yoda Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Fo shizzle. We need to go back to the Euro's idea from yesterday if we have hope for this to be a primarily snow event for us. We need the northern stream to outrace the southern stream, bring in the cold air, and then have the low sort of scoot off the coast near ORF. But, since I'm a snow w*ore, I'm happy to root for .75" of rain followed by .1" liquid-equiv snow that melts on contact. #faithintheflakes But any snow in November is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Very impressive cold behind the storm next week on the Euro. I only took a quick glance but if that kind of cold verified we would have one of the coldest Thanksgivings in some time. I guess the how the storm plays out next week will determine how cold we get. Plenty time for major changes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 To be clear, I for one am not expecting snow I just want to see some signs that snow and cold have a shot this year. For some reason my brain says a cold rainy nor'easter turkey week is a good sign. Maybe I'm just stupid...who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Partly cloudy and 50 on Thanksgiving...book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 We can extrapolate the 384hr 6z GFS in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 To be clear, I for one am not expecting snow I just want to see some signs that snow and cold have a shot this year. For some reason my brain says a cold rainy nor'easter turkey week is a good sign. Maybe I'm just stupid...who knows you do live around the corner from JI....just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 To be clear, I for one am not expecting snow I just want to see some signs that snow and cold have a shot this year. For some reason my brain says a cold rainy nor'easter turkey week is a good sign. Maybe I'm just stupid...who knows Probably never expect it, but I think we've got a decent chance for it next week. Not a good chance, not a great chance, but it isn't a fantasy either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 GFS scooted the monkey wrench great lakes low out of the way a good bit quicker....we'll see how the run goes but 850's are going to be colder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 In celebration GIS Day: http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/earth/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 GFS scooted the monkey wrench great lakes low out of the way a good bit quicker....we'll see how the run goes but 850's are going to be colder... I noticed that too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 GFS scooted the monkey wrench great lakes low out of the way a good bit quicker....we'll see how the run goes but 850's are going to be colder... well, I guess the progressive nature of this season is showing its ugly hand again...at least on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 OTS now. This is actually a good thing. Somewhere in between 6 & 12z lies accum snow somewhere in our cwa. We don't want a tight coastal runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 well, I guess the progressive nature of this season is showing its ugly hand again...at least on this run I'm just going through the motions with this one. It's an interesting solution nonetheless. Surface freezing line runs I95. 850's are far enough south. The pesky gl low (in this solution) actually enhances CAA leading in. Much is up in the air. I just want to see flakes fall. It would put a smile on my face for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 OTS now. This is actually a good thing. Somewhere in between 6 & 12z lies accum snow somewhere in our cwa. We don't want a tight coastal runner. its either going out to sea or its coming up as a rain maker. Ive seen this lousy movies 1000 times...bigger stronger storm--warmer...sheared POS..out to sea but the 850s are cold enough for a flurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 i already hate this storm:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 its either going out to sea or its coming up as a rain maker. Ive seen this lousy movies 1000 times...bigger stronger storm--warmer...sheared POS..out to sea but the 850s are cold enough for a flurry. Jay pretty much nails what I just said in a Facebook chat with the CVA folks. If it amps, it rains. If it doesn't OTS it goes and it's just cold and sunny. Only chance I really see for this to be anything of note for us is to hold back a bit longer than we've been seeing the last 24-36 hours in models and let that northern stream vort that screams across southern Canada scoot by. Then, and only then, can I see a snowflake in this region. Just my opinion. Could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 its either going out to sea or its coming up as a rain maker. Ive seen this lousy movies 1000 times...bigger stronger storm--warmer...sheared POS..out to sea but the 850s are cold enough for a flurry. yep, been here done this... I don't think it takes an inland track over the delmarva at the very least. A bit more offshore than 6z = colder rain for us. Maybe if it exits closer to va beach on the same trajectory? #graspingatstraws Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 its either going out to sea or its coming up as a rain maker. Ive seen this lousy movies 1000 times...bigger stronger storm--warmer...sheared POS..out to sea but the 850s are cold enough for a flurry. Pretty much. I was scared that I might miss a snowstorm while I'm iN SC Thanksgiving. GFS got awfully close on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 No Idea why WeatherBell is taking off as a model site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 No Idea why WeatherBell is taking off as a model site I've been a WeatherBell Premium member for about 2 weeks and have been very pleased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Pretty drastic changes going on @ the pole with the gfs in lalaland. PV gets totally dislodged deep into southern and then se canada. AO really tanks. It's another run with favorable signs down the road. Cold start to Dec continues to be on the table with plenty of caution of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 I've been a WeatherBell Premium member for about 2 weeks and have been very pleased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 OTS now. This is actually a good thing. Somewhere in between 6 & 12z lies accum snow somewhere in our cwa. We don't want a tight coastal runner. I do. Every time. I'll take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 I do. Every time. I'll take my chances. That's why there are times it feels like you need your own threads or sub-forum out your way. It's why you ended up with 20 inches or so last winter while in Baltimore, for instance, I was nickel and diming to 4.5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 its either going out to sea crush North Carolina.or its coming up as a rain maker. Ive seen this lousy movies 1000 times...bigger stronger storm--warmer...sheared POS..out to sea but the 850s are cold enough for a flurry. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Ji will be going to RIC next week for a chase after he looks at the euro snow maps. It's comical in the DC-Balt corridor. Snowhole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 How often do we get a snowstorm in November without a block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 How often do we get a snowstorm in November without a block? Have we ever gotten even 1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Ji will be going to RIC next week for a chase after he looks at the euro snow maps. It's comical in the DC-Balt corridor. Snowhole. One of these days people are going to figure out that you need precip for snow. You need that FIRST. All of the worry about cold.....it will be very comforting if it's about 28 degrees next wed and partly cloudy. At least its cold can be the chant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Ji will be going to RIC next week for a chase after he looks at the euro snow maps. It's comical in the DC-Balt corridor. Snowhole. Bob, be careful. I was looking at the maps on WeatherBell and it accumulates 3" of snow over top of me while 850s seem to be above 0C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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