snow. Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 November is always like this. lol. It was in the 60's and 70's in November 2009, wonder if anyone was crying about it then too. I don't really understand your post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 I don't really understand your post November always has big temperature swings, why is everyone getting all bent out of shape about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 I don't really understand your post does anyone, ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 November always has big temperature swings, why is everyone getting all bent out of shape about it? 1) You are wrong...To wit - see my post from today about last November 2) You haven't followed the narrative at all....Tennman's point was that he thinks the current cycle (more cold than warmth) is a cycle that will continue... nobody is getting bent out of shape about anything...In particular the post you replied to had nothing to do with getting bent out of shape...but rather a reiteration of Tennman's thoughts about the pattern...which if confirmed might be a GOOD pattern for us as it would portend a cold December.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 does anyone, ever? I have mostly ignored Mr. B over the years...Is he always like this?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 I don't really understand your post Disengage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 1) You are wrong...To wit - see my post from today about last November 2) You haven't followed the narrative at all....Tennman's point was that he thinks the current cycle (more cold than warmth) is a cycle that will continue... nobody is getting bent out of shape about anything...In particular the post you replied to had nothing to do with getting bent out of shape...but rather a reiteration of Tennman's thoughts about the pattern...which if confirmed might be a GOOD pattern for us as it would portend a cold December.... I don't go back and read every post. I missed his, so thought he was just complaining. Thanks for clearing it up. And last November looks pretty temperature swingy to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 I don't go back and read every post. I missed his, so thought he was just complaining. Thanks for clearing it up. And last November looks pretty temperature swingy to me. it wasn't "swingy"....we had blocking...it was an extremely stable pattern for November...you don't get a -3 November at DCA with big swings..of course there are always going to be some swings in a high SD month...it isn't July... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 it wasn't "swingy"....we had blocking...it was an extremely stable pattern for November...you don't get a -3 November at DCA with big swings..of course there are always going to be some swings in a high SD month...it isn't July... Well ya Sandy's aftermath controlled the start of the month that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Well ya Sandy's aftermath controlled the start of the month that's for sure. The atlantic has been opposite this year which is why we are so volatile despite the cold air mechanism...Bob Chill among others has mentioned how the break down of this pattern is usually delayed as the models rush it too quickly...I'm not sure any of us really believe in the projected changes in the Atlantic, but the big advertised -EPO/-PNA seems legit and more realistic to me and would get us pretty cold...what say you?..cold December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 i'd like to see more ridges poking poleward than the flat ridges we've seen recently near AK. it gets cold but the storm track isn't forced southward enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 The atlantic has been opposite this year which is why we are so volatile despite the cold air mechanism...Bob Chill among others has mentioned how the break down of this pattern is usually delayed as the models rush it too quickly...I'm not sure any of us really believe in the projected changes in the Atlantic, but the big advertised -EPO/-PNA seems legit and more realistic to me and would get us pretty cold...what say you?..cold December? The EPO does seem to go pretty negative and the PNA is a tricky one, but I been thinking 0 to -1 for December. Lets just hope the NAO and AO does indeed go negative as the models show. We haven't had a good winter since the switch from Eastern's to American's, let hope we can get a multiple thread storm obs page for once. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 The atlantic has been opposite this year which is why we are so volatile despite the cold air mechanism...Bob Chill among others has mentioned how the break down of this pattern is usually delayed as the models rush it too quickly...I'm not sure any of us really believe in the projected changes in the Atlantic, but the big advertised -EPO/-PNA seems legit and more realistic to me and would get us pretty cold...what say you?..cold December? I think Dec. 88 had a similar set up and that was a pretty chilly month although not much in terms of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 i'd like to see more ridges poking poleward than the flat ridges we've seen recently near AK. it gets cold but the storm track isn't forced southward enough It will probably happen...it's been advertised over and over,....stronger, more poleward, over Siberia and with a +PNA....though without a block teh storm track probably still sucks for us....we need the Nino pattern HM has suggested with an Aleutian low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 I think Dec. 88 had a similar set up and that was a pretty chilly month although not much in terms of snowfall. We had a big +PNA in Dec 1988 so it was around normal to slightly below...the rest of the pattern kind of blew... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 We had a big +PNA in Dec 1988 so it was around normal to slightly below...the rest of the pattern kind of blew... Thanks for the clarification. I wasn't sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Euro control run for 4000 please Alex? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Euro ens are backing off a bit on the +pna @ d10. h5 heights in the west and in the nao domain space imply that the progressive pattern will potentially continue with alternating periods of warm/cool. Surface temp anomalies look "ok" d11-16 around here. Basically seasonable to a few degree below through the period. Not much skill at that range. Just grabbing clues from the maps I can see. Right now the 12gfs is on it's own in the lr irt the pv getting squished south.and some blocking showing up. It's going to be a long 2 weeks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Euro ens are backing off a bit on the +pna @ d10. h5 heights in the west and in the nao domain space imply that the progressive pattern will potentially continue with alternating periods of warm/cool. Surface temp anomalies look "ok" d11-16 around here. Basically seasonable to a few degree below through the period. Not much skill at that range. Just grabbing clues from the maps I can see. Right now the 12gfs is on it's own in the lr irt the pv getting squished south.and some blocking showing up. It's going to be a long 2 weeks.... Yep till we get better idea on things and what this cut off system is supposed to do, it is going to be a pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Anything but a warm Thanksgiving. I hate warm Thanksgivings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Anything but a warm Thanksgiving. I hate warm Thanksgivings. 18z gfs says you get to wear your fur coat on turkey day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 18z gfs says you get to wear your fur coat on turkey day There is a surprising amount of model agreement....Canadian/GFS ensembles, GFS, Euro (extrapolated slightly since it ends Thursday morning) of low to mid 40s for Thanksgiving...I will bump this post next week...My guess for a week now has been around 50/slightly below normal, and I wouldn't change it yet, but that is a very low risk basic idea based on the projected pattern... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 There is a surprising amount of model agreement....Canadian/GFS ensembles, GFS, Euro (extrapolated slightly since it ends Thursday morning) of low to mid 40s for Thanksgiving...I will bump this post next week...My guess for a week now has been around 50/slightly below normal, and I wouldn't change it yet, but that is a very low risk basic idea based on the projected pattern... I think that's a solid assumption...what's crazy is we are still talking day 10...what were models saying 10 days ago about today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 18z gfs says you get to wear your fur coat on turkey day I will prepare my shorts for turkey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 A bit chilly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Weenie range GFS continues to threaten to bring the icebox... looks like a piece of the PV comes crashing into the Northern Plains by 360 (esp with 504DM heights in N MN at 384) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Euro and Navgem say Happy Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 If that Euro snowfall map happens, screw Thanksgiving in Rockville -- I'm staying home and playing in the snow. My family will have to do without the green bean casserole I'm in charge of making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 6z.GFS shows a coastal storm late next week. Seems to be slower to reach us than the EURO. The storm moves up the coast with northeast winds but the cold air retreats. Why would that be with HP north of us? I would have thought that the storm would bring in some cold air with that circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 6z.GFS shows a coastal storm late next week. Seems to be slower to reach us than the EURO. The storm moves up the coast with northeast winds but the cold air retreats. Why would that be with HP north of us? I would have thought that the storm would bring in some cold air with that circulation. There's nothing on the GFS to lock the HP in place, i.e., upper air confluence, a -NAO, a 50/50 low. None of those things. The 0z Euro gives us snow because it shows a tail-end frontal wave that cranks as it goes up the coast. So, the frontal passage brings in a nice fresh airmass that's plenty cold immediately before the storm. This is the scenario I've been mentioning for a week. With this progressive pattern, we need something like that if there's any hope for getting snow out of something more than a weak clipper/vort passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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