November 2013 obs and discussion

[MDstorm]

The cpc D+11 and the euro d8-10 mean look like we'll have a warm stretch for the beginning of Nov once we get through this weekend.  The ensemble forecasts of the AO are really positive in the extended.  Hope that look doesn't persist.

November not so warm so far with a significant neg departure coming up this week.  Looks like another potential cold shot the week after.  Maybe the cold will outperform this winter--here's to hoping.

 

MDstorm

[clueless]

Yesterday morning was great. Just beautiful.

Flurry watch tonight!!!!!!!

However I am not looking forward to a cold and dry pattern this winter. Nope. Not at all.

[Bob Chill]

November not so warm so far with a significant neg departure coming up this week.  Looks like another potential cold shot the week after.  Maybe the cold will outperform this winter--here's to hoping.

 

MDstorm

 

The power of the -epo is really showing it's face in the face of an anomalous +ao and to a lesser extent a -pna/+nao. Last 2 weeks have averaged out to this;

 

 

 

 

It looks to continue into the foreseeable future. It's progressive without blocking but every sw that digs into the middle of the country is able to draw down some pretty cold air behind it and without a se ridge the troughs are able to dig pretty far south as the cold moves east.

 

Another thing helping is the coldest temps are on our side of the globe so the source region is quite cold. This is d8-10 850's from last nights euro. You can see another pretty deep trough tap the cold and move east. We're in the virtual crosshairs again for another shot of cold. Pretty far out there but it's pretty much a similar repeat of what we are seeing over the next couple days:

 

 

 

 

 

 

The big +AO is going to break down pretty quickly in the next week or so. Hard to say if it reloads or not but it is only Nov. I doubted the big warmth being talked about when the big +AO was showing its face and I still doubt big warmth in Dec. If we do have a big +AO in Dec we may not be as lucky with the pac helping setup a lw pattern that doesn't torch us. We'll see what happens. It's always a crap chute. 

[North Balti Zen]

Nice write-up Chill, but then I read Don S stuff in the main forum and confess to confusion between your thoughts and his.

[Bob Chill]

Nice write-up Chill, but then I read Don S stuff in the main forum and confess to confusion between your thoughts and his.

 

Don is a few levels above me so take his thoughts more seriously. However, my points are valid in the sense that expecting every +AO period (or -AO) to behave similarly to the past is full of caveats. Last Dec was a whopping -AO and we all know how that worked out. 

 

I'm focusing mostly on temps right now. Stormtrack is a whole other issue. Unless we can get some blocking, any bigger storm is going to cut because there is nothing to stop it. When we have no stable help our opportunities could potentially be secondary development after fropa's. A 50/50 or pna spike in the lee of a lakes system can produce modest events. 

 

Early November was heavily advertised by models and model watchers as a torch as we closed out Oct. We're going to end the first half below normal and there is no torch in sight. It's a bit ironic. Big +ao and no help from the pna or nao on paper is a torch at first glance but we are experiencing the opposite. And I think it's great because it shows the less common ways to get cool in the east regardless of the major indicies. 

 

There is evidence that a big +AO Nov bleeds into Dec and the same with a big Dec +AO. But it isn't the end all be all. Other smaller factors can help us and a well configured epo/wpo is certainly one of them. 

 

Then there is duration of regimes. There are instances where a +AO dominates mostly door to door but plenty of examples of a breakdown and flip. Just because the AO hits near record territory for a month doesn't mean it can't go the other way (ala 78-79). 

 

The AO will wax and wane regardless of how anomalous it gets. I hope my posts aren't interpreted that I think we will be cold for long durations because I don't. I have the same thoughts that I've had for months. Winter will be more variable month over month in the temp department than we've seen recently. I think periods of potential will re-occur every 2-3 weeks with plenty of ups and downs but averaging near normal overall. 

[mitchnick]

Don is a few levels above me so take his thoughts more seriously. However, my points are valid in the sense that expecting every +AO period (or -AO) to behave similarly to the past is full of caveats. Last Dec was a whopping -AO and we all know how that worked out. 

 

I'm focusing mostly on temps right now. Stormtrack is a whole other issue. Unless we can get some blocking, any bigger storm is going to cut because there is nothing to stop it. When we have no stable help our opportunities could potentially be secondary development after fropa's. A 50/50 or pna spike in the lee of a lakes system can produce modest events. 

 

Early November was heavily advertised by models and model watchers as a torch as we closed out Oct. We're going to end the first half below normal and there is no torch in sight. It's a bit ironic. Big +ao and no help from the pna or nao on paper is a torch at first glance but we are experiencing the opposite. And I think it's great because it shows the less common ways to get cool in the east regardless of the major indicies. 

 

There is evidence that a big +AO Nov bleeds into Dec and the same with a big Dec +AO. But it isn't the end all be all. Other smaller factors can help us and a well configured epo/wpo is certainly one of them. 

 

Then there is duration of regimes. There are instances where a +AO dominates mostly door to door but plenty of examples of a breakdown and flip. Just because the AO hits near record territory for a month doesn't mean it can't go the other way (ala 78-79). 

 

The AO will wax and wane regardless of how anomalous it gets. I hope my posts aren't interpreted that I think we will be cold for long durations because I don't. I have the same thoughts that I've had for months. Winter will be more variable month over month in the temp department than we've seen recently. I think periods of potential will re-occur every 2-3 weeks with plenty of ups and downs but averaging near normal overall. 

and all that variability works out to a flat average on precip and temps on the latest CFS2

I'll take it in light of the past 3 years

[North Balti Zen]

Thanks bob, I am on-board with a more variable winter than the last few, and a few extra shots at snow disappointment in any event...

[ravensrule]

and all that variability works out to a flat average on precip and temps on the latest CFS2

I'll take it in light of the past 3 years

The CFS2 changes more than you change your underwear. Btw Larry Cosgrove is calling for all 3 winter months to be below average temps wise so we should be fine   .

[mitchnick]

The CFS2 changes more than you change your underwear. Btw Larry Cosgrove is calling for all 3 winter months to be below average temps wise so we should be fine   .

not that I shouldn't know already, but what is JB calling for?

on a related note, for those worried about the N PAC, the Gulf of Alaska has warmed pretty well over the past 2-4 weeks

 

the map below shows the warming N PAC better actually

[ravensrule]

not that I shouldn't know already, but what is JB calling for?

on a related note, for those worried about the N PAC, the Gulf of Alaska has warmed pretty well over the past 2-4 weeks

 

 

I do not pay for him so i have not seen his thoughts, i am sure it is snowy for the east coast.

[WinterWxLuvr]

and all that variability works out to a flat average on precip and temps on the latest CFS2

I'll take it in light of the past 3 years

I don't see how anybody can take that thing seriously.  Just look at the difference in the December forecast from Nov 1 and Nov 10.

 

I can flip a coin without consulting a computer.

[nw baltimore wx]

There's not much to talk about weather-wise.  About the only thing of interest is the possible flurries with the current frontal passage, and then down the road into the weekend, whether the gulf finally sends some rain our way (gfs).

[MDstorm]

The power of the -epo is really showing it's face in the face of an anomalous +ao and to a lesser extent a -pna/+nao. Last 2 weeks have averaged out to this;

epo.JPG

It looks to continue into the foreseeable future. It's progressive without blocking but every sw that digs into the middle of the country is able to draw down some pretty cold air behind it and without a se ridge the troughs are able to dig pretty far south as the cold moves east.

Another thing helping is the coldest temps are on our side of the globe so the source region is quite cold. This is d8-10 850's from last nights euro. You can see another pretty deep trough tap the cold and move east. We're in the virtual crosshairs again for another shot of cold. Pretty far out there but it's pretty much a similar repeat of what we are seeing over the next couple days:

euro d8 850s.JPG

euro d9 850s.JPG

euro d10 850s.JPG

The big +AO is going to break down pretty quickly in the next week or so. Hard to say if it reloads or not but it is only Nov. I doubted the big warmth being talked about when the big +AO was showing its face and I still doubt big warmth in Dec. If we do have a big +AO in Dec we may not be as lucky with the pac helping setup a lw pattern that doesn't torch us. We'll see what happens. It's always a crap chute.

Well said, Bob. Like I noted in my post, the November torch will not materialize, despite the horrid AO state. A little warming in the central Pacific and the Gulf of Alaska and this may not be such a crappy winter.

MDstorm

[yoda]

I better see some wet snowflakes tomorrow or else I will cause drama in here...

[MDstorm]

not that I shouldn't know already, but what is JB calling for?

on a related note, for those worried about the N PAC, the Gulf of Alaska has warmed pretty well over the past 2-4 weeks

the map below shows the warming N PAC better actually

FYI---- JB is calling for near average Dec, then progressively colder Jan and Feb. Snow is average with above just to the west and northwest of mid Atlantic.

MDstorm

[Bob Chill]

Both the euro and gfs are showing another pretty deep trough in d8-10 with -10 850's overhead. Very similar looks. IF that verifies it's going to be near impossible to go aoa temps in Nov. Very impressive feat in the face of a +ao/nao regime. 

 

We'll start to get some clues in 10 days on how early Dec looks. The +ao looks is looking possible to even likely in breaking down to near neutral in the next 2 weeks. Fingers crossed that it doesn't reload. 

[PhineasC]

I have a feeling this winter will be a little colder and snowier than the last few. Nothing outrageous, but it will at least feel more like winter. I'm sure there will be a week of 70s in January as usual and we'll have to listen to the normal suspects here telling us how wonderful it is to only have to wear gloves and a parka during soccer practice rather than a full Arctic survival suit.

[snowfan]

I'd be happy if mby received normal snowfall......15-20". I'm not greedy.

[smokeybandit]

So...high of 40 today, temperatures still haven't dropped below 50

[aldie 22]

It's like 52 degrees

[mappy]

42, winds picked up considerably in the last hour, flurries

[H2O]

Apparently blowing leaves make people drive slower.  It's windy out

[aldie 22]

It's like 52 degrees

It's like 41 degrees

[WVclimo]

Rain / snow mix. 37 degrees.

[H2O]

It's like 41 degrees

 

cold air been give

[H2O]

ground white in Garrett Co per traffic cams

[Eskimo Joe]

Driving down 27 in Mount Airy and saw my first SHA snowwplow on I-70....only in Maryland.

[snowfan]

Actually heard the following on the radio this morning........there's no snow, so no worries about the weather impacting your commute.

 

Was anyone really broadcasting legit snow as a possibility?

 

Anyway, cold air was slow to move in. Felt kinda warm when I left this morning at 6:15.

[Sparky]

some snow in the air temp nosediving to 35

[H2O]

10 degree drop since coming into work