valkhorn Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I'll probably plan a hike up to Mt. Leconte on Wednesday. I'll take my camera. There will probably be snow up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Does anyone know if there were substantial changes to the GFS at this point or were any upgrades held up (or even taken off the table completely) by the government shutdown? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Looking closer at Bufkit, the OP GFS is like "loltoowarm" even if snow wanted to fall with such shallow moisture.. it would melt or evaporate before it hit the ground off the 12z OP run. Hopefully you guys in NC might can see a little something though! KCAE: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 WxSouth had this to say: I wouldn't get my hopes up on a big snow event in the east based on the trends and the fact that Euro sometimes is a little rough in its 7 to 10 day progs lately, but sometimes what's originally modeled gets brought back later on, and the fact both major globals have had a major cutoff in the East before means there's a lot of conflict with how they're handling the Western Ridge at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 This would definitely get things blocked up with these cutoff lows dropping into the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 This is really why I brought up this past January as an example - there aren't many differences between now and then, in this scenario. Both were modeled in progressive flows. Both saw the Euro throw out a snow map that seemed dialed in for a few days. Both also featured the GFS backing off on each or every other run, eventually proving it's solutions to be closer to the actual conclusion. The only real difference is that January had climo on it's side. Seems like there's a learning opportunity in here somewhere. The looming cold is a different story, and one I hope continues to show up in game shape this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 The 12Z FRI Doc clown has record high November snows from Atlanta down to Tony's place and over to Athens and also Lookout's abode. Fun to look at but there's no way I'm buying that the greatest November snowstorm in 135+ years will occur! Also, I suspect the clown is just playing with us. I'd have a lot of doubt that nearly that much would actually accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 The 12Z FRI Doc has record high November snows from Atlanta down to Tony's place. Fun to look at but there's no way I'm buying that the greatest November snowstorm in 135+ years will occur! You're probably right. It will probably trend north 3 days out or just not happen at all even to the north. Specific EURO totals: 1.2 Winston Salem 1.0 Boone 1.8 Charlotte Large swath of 2-3" in SC/GA. Swath of 2-4.8" in Wilmington, NC north-east, 0.3" northern Waycross, GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I don't think this threat is over quite yet. I mean Euro still shows a closed low and snow in SC NC and VA. It is still up in the air. GFS has never been good in the 84-160 hr range. I guess we all will be up watching the EURO tonight haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 November snowstorm in Atlanta. This is totally happening per latest modeling. In the end I think Atlanta gets clobbered and most of nc will get shafted save the mountains. SC is a toss up but the NC lowlands are screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 NWS Greenville One thing we are more certain of is that it will be a chilly middle-to-late week...as Arctic high pressure builds into the region inassociation with the trough. In fact...p-type concerns (rain vssnow) remain with any precipitation that does manage to develop Tuesdaynight/Wednesday morning...as intense cold advection overtakes the area.European model (ecmwf) forecast soundings for Wednesday morning would support snow as farsouth as the I-85 corridor. Similar to yesterday...we will advertisea largely climatology-based p-type forecast...snow over most of themountains...ra/sn mix across the far northern Piedmont/foothillsareas...and -ra elsewhere. However...it must be stressed thatconfidence remains atypically low. NWS Blacksburg Tuesday night into Wednesday...a wave of energy rides north alongthe departing front...stalls it over eastern VA/NC...and the lowthen deepens as it then progresses north along the Delaware-Maryland-Virginiapeninsula. This developing feature will build back moisture into thecold air that will be continuing to arrive into the region in thewake of the cold front. The eastern extent of the forecast areawould receive the greatest amount of precipiation...with the westernparts of the area...the least. Snow would be most probable Tuesdaynight across the mountains...and along and north of the RoanokeRiver basin...with rain elsewhere. On Wednesday...as temperaturesmoderate...the snow would transition back to rain at most locationseast of the Blue Ridge with isolated rain or snow showers in themountains. Wednesday night...precipitation would end from west toeast in ever decreasing coverage as the coastal low continues on itsnortherly track. However...heading into the overnight...temperatureswill again fall back to under or around freezing...and a transitionback to rain/snow would take place in areas that experienced onlyrain during the day Wednesday. Quantitative precipitation forecast values have trended significantlylower than past few model runs during the 48 hours ending Thursdaymorning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 November snowstorm in Atlanta. This is totally happening per latest modeling. In the end I think Atlanta gets clobbered and most of nc will get shafted save the mountains. SC is a toss up but the NC lowlands are screwed Ha. I'm going to stick with climo and say cold rain for everyone on the SE forum (except the mountain folk in NC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Here is the Canadian. Van Denton FOX8 WGHP TV IF you are a fan of snow.....you better hope the Canadian and European Models are correct. You will not like the GFS. I will show what they each are projecting today on the 5 and 6 pm news. Hope to see you then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Ha. I'm going to stick with climo and say cold rain for everyone on the SE forum (except the mountain folk in NC) I'm pretty sure he was being sarcastic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Don't look now but the GFS is coming in with a lot more moisture. Gives western NC and northern SC some nice snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 18z GFS hour 99 102 105 108 111 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 18z GFS not great, but better. Looks a lot like the 12z Canadian. It does show lee side troughing / enhancement SE of the mountains that Moto mentioned. This really reminds me a lot of the event this past Feb with crashing heights just west of the apps...but this one looks a bit more positive tilt, so not quite as good...we'll see where it goes from here. GFS is good with how it handles the lee side enhancement look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 You can see on that first map above the lee side low in E Georgia with the big bulge in the isobars....you like to see properly placed jet dynamics to help with lift too (right entrance or left exit region of jet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 18z GFS not great, but better. Looks a lot like the 12z Canadian. It does show lee side troughing / enhancement SE of the mountains that Moto mentioned. This really reminds me a lot of the event this past Feb with crashing heights just west of the apps...but this one looks a bit more positive tilt, so not quite as good...we'll see where it goes from here. GFS is good with how it handles the lee side enhancement look. This thought has crossed my mind and shows very striking similarities with what happened then. That is what the GFS,GGem and clown map dgex has really been simulating imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 So, both the Euro and GFS are giving mby a quick 2 to 3 inches of snow late Tuesday night. Can I cash out my chips now??? It looks to me like there isn’t even a concern with boundary layer temps. Lower level temps quickly wetbulb below zero on both models once precip starts. The only question is how much qpf can we squeeze out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 So, both the Euro and GFS are giving mby a quick 2 to 3 inches of snow late Tuesday night. Can I cash out my chips now??? It looks to me like there isn’t even a concern with boundary layer temps. Lower level temps quickly wetbulb below zero on both models once precip starts. The only question is how much qpf can we squeeze out. During the Lee trough snow here in Feb the temps went from low 40s to near freezing in less than an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 i still can't get over the fact that the models show SNOW in nc, sc and ga for mid NOVEMBER inside 120hrs. just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Looks like the November 21st,2008 system lately. That put down about a half inch here and covered the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Timing on the GFS benefits foothills/mountains of NC...1-3" Wednesday morning. Will make things tougher down east near Raleigh if it comes in later for them. Of course timing will change this far out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 The sounding is really impressive from the GFS for KCLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 The atmosphere isn't even marginal. We'd kill for the sounding in 95% of the events we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 So, both the Euro and GFS are giving mby a quick 2 to 3 inches of snow late Tuesday night. Can I cash out my chips now??? It looks to me like there isn’t even a concern with boundary layer temps. Lower level temps quickly wetbulb below zero on both models once precip starts. The only question is how much qpf can we squeeze out. I know right. We Upstate SC residents need to take a trip to Vegas ASAP. I need to get Bloo Q Kazoo bouncing again also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I know right. We Upstate SC residents need to take a trip to Vegas ASAP. I need to get Bloo Q Kazoo bouncing again also. Look who's back.......the blue turd. It's been a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 The euro has piqued my curiosity about next weeks setup. Even though the GFS is a whiff at the moment in comparison, 18z gives some semblance of cutoff potential at H5 around 114hrs, you can see the energy trying but it did not quite get there. 11/8 18z@114 11/8 0z@132 Allan commented about the 150kt jet streak showing up off the NC/VA coast on twitter (on the 12z GFS), mentioned it would argue for development further west than what that particular run showed. 250mb from the 18z @114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 The atmosphere isn't even marginal. We'd kill for the sounding in 95% of the events we get. Even down here in Atlanta the soundings are perfect for a time. Sample from the 18Z GFS Wednesday 12Z - 2M - 28 DP - 24 925MB -3c 850MB -4c 500MB -23c 500-1000MB Thickness - 532 North Wind at 9MPH Light precip falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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