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November 2013 obs and discussion


usedtobe

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Fo shizzle. 

We need to go back to the Euro's idea from yesterday if we have hope for this to be a primarily snow event for us.  We need the northern stream to outrace the southern stream, bring in the cold air, and then have the low sort of scoot off the coast near ORF.  But, since I'm a snow w*ore, I'm happy to root for .75" of rain followed by .1" liquid-equiv snow that melts on contact. 

 

#faithintheflakes

 

But any snow in November is nice. 

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To be clear, I for one am not expecting snow I just want to see some signs that snow and cold have a shot this year. For some reason my brain says a cold rainy nor'easter turkey week is a good sign. Maybe I'm just stupid...who knows

Probably never expect it, but I think we've got a decent chance for it next week.  Not a good chance, not a great chance, but it isn't a fantasy either.

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well, I guess the progressive nature of this season is showing its ugly hand again...at least on this run

 

I'm just going through the motions with this one. It's an interesting solution nonetheless. Surface freezing line runs I95. 850's are far enough south. The pesky gl low (in this solution) actually enhances CAA leading in. Much is up in the air. I just want to see flakes fall. It would put a smile on my face for sure. 

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OTS now. This is actually a good thing. Somewhere in between 6 & 12z lies accum snow somewhere in our cwa. We don't want a tight coastal runner. 

its either going out to sea or its coming up as a rain maker. Ive seen this lousy movies 1000 times...bigger stronger storm--warmer...sheared POS..out to sea but the 850s are cold enough for a flurry. 

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its either going out to sea or its coming up as a rain maker. Ive seen this lousy movies 1000 times...bigger stronger storm--warmer...sheared POS..out to sea but the 850s are cold enough for a flurry. 

 

Jay pretty much nails what I just said in a Facebook chat with the CVA folks. If it amps, it rains. If it doesn't OTS it goes and it's just cold and sunny. 

 

Only chance I really see for this to be anything of note for us is to hold back a bit longer than we've been seeing the last 24-36 hours in models and let that northern stream vort that screams across southern Canada scoot by. Then, and only then, can I see a snowflake in this region.

 

Just my opinion. Could be wrong.

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its either going out to sea or its coming up as a rain maker. Ive seen this lousy movies 1000 times...bigger stronger storm--warmer...sheared POS..out to sea but the 850s are cold enough for a flurry. 

 

yep, been here done this...

 

I don't think it takes an inland track over the delmarva at the very least. A bit more offshore than 6z = colder rain for us. Maybe if it exits closer to va beach on the same trajectory? #graspingatstraws

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its either going out to sea or its coming up as a rain maker. Ive seen this lousy movies 1000 times...bigger stronger storm--warmer...sheared POS..out to sea but the 850s are cold enough for a flurry. 

 

Pretty much.

 

I was scared that I might miss a snowstorm while I'm iN SC Thanksgiving.     GFS got awfully close on this run.

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Ji will be going to RIC next week for a chase after he looks at the euro snow maps. 

 

It's comical in the DC-Balt corridor. Snowhole. 

One of these days people are going to figure out that you need precip for snow.  You need that FIRST.  All of the worry about cold.....it will be very comforting if it's about 28 degrees next wed and partly cloudy.  At least its cold can be the chant.

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