

[burgertime]

Euro looking to bring the first arctic outbreak of the season by D10.  That's a serious temp gradient:

 

 

 

Looks like this will set off a new -NAO pattern as this trough digs in and pumps up hts over Greenland

 

 

 

Yep that's a good look if it can keep. That cold air is diving hard fast at the end of the Euro run.

[NCCatawba]

Monster storm on the Euro at 216 hours in the Great Lakes. Look how tight the isobars are. The storm also brings down some very cold air.

 

I like the Thanksgiving Week eye candy on the 12z GFS. Widespread snow from Texas to Ohio. Holiday weather hype ftw.

[Suncat]

Just like last winter, this far out, any hint of a major storm has to be taken with five pounds of salt.  It's very pretty to look at, but likely to change many times before zero hour. The best winter storms we've had in central NC have been the ones that were not forecast a week or more in advance.

[Met1985]

Euro looking to bring the first arctic outbreak of the season by D10.  That's a serious temp gradient:

 

 

Looks like this will set off a new -NAO pattern as this trough digs in and pumps up hts over Greenland

 

Ya the Euro has really shown this type setup albeit out past 7 days for several runs know. GFS has not jumped on but we will see. That trough means business.

[DCMetroWinston]

Brad Panovich: I know we are all talking a few flakes of ‪#‎snOMG‬ but the real story maybe next week. 19th-20th when Arctic air invades the U.S. big time!

[metalicwx366]

Brad Panovich: I know we are all talking a few flakes of ‪#‎snOMG‬ but the real story maybe next week. 19th-20th when Arctic air invades the U.S. big time!

I hope he is right. Most likely the models will back off on the cold air like always.

[Met1985]

I hope he is right. Most likely the models will back off on the cold air like always.

Maybe but the Euro seems to be getting colder as we go on in time with this push of cold air. But this weeks cold front will be no slouch either.

[Marion_NC_WX]

This is an interesting look on the GFS tonight post-truncation. Sharpen that ridge out west a little bit and you might have that cold drop down something similar to the 12z Euro.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Stovepipe]

That is straight up Fishel cold right there.

[franklin NCwx]

That is straight up Fishel cold right there.

the fishel cold this week is making me winterize the camper. should have done it already with lows having hit the mid twenties a few times.