Avdave Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Long way off to worry about details. There's a storm, there's cold at least in the vicinity, it won't be 70 on turkey day. It's a start. Yep, last time I checked today was only the 19th. No need to get invested into this yet, plenty of time to shaft the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Yep, last time I checked today was only the 19th. No need to get invested into this yet, plenty of time to shaft the region Or time enough to get where we need it. Possibilities go both ways. I'm with you though. I'm not getting invested in anything until there's at least some agreement with the Euro and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 GFS way colder. Sends snow off to the NW of the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Stronger high pressure in the Midwest and much faster storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Man long range GFS pumps a monster ridge into the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Correct me if I am wrong, but NoVa is snow at 186? Quite a change from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 It does look a little like 1/26/11 but H7 doesn't come close to closing off so don't press your luck. I doubt we get enough cold east of the mountains for anything but rain. 00z Navgem is is about to pull a 4/1/1996 at 180hrs. Too bad we probably wouldn't cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 6Z GFS goes from rain to snow even along I95 trend our friend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 6Z GFS goes from rain to snow even along I95 trend our friend? I'm in. I'm also in for the fantasyland blizzard about to be unleashed post-384 ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Storm will bounce around so the biggest thing I notice are the temps going into the weekend. There is some cold air coming for some solid - days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Euro must not have been to our liking since it hasn't been posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Euro must not have been to our liking since it hasn't been posted. it definitely came up the coast, unlike 12Z, but the free site is hard to figure temps to start are warmish but it too may have a changeover verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Certainly I don't know but I get the feeling that all of those uh oh signals that the 12z runs gave that opened the door for the December ain't looking pretty crowd to feel good...maybe flipped a bit back to allow the weenie crowd to think December may start out cold....I love me some model watching....70s on Thanksgiving...or is it 40s...or maybe 60...or how about 50s....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Certainly I don't know but I get the feeling that all of those uh oh signals that the 12z runs gave that opened the door for the December ain't looking pretty crowd to feel good...maybe flipped a bit back to allow the weenie crowd to think December may start out cold....I love me some model watching....70s on Thanksgiving...or is it 40s...or maybe 60...or how about 50s....lol Might be time to consider 30's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 it definitely came up the coast, unlike 12Z, but the free site is hard to figure temps to start are warmish but it too may have a changeover verbatim November or not, a storm coming up the coast has to draw interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 it definitely came up the coast, unlike 12Z, but the free site is hard to figure temps to start are warmish but it too may have a changeover verbatim DT did some analysis and shows exactly this scenario, cold rain, mountain snow, quick turn over to flurries at he end. Would like to see the Ens when people get a moment o share! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 DT did some analysis and shows exactly this scenario, cold rain, mountain snow, quick turn over to flurries at he end. Would like to see the Ens when people get a moment o share! Dave's analysis is pretty good on his website... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 it definitely came up the coast, unlike 12Z, but the free site is hard to figure temps to start are warmish but it too may have a changeover verbatim You can see it on wunderground. 850 tracks right over us, which is no good. Cold rain, probably upper 30s/low 40s. Very wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 You can see it on wunderground. 850 tracks right over us, which is no good. Cold rain, probably upper 30s/low 40s. Very wet. Euro hasn't been progressive enough so it'll shift s/e in fact, I won't be surprised if this thing shifts and misses us to our south/east just like the last one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Euro hasn't been progressive enough so it'll shift s/e in fact, I won't be surprised if this thing shifts and misses us to our south/east just like the last one I wouldn't be surprised either. I will take the cold rain please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Euro hasn't been progressive enough so it'll shift s/e in fact, I won't be surprised if this thing shifts and misses us to our south/east just like the last one Remember the old days when at this time we would talk about the train tracks being set for storm tracks and not necessarily worry if it was snow in November? I for one would rather see some form of coastal than a lakes cutter at this point...that's just me though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Certainly I don't know but I get the feeling that all of those uh oh signals that the 12z runs gave that opened the door for the December ain't looking pretty crowd to feel good...maybe flipped a bit back to allow the weenie crowd to think December may start out cold....I love me some model watching....70s on Thanksgiving...or is it 40s...or maybe 60...or how about 50s....lol 0z GEFS mean looks really good in the Day 11-15. 06z GEFS looks a fair bit different (but not bad, just not as good). Still a lot of variability. I think right now, it's best to realize we have a period of above climo potential from this coming weekend through at least mid-week after Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 0z GEFS mean looks really good in the Day 11-15. 06z GEFS looks a fair bit different (but not bad, just not as good). Still a lot of variability. I think right now, it's best to realize we have a period of above climo potential from this coming weekend through at least mid-week after Thanksgiving. I'll take the look in the PAC if it holds all day, every day compared to last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Remember the old days when at this time we would talk about the train tracks being set for storm tracks and not necessarily worry if it was snow in November? I for one would rather see some form of coastal than a lakes cutter at this point...that's just me though I agree and was thinking the same thing earlier, but I'm still uncertain whether the pattern won't be too progressive so I'm not ready to feel comfy with the idea of a Novie coastal rainstorm being in the bag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Euro is a solid interior storm. 995 lp smack dab over the delmarva @ hr 174. I'm not 100% sure I understand the progression. The primary lp tracks AL-GA and then some sort of redevelopment along the baroclinic zone? I suppose you can make the argument that the center of LP could easily end up being offshore but I don't think it's going to matter. Euro has the same weak LP tracking across the GL's. That's a bit of a dagger for keeping cold in place. Especially @ 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Euro is a solid interior storm. 995 lp smack dab over the delmarva @ hr 174. I'm not 100% sure I understand the progression. The primary lp tracks AL-GA and then some sort of redevelopment along the baroclinic zone? I suppose you can make the argument that the center of LP could easily end up being offshore but I don't think it's going to matter. Euro has the same weak LP tracking across the GL's. That's a bit of a dagger for keeping cold in place. Especially @ 850. You are worrying waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too much for something 7 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 You are worrying waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too much for something 7 days away lol- I'm not worried at all. There are no realistic signs that temps will work out. Until that happens I have modest interest at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 On another note....euro ens keep us below normal temp wise from tday through the first 4 days of Dec. If my -1 to -2 call is going to have any legs, I need to start the month with - departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 I'll take the look in the PAC if it holds all day, every day compared to last year Fo shizzle. lol- I'm not worried at all. There are no realistic signs that temps will work out. Until that happens I have modest interest at best. We need to go back to the Euro's idea from yesterday if we have hope for this to be a primarily snow event for us. We need the northern stream to outrace the southern stream, bring in the cold air, and then have the low sort of scoot off the coast near ORF. But, since I'm a snow w*ore, I'm happy to root for .75" of rain followed by .1" liquid-equiv snow that melts on contact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 We need to go back to the Euro's idea from yesterday if we have hope for this to be a primarily snow event for us. We need the northern stream to outrace the southern stream, bring in the cold air, and then have the low sort of scoot off the coast near ORF. But, since I'm a snow w*ore, I'm happy to root for .75" of rain followed by .1" liquid-equiv snow that melts on contact. I'm down wit dat too. Op and ens have moved back towards a better look for first week of dec. 6z gfs/gefs is considering a -nao option. There's a bit of a signal going on for the first week too. Another ull coming into the sw with an overall better setup at h5. Certainly worth paying attention too. #atmosphericmemory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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