Ian Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Euro does throw a little precip out with the s/w actually. Similar to earlier GFS runs and a couple of the 12z GEFS members. WxBell Euro weenie snow maps even show some over our area GAME ON. Mtns do decent. Which I think is pretty much the only realistic thought around here for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Mtns do decent. Which I think is pretty much the only realistic thought around here for now. With more of a clipper idea, would certainly think the Mountains could do well with upslope enhancement and the obviously colder temps. I find it a bit interesting that the advertised torch keeps getting delayed and delayed. Looked like it would hit right at the beginning of the month as of mid-late October. Now we're talking after the 15th. First half of the month might very well end up a few degrees below normal. Even with a ++AO/-PNA/+NAO. I'm not sure if that means the torch will eventually get here (certainly you'd think it would given the state of the indices) or if the torch won't and we'll somehow skate through this should-be-warm-but-its-not period and get a pattern to develop that's more classically wintry for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 18z GFS starts out a little more Euro-ish with a weaker vort than 12z, but catches up and ends up with a pretty solid solution for us. Vortmax looks to go south of us...near RIC, which is pretty ideal for us. Low jumps to the coast. Precip falls in darkness. Jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 18z GFS starts out a little more Euro-ish with a weaker vort than 12z, but catches up and ends up with a pretty solid solution for us. Vortmax looks to go south of us...near RIC, which is pretty ideal for us. Low jumps to the coast. Precip falls in darkness. Jackpot. 1-3" or whatever this time a year would be bonus. I'd take the euro/gfs compromise in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 1-3" or whatever this time a year would be bonus. I'd take the euro/gfs compromise in a heartbeat. If we get 1-3" in the cities, Wes will eat his fishing boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Somebody start a storm thread. That usually does away with dreams or in this case, most likely fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 If we get 1-3" in the cities, Wes will eat his fishing boat. Good. lol. Lucky for me I am no where near the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 how often does this 500 map give us a snowstorm in january let alone nov? I actually like November better for cutoffs than January. There's a weaker further north jet in November that is more likely to drop something behind over us. Of course with no blocking the cutoff will have to occur in the right place at the right time for this to happen. However the models do agree there will be a cold enough surface high in the right spot should h5 cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Great sunset tonight.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 What more rare...late march Palm Monday snow or mid November snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Beautiful sunset tonight. Not editing except for some cropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Great sunset tonight.... Untitled_Panorama1.jpg Nice pic!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 The vort pass is much better this run. Sorry mapgirl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 It's ok. When you're 35 and rain in DC, I'll be 30 and snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The vort pass is much better this run. Sorry mapgirl. gfs_6hr_snow_acc_washdc_65.png That would be the screw job for all eternity for somebody there on the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 7, 2013 Author Share Posted November 7, 2013 The vort pass is much better this run. Sorry mapgirl. gfs_6hr_snow_acc_washdc_65.png The vort has a good track but it's so early it is likely to change. I like Jason's piece on CWG. If the tomorrows model runs still show potential I'll be writing something tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Tonights sunset at Dulles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Tonights sunset at Dulles. FSCN1396.JPG FSCN1398.JPG FSCN1400.JPG Works of art there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 This thread is funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Some people caught fallstreak holes in the clouds tonight.. must have been around Dulles http://www.flickr.com/photos/wolfkann/10716206306/ One of mine: http://www.flickr.com/photos/ianlivingston/10718692113/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 That's magnificent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Another day and the torch is still 8-10 days away at least. -EPO won't be denied it seems, even though the AO and PNA suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Another day and the torch is still 8-10 days away at least. -EPO won't be denied it seems, even though the AO and PNA suck. PNA expected to implode upward now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The 0z Euro gets very amplified after the weekend with our possible snow event and then another big cutoff low in the central Plains that likely turns into a cutter (and big Plains snowstorm) on the Day 11-13 panels that I can't see. That's why the PNA goes high at the end. I still think we're in a general -PNA period for the foreseeable future. Given the dogged persistence of the Aleutian ridging/-EPO, the only way the -PNA goes away is for that ridging to retrograde just enough to get the mean trough OFF of the west coast over the Pacific, which might be able to put a ridge into the Rockies. In fact, this is what appears to be happening transiently for our possible snow event. But in general, we're dealing with a -PNA for at least the next 2 weeks I think. What's pretty amazing to me is that the torch, that by all rights should be coming, just isn't coming. With a -PNA and a ridiculously +AO (reaching +3-4SD), we're still looking at below normal temps next week, snow or no snow. In fact, I suspect Wes will be mentioning this in his afternoon column on the snow chances. DC's big snow events are strongly correlated with a -AO and we're looking at a +AO of probably at least 3 standard deviations at the time of this storm. Vet's Day '87 had a -AO. So, this storm will have to seriously buck some history and trends (nevermind the fact it's mid-November). But, of course, even if everyone around DC gets 6", DCA will probably only report <1", so Wes's stats will still be intact and most of us will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Good writeup, WxUSAF. I was actually able to understand it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I was out fishing on the bay all day yesterday. We were heading to the barn during the sunset. It was mind boggling. Shots from my phone. No enhancements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Wet, who stuck flurries/ snow showers into my forecast for overnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Nice pics Bob. Now just waiting for this frontal passage today and whatever showers come from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Nice pics Bob. Now just waiting for this frontal passage today and whatever showers come from it. Thanks. 850's are warm. Rain should be warmer than cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I was out fishing on the bay all day yesterday. We were heading to the barn during the sunset. It was mind boggling. Shots from my phone. No enhancements. You definitely need some enhancements, regardless those are some sweet pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.