mitchnick Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Ji will be going to RIC next week for a chase after he looks at the euro snow maps. It's comical in the DC-Balt corridor. Snowhole. we've just seen this movie, and not too long ago it'll be ots like the GFS has it if recent history repeats there's this little voice in the back of my head (where I still have "some" hair left) whispering 80/81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Bob, be careful. I was looking at the maps on WeatherBell and it accumulates 3" of snow over top of me while 850s seem to be above 0C. I'm so careful that I give snowmaps zero credit for anything. It was a tongue in cheek post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 One of these days people are going to figure out that you need precip for snow. You need that FIRST. All of the worry about cold.....it will be very comforting if it's about 28 degrees next wed and partly cloudy. At least its cold can be the chant. There's plenty of precip on the euro. 1" runs right up I95. .5" out your way and 1.5 - 2" near the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 There's plenty of precip on the euro. 1" runs right up I95. .5" out your way and 1.5 - 2" near the bay. Cool by me. The solution I don't want is the GFS. It can rain all it wants. I don't want to watch helplessly as the precip shield peters out about Luray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 How often do we get a snowstorm in November without a block? or with a block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 18z gfs looking pretty good thru 171hrs fwliw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 18z gfs is closer to maintaining a closed H7 low than the last few runs. I remain pessimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 18z gfs looking pretty good thru 171hrs fwliw Strong h5 vort too... but in Savannah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 18z gfs is closer to maintaining a closed H7 low than the last few runs. I remain pessimistic. I think it's still a miss to the s/e but not as bad as 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 I think it's still a miss to the s/e but not as bad as 12z It skims us, the precip never gets back too far into the cold air. Improvement from 12z, yes, but then again it's a 6hr trend 180 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 If you believe the 18z run, we're below freezing for 24+ hours from the end of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Umm...18z gfs looks pretty close to me for west of here...fun to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 This run is close to one of the only ways I think we get snow out of this. 850's are way too borderline to get a close pass with a wrapped up low. HP to the N isn't very strong but at least the position keeps the flow from going NE. I just want to see flakes falling for a little while. That reality is baby stepping closer every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 December 5th looks like 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 December 5th looks like 1-2" lol- i saw that....and then realized that there is a potential for a phase between the ns/ss..... that 1-2 comes from a weak ns vort and the bigger vort through the sw just kinda fizzles. Early Dec definitely has some signs of being active. Should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 This pattern we're in shows potential for a surprising early winter. 18Z run looks like a snow/rain mix out here which is always great in my book as far as tracking a storm. Accumulating snow in late November is always problematical but a coastal whether rain or snow is fun. Plus LR seems to indicate more cold shots. For this time of year, it doesn't get much better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Weather bell has each euro ens members snow output. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 You can tell winter is approaching since many of the members who have been hibernating since March have reappeared. I can't wait for the gleeful posts from the CHO crew. New snow capital of the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Frosty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 You can tell winter is approaching since many of the members who have been hibernating since March have reappeared. I can't wait for the gleeful posts from the CHO crew. New snow capital of the MA. I can't deal with more heartbreak watching it snow to the south this year. I've got to chase. Damn I wish I didn't trade my Jeep for my Mustang... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Let's be honest here, people that live in the south just don't deserve the snow. They have beaches and hot women, do they really need to take our snow? We need to work out some sort of agreement that they will no longer take our snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Let's be honest here, people that live in the south just don't deserve the snow. They have beaches and hot women, do they really need to take our snow? We need to work out some sort of agreement that they will no longer take our snow. The south is the new snow capital! I wonder how many fluke snow events we can pull off here this year.. I ended up with several inches from winter storm Nemo last year when we were only expecting little to none from it. Hoping you guys up in the NoVa area cash in at some point this winter though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Yeah. Well our track record of late is kinda pathetic. So if y'all in the south cash in, we are ok. Well....not really. But we have to buck up and brace ourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The south is the new snow capital! I wonder how many fluke snow events we can pull off here this year.. I ended up with several inches from winter storm Nemo last year when we were only expecting little to none from it. Hoping you guys up in the NoVa area cash in at some point this winter though. -5 for using the term "winter storm nemo" in a post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 -5 for using the term "winter storm nemo" in a post. Yeah, I deserve it. I was too lazy to go back and look up the date of when it happened. Using Nemo was easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 -5 for using the term "winter storm nemo" in a post. +1 Calling storms by their TWC names should be ban worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Hmmmm... this run of the GFS should be interesting through 153... wish the H in Canada would move a bit faster E or SE Closed h5 low at 153 in S MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 1000mb off of Hatteras around 171... looks like not much if any northern stream interaction this run.. nice looking run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 1000mb off of Hatteras around 171... looks like not much if any northern stream interaction this run.. nice looking run Is that CAD I see the GFS trying to show? Interesting that the GFS would have that on Day 8 Skims us and goes out to sea... believe Matt had posted about that... looks like some flurries or snowshowers Thanksgiving morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Is that CAD I see the GFS trying to show? Interesting that the GFS would have that on Day 8 I did notice that CAD signal, pretty strong signal too... interesting. And I am not sure I buy this stream separation.. There is a definite weakness in the jet streams during this time of year evident by all the cut-off SW's showing up at H5. Type of pattern makes forecasting storms like this tough but still one of the better GFS runs ive seen in the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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