November 2013 pattern and discussion

[WxJordan]

Here we go! Warm to start, hopefully cooling down by the end.

[BullCityWx]

Looking cool next Monday.

[WxJordan]

Looking cool next Monday.

 

Agreed, but the first half of November overall looks to be warmer than average. Hopefully we will begin to cool things down to below average by the end of November and moving forward. I am really looking forward to some snow, just not on December 14. I have a small thing called graduation and we do not need any snow.

[NCCatawba]

D0 drought conditions forming over much of NC now. We need some rain in November the outlook is not looking so good for winter.

 

[mackerel_sky]

These lame frontal bands are getting old! We need rain!! And waiting ten days to two weeks + for them to get here , only to dissapoint

[FallsLake]

The indices are about as bad as it can get; NAO is positive, PNA is negative, and AO is positive. Luckily this is not January 1st. Maybe we can get everything to switch on December 1st.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

[FLweather]

Looking cool next Monday.

Yup. Even after monday its not going to be torch or scorch. The warmest temps will be west of the Apps into the Ms/Oh vallies until the next frontal passage later next week. Most of next week will be average due to the placement of the HP center. Euro, GFS,GEM show baggines of the HP or a CAD configuration. So will probably have a cooler air mass influence by the ocean temps east of the Apps.

 

These lame frontal bands are getting old! We need rain!! And waiting ten days to two weeks + for them to get here , only to dissapoint

Just give it time... there is a distrubance over m/w which should help refocus storms and showers along the front later this afternoon with daytime heating. The front is still back in the mountains and west of ATL.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l12&region=us

[Bevo]

D0 drought conditions forming over much of NC now. We need some rain in November the outlook is not looking so good for winter.

 

 

How well has this performed over the last 6 months?  That's a serious question BTW - I'm legitimately curious. 

 

When you hit your yearly rainfall total in August, it's easy to forget that you can still be prone to drought.  We are super dry as well.

[Cold Rain]

The weather for the foreseeable future looks fairly boring and unimpressive. All of the indecies we focus on for winter look to be in unfavorable states for colder conditions for a while. On the other hand, it really doesn't matter at this point, and the "boring" period ahead should result in some nice autumn days and cool nights. Enjoy the fall!

[dsaur]

Steve, that next line actually paid off here.  I got .45, which is right where the Gfs, via Meteostar, said I'd be at the 0z call.  I guess the derainalizers were turned off after that first line whiffed when it got to Spalding Co.  It's pretty bad when I get all giddy about less than half an inch, but I've been seeing drought down here since the 80's...way more drought than plenty, and when it starts to dry out again, I get very nervous...and it's drying out again.  T

[Met1985]

The weather for the foreseeable future looks fairly boring and unimpressive. All of the indecies we focus on for winter look to be in unfavorable states for colder conditions for a while. On the other hand, it really doesn't matter at this point, and the "boring" period ahead should result in some nice autumn days and cool nights. Enjoy the fall!

Ya this looks like a stretch of up and down weather. some cool periods and some warm periods. Pretty much as you said very boring nothing really to track. There has been talk of towards the end of November the pattern changing but I will believe it when I see it.

[CandymanColumbusGA]

I'm not seeing a whole lot of change over the next 10 days or so... A few glancing cool shots with some above average temperatures in between, typical fall weather. We don't want all the cold now, otherwise we'd be spoiled going into winter and let down when things aren't as awesome as they were in November.

Veteran's Day sure looks warm with the Southeast Ridge firmly planted over us.

[Met1985]

I'm not seeing a whole lot of change over the next 10 days or so... A few glancing cool shots with some above average temperatures in between, typical fall weather. We don't want all the cold now, otherwise we'd be spoiled going into winter and let down when things aren't as awesome as they were in November.

Veteran's Day sure looks warm with the Southeast Ridge firmly planted over us.

Yep I have seen several warm Novembers and then the pattern turns around in December whenever it matters more.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

I'm not seeing a whole lot of change over the next 10 days or so... A few glancing cool shots with some above average temperatures in between, typical fall weather. We don't want all the cold now, otherwise we'd be spoiled going into winter and let down when things aren't as awesome as they were in November.

Veteran's Day sure looks warm with the Southeast Ridge firmly planted over us.

 

I don't claim to be a met, but I have seen worse set-ups for the Pacific..... As for the Atlantic.... I have all but given up.

[mackerel_sky]

TWC, yeah, I know, just showed their NOV forecast , and it was above/ much above for SE and below/ much below for Rockies and NW. Looks like a lot of SE ridging/ western troughing. They changed their outlook and showed their old NOV forecast, and it was much below for SE. They didn't really explain why they changed.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

TWC, yeah, I know, just showed their NOV forecast , and it was above/ much above for SE and below/ much below for Rockies and NW. Looks like a lot of SE ridging/ western troughing. They changed their outlook and showed their old NOV forecast, and it was much below for SE. They didn't really explain why they changed.

My guess it would be due to the recent predictions coming out about the AO/NAO being very positive.

[pcbjr]

If CPC is right .... let's have a communal prayer for December --

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mackerel_sky]

If CPC is right .... let's have a communal prayer for December --

610temp.new.gif

814temp.new.gif

. Luckily, they are usually not

[griteater]

I don't know the verification scores on the CPC, but I'm a fan of their 6-14 day outlooks.  That's a tough time range to forecast...but in reading their discussions, they typically use a blend of the latest ensemble and operational model runs of the major global models (Euro, GFS, GFS Superensemble, CMC,NAESF), along with analogs to come up with their forecasts - the one caveat being that there is no human intervention with those maps produced on weekends...however, those maps posted above do match the current -PNA type pattern depicted on the GFS Ensemble through mid November.

[Met1985]

I don't know the verification scores on the CPC, but I'm a fan of their 6-14 day outlooks.  That's a tough time range to forecast...but in reading their discussions, they typically use a blend of the latest ensemble and operational model runs of the major global models (Euro, GFS, GFS Superensemble, CMC,NAESF), along with analogs to come up with their forecasts - the one caveat being that there is no human intervention with those maps produced on weekends...however, those maps posted above do match the current -PNA type pattern depicted on the GFS Ensemble through mid November.

What's so funny is that Alaska is way above normal also. Usually that is good for the East but seems like we are not going to be able to buy a break this month.

[FallsLake]

The below image is from the day 16 18z GFS(11/3/2013). I know this is in fantasy land but with the current look of the indices I think it depicts the probable look for the US going into late November(...warm). As I've stated before, I don't think this is horrible as long as we can get a switch of the pattern by early December.  

[mackerel_sky]

My benchmark storm is Jan of 88 ! That was along time ago, but , if I recall correctly, that fall was warm. I think I remember this cause a guy my same age moved across the street from New Hampshire . I couldn't wait to show him our " cold" and our "winter" and nothing happened till the first of January ! Do any people that like to research have any idea of how that fall was? I know there is no correlation, just wondering what it was like leading up to that winter, and that awesome storm?!

[Met1985]

The below image is from the day 16 18z GFS(11/3/2013). I know this is in fantasy land but with the current look of the indices I think it depicts the probable look for the US going into late November(...warm). As I've stated before, I don't think this is horrible as long as we can get a switch of the pattern by early December.  

I  could be interpreting this differently but that pattern does not look all that bad for the East. There is a trough in the East that pushes in on the 15th through the end of the period. Anyway it will change in another hour. Still only November and lots of time to figure out the upcoming December pattern.

[tarheelwx]

My benchmark storm is Jan of 88 ! That was along time ago, but , if I recall correctly, that fall was warm. I think I remember this cause a guy my same age moved across the street from New Hampshire . I couldn't wait to show him our " cold" and our "winter" and nothing happened till the first of January ! Do any people that like to research have any idea of how that fall was? I know there is no correlation, just wondering what it was like leading up to that winter, and that awesome storm?!

Mack,

This site might help.  It defaults to my favorite storm of all time.  We had heavy snow, 20mph winds, and 7 degrees at midday.  Been here 40 years and nothing close has ever happened again.  Anyway, just change the site in the address bar from KGSO to whatever you want and then you can play with the dates. 

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KGSO/1979/2/18/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Greensboro&req_state=NC&req_statename=North+Carolina

 

TW

[NCSNOW]

If I remember correctly winter of 99/00 wasn't a great pattern, but we did sneak in a great 10-14 stretch that hasn't been matched to this day late January of 2000. Had a .25 ice event followed 3 days latter by the Carolina Crusher, then another 5 inch snow 3 days latter.

 

Anyway this pattern of dry fronts coming through needs to change. This week is another wash rinse repeat. Going to be tough getting much qpf  with Thursday front. Atleast we aren't toasting temp wise.

[FallsLake]

I  could be interpreting this differently but that pattern does not look all that bad for the East. There is a trough in the East that pushes in on the 15th through the end of the period. Anyway it will change in another hour. Still only November and lots of time to figure out the upcoming December pattern.

I don't think we will torch, but it does look to be above normal with shots of average or maybe slightly below air masses. The 12z and 6Z GFS this morning continue to show basically what the indices depict; no real cold air entering the country for at least the next couple of weeks.    

[mackerel_sky]

Mack,

This site might help. It defaults to my favorite storm of all time. We had heavy snow, 20mph winds, and 7 degrees at midday. Been here 40 years and nothing close has ever happened again. Anyway, just change the site in the address bar from KGSO to whatever you want and then you can play with the dates.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KGSO/1979/2/18/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Greensboro&req_state=NC&req_statename=North+Carolina

TW

. Thanks! That was fun to look at

[tarheelwx]

Fwiw, almost every winter i recall that was preceded by a cold November ended up being rather mild. So, I actually see our current mild temps as a plus. I think cold Novembers prompted the phrase "what happens in November the winter will remember" because the bulk of the winter stunk and there were only occasional or late winter intrusions of cold air.

Not too crazy about the current dry part of it.

TW

[Met1985]

I don't think we will torch, but it does look to be above normal with shots of average or maybe slightly below air masses. The 12z and 6Z GFS this morning continue to show basically what the indices depict; no real cold air entering the country for at least the next couple of weeks.    

Ya I agree a very progressive pattern setting up. Hey it's only November right. Might as well enjoy this beautiful Fall weather while we have it.

[Stovepipe]

The below image is from the day 16 18z GFS(11/3/2013). I know this is in fantasy land but with the current look of the indices I think it depicts the probable look for the US going into late November(...warm). As I've stated before, I don't think this is horrible as long as we can get a switch of the pattern by early December.  

 

A warm November would suit me just fine.  I planted a fall/winter garden this year so for once I have backup plan for a crappy winter.