WinterWxLuvr Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 There's nothing on the GFS to lock the HP in place, i.e., upper air confluence, a -NAO, a 50/50 low. None of those things. The 0z Euro gives us snow because it shows a tail-end frontal wave that cranks as it goes up the coast. So, the frontal passage brings in a nice fresh airmass that's plenty cold immediately before the storm. This is the scenario I've been mentioning for a week. With this progressive pattern, we need something like that if there's any hope for getting snow out of something more than a weak clipper/vort passage. I think I'll just go with that Euro snow map verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 If that Euro snowfall map happens, screw Thanksgiving in Rockville -- I'm staying home and playing in the snow. My family will have to do without the green bean casserole I'm in charge of making. I'd change the dish to sno peas..... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 I think I'll just go with that Euro snow map verbatim. Except for well well NW of DC the euro isn't showing snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 If that Euro snowfall map happens, screw Thanksgiving in Rockville -- I'm staying home and playing in the snow. My family will have to do without the green bean casserole I'm in charge of making. It might happen, but as with 98% of snow maps it isn't what the model depicts at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 It might happen, but as with 98% of snow maps it isn't what the model depicts at all that's why i said "if" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 I suppose I'll be a deb down this AM. All the encouraging signs in the lr are leaving the party. Pattern isn't going to crap but it's not looking conducive either. The classic +PNA look is gone, the +AO is re-establishing itself, and nothing is showing a favorable -nao. I looked at the euro and gfs ens and they are both showing about the same thing. Wavelengths are short and progressive with no blocking. The only thing that continues to help deliver seasonably cool air is the aleutian ridge. Of course things can change but this progression back to a +AO is something I've been concerned with and sort of expected in some ways. Nothing looks like a torch either so that is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 I suppose I'll be a deb down this AM. All the encouraging signs in the lr are leaving the party. Pattern isn't going to crap but it's not looking conducive either. The classic +PNA look is gone, the +AO is re-establishing itself, and nothing is showing a favorable -nao. I looked at the euro and gfs ens and they are both showing about the same thing. Wavelengths are short and progressive with no blocking. The only thing that continues to help deliver seasonably cool air is the aleutian ridge. Of course things can change but this progression back to a +AO is something I've been concerned with and sort of expected in some ways. Nothing looks like a torch either so that is good. Yeah, kind of had the same thoughts but didn't want to say it. But, this is really the first time the models have backed off the big +PNA/-EPO combo a bit, so I'll wait a few more runs to state that it's "real" with more confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Yeah, kind of had the same thoughts but didn't want to say it. But, this is really the first time the models have backed off the big +PNA/-EPO combo a bit, so I'll wait a few more runs to state that it's "real" with more confidence. Until I see something to get in the way of progressive flow I won't be encouraged in extended ops or conducive patterns. Stating the obvious but it can't be denied. Having amplified wavelengths is fine for timing something though but there is no sense in over analyzing any threats outside of 5-6 days. When things appear and disappear every 6-12 hours it's a major red flag that the probability is very low. Not saying you do that at all. Just stating that taking op runs verbatim outside of 5 days or so is a recipe for hurt feelings. At least the pattern isn't boring or heartbreaking. Having things come together at some point in the near future is exponentially easier in this type of lw setup than last december when all hope was lost early in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 I suppose I'll be a deb down this AM. All the encouraging signs in the lr are leaving the party. Pattern isn't going to crap but it's not looking conducive either. The classic +PNA look is gone, the +AO is re-establishing itself, and nothing is showing a favorable -nao. I looked at the euro and gfs ens and they are both showing about the same thing. Wavelengths are short and progressive with no blocking. The only thing that continues to help deliver seasonably cool air is the aleutian ridge. Of course things can change but this progression back to a +AO is something I've been concerned with and sort of expected in some ways. Nothing looks like a torch either so that is good. quit feeding the beasts (Matt and Wes) with these kinds of posts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 quit feeding the beasts (Matt and Wes) with these kinds of posts! lol- I'm changing my style this year. I'm still the board's optimist but I'm not turning a blind eye on things that shouldn't be overlooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Given the progressive nature of the flow, I won't be surprised if things get zonal and even more progressive in the long term. But, on the positive, nothing looks like an entrenched bad pattern developing. So, that's still a step up over recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 lol- I'm changing my style this year. I'm still the board's optimist but I'm not turning a blind eye on things that shouldn't be overlooked. anything for chicks you dog!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 CFS is going back to its warm December look http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20131119.201312.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 CFS is going back to its warm December look http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20131119.201312.gif Well, that's it then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Bad patterns or good patterns, it's all just modeled patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Euro control was even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 CFS is going back to its warm December look http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20131119.201312.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 CFS is going back to its warm December look http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20131119.201312.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html Not that I put really any stock in the CFSv2, but shouldn't the run with the longer period of initial conditions be more reliable and less subject to variability just based on math? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Well, the gfs is showing some energy in front of the vort in tx get caught up in the flow and sending it our way before the antecedent airmass rots out. I suppose it's a real possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 12z GGEM is at least entertaining to take a peek at in the long range for days 9-10.. big Miller A and there are Highs around... probably rain but decent to see a nice Miller A for once -- right during Thanksgiving as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Well, the gfs is showing some energy in front of the vort in tx get caught up in the flow and sending it our way before the antecedent airmass rots out. I suppose it's a real possibility. Canadian has the same thing late Monday/early Tuesday. I think the Thanksgiving Miller-A type storm the GFS and Canadian are advertising is going to be rain unless we can get something to drag in a fresh airmass like the 0z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Canadian has the same thing late Monday/early Tuesday. I think the Thanksgiving Miller-A type storm the GFS and Canadian are advertising is going to be rain unless we can get something to drag in a fresh airmass like the 0z Euro. Each run is getting a bit closer. Snow this run makes it down to the PA/MD line last night it was up in northern PA and day before southern NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Each run is getting a bit closer. Snow this run makes it down to the PA/MD line last night it was up in northern PA and day before southern NY. I don't see snow near the M/D line on either model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Canadian has the same thing late Monday/early Tuesday. I think the Thanksgiving Miller-A type storm the GFS and Canadian are advertising is going to be rain unless we can get something to drag in a fresh airmass like the 0z Euro. It's an uphill battle to get the temps right in this setup. It would be quite a bummer to have a true miller A with a good track soak us. The vort pass on the gfs isn't that good. It's not very robust and not even close to being closed off. I would have to assume we need it to be closed off with a good track to make things happen. I think option #2 is to have a more ene trajectory off the coast and out to sea (and a faster track). Could have enough cold air around for the northern edge of the shield to be snow. Won't be a prolific precip even but I guess we have to choose our battles here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 If conversational flurries get anybody excited, I still think this Sunday could have some of that. Strong cold-air advection creating instability, a decent vortmax rotating through the trough overhead at around 126hrs on the GFS and the fetch off Lake Erie could give us some scattered light SHSN/flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 I don't see snow near the M/D line on either model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 It's an uphill battle to get the temps right in this setup. It would be quite a bummer to have a true miller A with a good track soak us. The vort pass on the gfs isn't that good. It's not very robust and not even close to being closed off. I would have to assume we need it to be closed off with a good track to make things happen. I think option #2 is to have a more ene trajectory off the coast and out to sea (and a faster track). Could have enough cold air around for the northern edge of the shield to be snow. Won't be a prolific precip even but I guess we have to choose our battles here. Yeah, this is a possibility. Might also be a scenario where we punt the 1st Miller-A to bring in some cold air and get a transient 50/50 and -NAO so the 2nd one (which the GFS has on/off advertised around the 2nd-4th) has some cold air to work with. But just think, normally, we get Miller A's with temps near 40F in January! Now we might do it in November! That's progress, my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Is that total snowfall accumulated in the 240hr period? Maybe some of that is wraparound, but I don't see snow on the meteocentre maps or Ewall. I'm also not buying 240hr Canadian model wraparound snow much. I think just the meteorology of the situation, as presented in the Canadian and GFS, are clearly nearly 100% rain scenarios for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Yeah, this is a possibility. Might also be a scenario where we punt the 1st Miller-A to bring in some cold air and get a transient 50/50 and -NAO so the 2nd one (which the GFS has on/off advertised around the 2nd-4th) has some cold air to work with. But just think, normally, we get Miller A's with temps near 40F in January! Now we might do it in November! That's progress, my friend. Some good points. Tee'ing up 2 ul low into the desert sw back to back is noteworthy. The GFS is really slow moving the first one out of socal/baja. Getting it to eject just 12-24 hours earlier changes everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Is that total snowfall accumulated in the 240hr period? Maybe some of that is wraparound, but I don't see snow on the meteocentre maps or Ewall. I'm also not buying 240hr Canadian model wraparound snow much. I think just the meteorology of the situation, as presented in the Canadian and GFS, are clearly nearly 100% rain scenarios for us. It has some front end then some wrap around. Either case the 850 line in only in central pa this run so it has been getting colder each run. As always we just need one thread the needle cold shot to come in at the right time. Still way out there it will change so it bears watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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