Ian Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 take that Wes lol ha, i just said the same on FB (more or less). he shouldn't worry, things will probably shift a little still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Wow that is just a perfectly placed cutoff on the gfs day 8 cold air stays trapped over us. Looks as good as 1987. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 ha, i just said the same on FB (more or less). he shouldn't worry, things will probably shift a little still. Nah, the GFS from a week out is rock solid. That ridge over the Aleutians that Bluewave made a thread about on the main page is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 All caveats apply, but the AO heads back toward (at least) neutral after Day 10 on the GFS with ridging toward the pole from 3 directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Wow that is just a perfectly placed cutoff on the gfs day 8 cold air stays trapped over us. Looks as good as 1987. how often does this 500 map give us a snowstorm in january let alone nov? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 All caveats apply, but the AO heads back toward (at least) neutral after Day 10 on the GFS with ridging toward the pole from 3 directions. Down down down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 how often does this 500 map give us a snowstorm in january let alone nov? gfs_namer_186_500_vort_ht.gif I know! I know! It rhymes with the word hero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Wow the GFS is cold really cold through the entire run after today pretty much. Death to Torchvember! Anyway...I think the consensus is getting better for a solidly chilly/cold shot next week. Not sure we'll verify highs in the 30s any day, but I think a couple days with highs in the 40s at least is a realistic scenario right now. Maybe DCA can get its freeze? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Down down down Indeed. I wouldn't put much stock in it really yet, given that the huge turnaround in the AO starts just after the GFS's resolution goes to garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 I know! I know! It rhymes with the word hero Vets Day was classic. This is GFS on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 how often does this 500 map give us a snowstorm in january let alone nov? gfs_namer_186_500_vort_ht.gif That will end up over Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Vets Day was classic. This is GFS on crack. 111200.png Vets day was insane. i remember it vividly(yes, I'm old). Anomalous cold and vort that went nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Vets day was insane. i remember it vividly(yes, I'm old). Anomalous cold and vort that went nuts We didn't get the same type of snow that you guys got down in swva, but I vividly remember the strong cold front, the wind, the cold, and the rapid change to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 how often does this 500 map give us a snowstorm in january let alone nov? gfs_namer_186_500_vort_ht.gif 12/9/05 had a 500 low slip to our west. 2/3/10 wasn't closed off, but it is a better fit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 12/9/05 had a 500 low slip to our west. 2/3/10 wasn't closed off, but it is a better fit. With the high pressure dropping in as shown it's possible I suppose but fairly obviously it's not going to happen. A cold rain would be a good way to start really getting into winter though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Believe it or not, GEFS say the Op is not a complete outlier. One member is even more wrapped up than the Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Believe it or not, GEFS say the Op is not a complete outlier. One member is even more wrapped up than the Op. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Link? P008 FTW. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSPRS_12z/ensloop.html Actually nearly ALL the GEFS members put a big ol' closed low over the eastern CONUS sometime next week. Some differences on which s/w goes boom and where it booms, but I think next week might finally offer some exciting weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 It does seem there's growing signal for a storm at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 P008 FTW. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSPRS_12z/ensloop.html Actually nearly ALL the GEFS members put a big ol' closed low over the eastern CONUS sometime next week. Some differences on which s/w goes boom and where it booms, but I think next week might finally offer some exciting weather. Thanks...so long as it isn't a torch I'll take it. Nothing worse that mid 60s in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 It does seem there's growing signal for a storm at least. Early bomb=severe, late bomb=shovel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Early bomb=severe, late bomb=shovel? Or perhaps the miller b DC screwjob? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Thanks...so long as it isn't a torch I'll take it. Nothing worse that mid 60s in November. Pretty nice out there right now. 68.5 is my high so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Or perhaps the miller b DC screwjob? Looks like the upper level low sits in WV for quite a few frames. I know we like it south of us but in a colder regime, could that be sufficient? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 gfs_6hr_snow_acc_washdc_65.png Parkton Jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Pretty nice out there right now. 68.5 is my high so far.It's about perfect out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 GEFS mean weakens the +AO, but probably keeps it positive in the long range. But also sets up a noticeable west-based -NAO. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Dr No is in the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Euro briefly closes off a s/w over the MS Valley next week, but just damps it out right away. Never much if any surface reflection. Decent cold shot Tues-Wed still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Euro does throw a little precip out with the s/w actually. Similar to earlier GFS runs and a couple of the 12z GEFS members. WxBell Euro weenie snow maps even show some over our area GAME ON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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