eurojosh Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I am wondering if we should have another contest... predicting the days year when DCA/BWI/IAD get their first recorded inch of snowfall FYP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Thought today would be warmer...clouds keeping the chill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 FYP. Well that would be for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Euro a driving rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Euro a driving rainstorm Yea, solid stripe of 2"+ from winwxluvr's yard to the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Euro a driving rainstorm Probably more correct than not. However, also likely over-done/phased as the Op Euro seems to like to do at this range. Ensembles will be of interest here. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Euro a driving rainstorm is this for Wed/Thurs next week? just checking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Probably more correct than not. However, also likely over-done/phased as the Op Euro seems to like to do at this range. Ensembles will be of interest here. MDstorm This. But, remember, the GFS is wrong until the Euro shows what the GFS shows, and then the GFS is right because the Euro shows it. Or so I understand from DT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 This. But, remember, the GFS is wrong until the Euro shows what the GFS shows, and then the GFS is right because the Euro shows it. Or so I understand from DT. LOL. I find it uplifting that the Euro is wet. I'll worry about temps later, either next week, next month, or the next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 18z GFS is a complete whiff...not even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 18z GFS is a complete whiff...not even close It IS cold though. 850's below zero for most of the day Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 18z GFS is a complete whiff...not even close Got to wonder if the GFS sucks this bad or the euro was just too amped. UKMET and CMC where more amped up so idk. 0Z should hopefully clear things up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The GFS is a whiff, but its actually a better setup if you wanted snow, it rushes the GL low across so the HP gets time to setup, now we just need the ULL to starty going negative faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The GFS is a whiff, but its actually a better setup if you wanted snow, it rushes the GL low across so the HP gets time to setup, now we just need the ULL to starty going negative faster. 18z GFS just totally flattens the northern stream. H5 low is south of Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I feel like we were just here a few weeks ago. Or maybe a week ago. My bet is cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 18z GFS is a complete whiff...not even close It doesn't agree with its ensemble members very well at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Got to wonder if the GFS sucks this bad or the euro was just too amped. UKMET and CMC where more amped up so idk. 0Z should hopefully clear things up a bit. GFS sucks this bad? It mopped the floor with the Euro on the last phantom snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 GFS sucks this bad? It mopped the floor with the Euro on the last phantom snow storm. I am talking about this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I am talking about this system. So what are you basing your "does the GFS suck this bad" question on? Just because it doesn't show a snow storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 So what are you basing your "does the GFS suck this bad" question on? Just because it doesn't show a snow storm? Because it is the only model way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I feel like we were just here a few weeks ago. Or maybe a week ago. My bet is cold. This is what we do from November to April, stalk every low pressure that comes near the east coast 8 days out only to end with disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Because it is the only model way south. What if it's the first to sniff out the real solution. If memory serves it was the one that first dropped the idea of the last storm. Still, it doesn't match up well to its latest ensembles. I wouldn't be surprised to see the operational spit out a quite different solution soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I'd wager mid-Nov '87 btw you were right. 33 on 11/21/87 is the coldest nov max at dca going back to 1981. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 What if it's the first to sniff out the real solution. If memory serves it was the one that first dropped the idea of the last storm. Still, it doesn't match up well to its latest ensembles. I wouldn't be surprised to see the operational spit out a quite different solution soon. That is why I said, does it suck, not it does. CMC never showed a storm with that last event either or UKMET. It is not like the Euro is alone this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 So what are you basing your "does the GFS suck this bad" question on? Just because it doesn't show a snow storm? SANDY!!!!!11!!!!!11!!!!!1!!1!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 GFS idea I think will ultimately win. Weaker low,not much phasing if any and the system will scoot OTS. It had the right idea first last storm. It really don't matter anyhow I for one do not care for storms that are 34 degrees and rain. Still 5 days out though, so anything is still possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 This pattern is just to progressive nothing to slow down the traffic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 22, 2013 Author Share Posted November 22, 2013 What if it's the first to sniff out the real solution. If memory serves it was the one that first dropped the idea of the last storm. Still, it doesn't match up well to its latest ensembles. I wouldn't be surprised to see the operational spit out a quite different solution soon. That's always the question because in terms of verification, though the Euro verifies best, the differences aren't as great as some like to believe. The fact that the 12Z and 18Z GEFS ensemble members have trended drier and are now about equally divided between the GFS and Euro solutions is cause for not completely buying one solution. Unfortunately, I don't get to see the euro ensemble members, only the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I pretty much hope the precip misses us. It won't be snow anywhere near the cities either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I pretty much hope the precip misses us. It won't be snow anywhere near the cities either way. We do need rain too you know. Been very dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.