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November 2013 obs and discussion


usedtobe

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Yeah even though the euro is not as extreme with the cold dump into the east next week, it has it far enough south for the mid-atl...im just skeptical the gfs is correct in dropping 1040mb and the belows all the way to Florida.

Seems like this might be a bias of the GFS:

 

From NCEP model Bias Page (http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/biastext.shtml#GFS)

 

 

 

ightly ambitious with magnitude of high amplitude patterns North America Cool season so far NCEP WPC Since fall 2002 Prediction of southward progression of cold air over done

Model a bit too extreme in temp patterns beyond 84 hours

Precip Type Algorithm off of GFS  too eager to depict snow 

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