yoda Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Wed night into Thanksgiving morning --SN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Closed lows entering the CA coast and tracking across the country like that is pretty Nino-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Closed lows entering the CA coast and tracking across the country like that is pretty Nino-ish. The first one can be tossed up as a fluke. Not so sure that you can call 2 in a row a fluke. Does the pattern have legs? Probably not. But if it re-occurs another time or 2 during prime climo then all bets are off on well below climo. The second one bears watching. It's an early Dec snow odds increaser for sure. We are moving into a better climo period as well. No blocking is the red herring but still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Storm is still close enough to keep things interesting for another day or two It's pretty funny that you actually think it's going to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Haterz gonna hate. I'll just repeat...GFS verbatim is record low max on Sunday for IAD and BWI. Don't think there's anyway DCA meets or breaks the record of 31F, but yeah, 35F is pretty solid for DCA given its DCA. I looked back to 1981 last night. Coldest max in Nov 33 at DCA back in the 80s somewhere. Left sheet at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Left sheet at home. Most people like leaving their sheet at home. Public restrooms are nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The cold air this month is legit. We're going to finish the month below normal almost for sure (maybe even a -3?) with an AO that reached +4SDs and also a +NAO. Having your source region really cold is really really helpful. Hopefully that benefits us going forward. There's lots of cold air around, so I think we're going to get our chances in the coming weeks. Might not connect for a hit, but we're going to get plate appearances with ducks on the pond. P.S. I love baseball analogies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Most people like leaving their sheet at home. Public restrooms are nasty.Might have to accidentally delete reply again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Closed lows entering the CA coast and tracking across the country like that is pretty Nino-ish. Call me old but I vividly remember Gordon Barnes(old ch 9 weatherman) showing maps where some of our better storms came out of the 4 corners area. Of course it is highly dependent on the pattern but I do like seeing lows out that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The cold air this month is legit. We're going to finish the month below normal almost for sure (maybe even a -3?) with an AO that reached +4SDs and also a +NAO. Having your source region really cold is really really helpful. Hopefully that benefits us going forward. There's lots of cold air around, so I think we're going to get our chances in the coming weeks. Might not connect for a hit, but we're going to get plate appearances with ducks on the pond. P.S. I love baseball analogies Yea, and Bill Bergen has been at bat for the MA snow crew for the last 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Weenie range GFS continues to look intriguing... looks like a nice ridge off the West Coast (that's a +PNA, correct?) and decent reloads of cold air pouring into the US from NW Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I looked back to 1981 last night. Coldest max in Nov 33 at DCA back in the 80s somewhere. Left sheet at home. I'd wager mid-Nov '87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Weenie range GFS continues to look intriguing... looks like a nice ridge off the West Coast (that's a +PNA, correct?) and decent reloads of cold air pouring into the US from NW Canada Canada would be an icebox, coast to coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I'd wager mid-Nov '87 11/30/76, 11/30/58 both had maxes of 29 for lowest November max at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Call me old but I vividly remember Gordon Barnes(old ch 9 weatherman) showing maps where some of our better storms came out of the 4 corners area. Of course it is highly dependent on the pattern but I do like seeing lows out that way All good things come from 4 corners 500 lows. But.. the northern stream is still plenty active and we have no real clue how the wave will eject still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 All good things come from 4 corners 500 lows. But.. the northern stream is still plenty active and we have no real clue how the wave will eject still. Yea, it's our bread and butter for bigger storms. Nino circ or real split flow. It's the only way to "not fluke it" The pattern is good. Probably the best leading into Dec since 09. It's 02'ish in some ways as well. It should be fun watching a bunch of folks going verbatim d10+ for a while. I just care about the overall look hanging in there. Second day in a row with a modestly improved atl on the gfs in the lr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Yea, it's our bread and butter for bigger storms. Nino circ or real split flow. It's the only way to "not fluke it" The pattern is good. Probably the best leading into Dec since 09. It's 02'ish in some ways as well. It should be fun watching a bunch of folks going verbatim d10+ for a while. I just care about the overall look hanging in there. Second day in a row with a modestly improved atl on the gfs in the lr. someone should get snow soon. especially if it's going to be horrifically cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Yea, it's our bread and butter for bigger storms. Nino circ or real split flow. It's the only way to "not fluke it" The pattern is good. Probably the best leading into Dec since 09. It's 02'ish in some ways as well. It should be fun watching a bunch of folks going verbatim d10+ for a while. I just care about the overall look hanging in there. Second day in a row with a modestly improved atl on the gfs in the lr. The ATL is still way up in the air...I would lean toward cold, but I think even that is up in the air...I think a very tricky forecast for 1st week of december...30s or 50s wouldn't surprise me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 CMC close to the boom. Model mayhem, next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 CMC close to the boom. Model mayhem, next few days. I'd like to see a single model run of any model showing accumulating snow here and I might start to get more excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 someone should get snow soon. especially if it's going to be horrifically cold. with wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I'd like to see a single model run of any model showing accumulating snow here and I might start to get more excited -3 850's at DC with .1" qpf that frame it would be snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I could really go for some 2" fluffy clipper snow...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 -3 850's at DC with .1" qpf that frame it would be snowing. the QPF falls after 850s drop? I think we need a little more common sense here...I realize you don't live in our area and that is fine...we are ALL imby to some extent, but not a single model run has shown accumulating snow for DC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 the QPF falls after 850s drop? No frame before is below as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Looks like we should get decent snow this weekend! http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Davis&state=WV&site=PBZ&lat=39.131&lon=-79.4665#.Uo5Fm5tpDUY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Well that is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The ATL is still way up in the air...I would lean toward cold, but I think even that is up in the air...I think a very tricky forecast for 1st week of december...30s or 50s wouldn't surprise me What has to be encouraging is the look of it constantly bringing in fresh batches of cold air every couple days. We have problems with stale air getting pushed out just in time for a cutter that doesn't even give us more than a couple hours of slop before going RA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The ATL is still way up in the air...I would lean toward cold, but I think even that is up in the air...I think a very tricky forecast for 1st week of december...30s or 50s wouldn't surprise me It really is. And the lack of cooperation so far means to expect a continuance. GFS and GEFS are getting kinda agressive in the lr. I take some solace in the fact that Tuesday's disappointing runs were fleeting. It usually works the other way around. Euro seems to agree d10-15 but I don't have h5 maps. Only temps so I have to fill in the blanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I am wondering if we should have another contest... predicting the days when DCA/BWI/IAD get their first recorded inch of snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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