snow. Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Until I see something to get in the way of progressive flow I won't be encouraged in extended ops or conducive patterns. Stating the obvious but it can't be denied. Having amplified wavelengths is fine for timing something though but there is no sense in over analyzing any threats outside of 5-6 days. When things appear and disappear every 6-12 hours it's a major red flag that the probability is very low. Not saying you do that at all. Just stating that taking op runs verbatim outside of 5 days or so is a recipe for hurt feelings. At least the pattern isn't boring or heartbreaking. Having things come together at some point in the near future is exponentially easier in this type of lw setup than last december when all hope was lost early in the game. That is the most troubling thing showing up now....that the pattern breaks down right after thanksgiving..the Aleutian high is not in a good position and has shrunk....the +PNA breaks down...the Atlantic is uncertain..still a lot of residual low level cold, but without a better more stable pattern that doesn't last...I guess the better tack is just to focus on next Monday-Wednesday and see if someone in the CWA can get lucky with some snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 I think most of us don't take snow maps seriously and would never use any other than for entertainment purposes only...they are fun to look at, but aren't meant as anything other than eye candy....we are all seasoned enough to use models, soundings, experience to forecast snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 19, 2013 Author Share Posted November 19, 2013 Matt, I think your Dec forecast is looking good. Today's ens forecast of the AO index has it rebounding back into positive range, the PNA looks to revert to negative and the ridge appears to be shrinking with the pattern possibly becoming a little more zonal besides being progressive. At least next week looks chilly but flurries look like the only real game in town. I don't think there will be enough residual cold air for the euro/gfs southern stream system to give us a snowstorm (famous last words). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Wes, you confirmed my biggest fears...lol. No biggie. IF the pattern does end up going that direction it's hardly unexpected. I've been waiting for some sort of signs that we can get any kind of block going and nothing has materialized. We've been teased a couple time and may very well start seeing them come back but for right now there is nothing special going on where we need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Euro looks like the same setup for a (pre-)Thankgiving coastal as 0z. Can anyone who's crazy enough to pay for WxBell confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Euro looks like the same setup for a (pre-)Thankgiving coastal as 0z. Can anyone who's crazy enough to pay for WxBell confirm? It is even colder and crushes the storm OTS. So we got warm GFS, middle ground CMC and cold off the coast euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 It is even colder and crushes the storm OTS. So we got warm GFS, middle ground CMC and cold off the coast euro. I'm not sure I agree it is crushed...it just doesn't amplify...and even if it did, it likely wouldn't be a snowstorm here...It is too warm the entire window of that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Wes, you confirmed my biggest fears...lol. No biggie. IF the pattern does end up going that direction it's hardly unexpected. I've been waiting for some sort of signs that we can get any kind of block going and nothing has materialized. We've been teased a couple time and may very well start seeing them come back but for right now there is nothing special going on where we need it. you guys that get all uptight without waiting for the Euro Control run deserve your mental anguish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Matt, I think your Dec forecast is looking good. Today's ens forecast of the AO index has it rebounding back into positive range, the PNA looks to revert to negative and the ridge appears to be shrinking with the pattern possibly becoming a little more zonal besides being progressive. At least next week looks chilly but flurries look like the only real game in town. I don't think there will be enough residual cold air for the euro/gfs southern stream system to give us a snowstorm (famous last words). It is a long month, but yeah..we are starting to see signs that the pattern will be pretty unimpressive to start the month...I think the good thing is we won't have some massive +EPO, so we will get cold shots and maybe the chance at a clipper or some weak wave... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Euro looks like the same setup for a (pre-)Thankgiving coastal as 0z. Can anyone who's crazy enough to pay for WxBell confirm? Pretty big difference in handling the vort compared to the gfs. Much more of a w-e trajectory across the gulf coast states. Basically digs it to the coast of MS/AL. 850 low forms in the baroclinic zone off of the nc coast and ends up too far out to sea to do much damage. Very tight precip gradient in a straight line from the GA mtns to BOS. We do get some precip and some snow verbatim but not much. More to the SE of dc but it's rain. If you take a compromise of the gfs/euro there is potential for a modest snow on the northern edge. Euro is a good bit colder than the gfs where it counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Need more spacing between the southern low and the reinforcing cold shot, they're coming through at the same time, we need the cold air to be reinforced first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Need more spacing between the southern low and the reinforcing cold shot, they're coming through at the same time, we need the cold air to be reinforced first. The longwave pattern blows plus it is November...plus the euro has an amplification bias....plus it is too warm....so what are our chances?....2%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 The longwave pattern blows plus it is November...plus the euro has an amplification bias....plus it is too warm....so what are our chances?....2%? True, just saying what I think needs to happen for any snow shot. (especially the burbs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 The longwave pattern blows plus it is November...plus the euro has an amplification bias....plus it is too warm....so what are our chances?....2%? well you said 3 pluses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 no blocking, but not the worst pattern on the euro...there is no blocking and too much ridging near NF....without a phase, I don't think there is much chance of something amplifying and coming up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 no blocking, but not the worst pattern on the euro...there is no blocking and too much ridging near NF....without a phase, I don't think there is much chance of something amplifying and coming up the coast It's not bad at all being in a progressive flow and having a storm track enter the socal coast. At least there's moisture with those as opposed to a n stream vort diving from the Canada. Even without blocking some energy can get caught into the flow at our latitude. Maybe one of the reasons over running has been a distant memory because we haven't seen this look for a long time. At least I don't remember any in the last 3 years. You won't hear me complain when a slug is aimed at us from the tn valley and hp to the north. I would jump for joy having a 2-4" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 I will make this extremely scientific observation: Just coming inside about 4:45pm, there is a distinctively wintry chill and feel to the air. Nice. And yes, I know: Just wait until next week .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 18z GFS...snowstorm for portions of New England...yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 18z GFS...snowstorm for portions of New England...yay! It's getting a bit closer. Still plenty of time to get some luck with that one hopefully. Least long range is back to freezing. Snowing in the south for 12/5 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 18z GFS...snowstorm for portions of New England...yay! the next one has our name written all over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 the next one has our name rain written all over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 18z GFS...snowstorm for portions of New England...yay! So we have too root against slow and wrapped up. We need faster / progressive with an out to sea track that fringes us with a period of moderate precip. Euro kinda thought about that solution earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 So we have too root against slow and wrapped up. We need faster / progressive with an out to sea track that fringes us with a period of moderate precip. Euro kinda thought about that solution earlier. That or just get a stronger cold shot out in front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 That high pressure placement and strength leading up to T-day is key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 That or just get a stronger cold shot out in front. IMO- it's more of a speed issue. Any cold is going to be on the move in this flow. We need the system to arrive (in whatever form) a day earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 IMO- it's more of a speed issue. Any cold is going to be on the move in this flow. We need the system to arrive (in whatever form) a day earlier. I'm sure whatever is modeled now will change completely in 24hrs so we will just have to see how things sort out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Looks like euro ens are really close. DT's post from euro ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 While we all know whose analysis is above, I'd at least credit him with it in the post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Long way off to worry about details. There's a storm, there's cold at least in the vicinity, it won't be 70 on turkey day. It's a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Is Dave back? Anyway, my take is unchanged. Thru at least mid January we will continue to get 3-5 day cold spells and 1-2 day mild shots. Snow will come when as the cold air wanes we get some upper air warm front light snows. Unfortunatley these will be 1 to 3" events which don't last because the mild air is coming in. The other method of snow delivery will be frontal riders but these mostly dump better snows to our south and east but that snow will stay around for a while because it's cold or very cold. We nickle and dime ourselves to 10-15" total for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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