Bob Chill Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Uh no... not with +3 850s at 12z Knock the lp near hudson bay out of the picture and tday is definitely below normal. That's the wrench in the run from being cold start to the holiday weekend. We'll get a new look every hours for day and days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Then the GFS is amazingly consistent with a coastal low on Thanksgiving-Black Friday time frame. Jinxed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Eh...don't think so with the scenario the GFS shows. But I could certainly see some cold air-advection instability/lake-effect flurries getting over the mountains on Sunday. GFS shows another stupid midnight high on Sunday with temps falling all day. Frigid day next Monday too. i was speaking of jonjon's area. It always snows up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 GFS Days 10-15 punch a nice ridge in the Eastern Pacific, but refuses to bring it onshore to the West Coast. Zonal flow dominates much of central and eastern US per h5 But looks like a pretty decent arctic shot coming in by 384... 1043 H with -30c 850s in Western Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 i was speaking of jonjon's area. It always snows up there Yeah, he'll probably have 2 feet on the ground for Turkey time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Jinxed it. nah, it will be back..and then gone again...and then back...and then gone. Kinda like athlete's foot in a dorm shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 I don't think 70 but thought it was funny how when I first stated that it is what the models were showing...and each subsequent tongue and cheek post was what the models were showing. I know they are showing chilly right now but it wouldn't surprise me if things swing back warm as this week goes by. But what do I know I'm just looking at model output....oh wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 I'll take my chances with a general setup like this in early dec. There will be no shortage of cold invading the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 nah, it will be back..and then gone again...and then back...and then gone. Kinda like athlete's foot in a dorm shower. The old nemesis of a strong/dominant northern stream is very apparent on the 12z GFS handling of the 2 post Thanksgiving storm chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 The old nemesis of a strong/dominant northern stream is very apparent on the 12z GFS handling of the 2 post Thanksgiving storm chances. Yup, but its bringing in the cold air in the long range, which is fine by me. Would rather get the cold in here first then try to deal with precip... I wonder if the GFS is bringing a piece of the PV into the US in weenie land with the -30 850s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 The old nemesis of a strong/dominant northern stream is very apparent on the 12z GFS handling of the 2 post Thanksgiving storm chances. If you look at the npac 250 and h5 panels there are some subtle hints of split flow. Just need an imaginary vort to undercut the imaginary nasty ak ridge. About the best looking -nao of any gfs run i've seen. Not optimal but pair that with the ak ridge and pv get the squeeze. Considering time of year (as yoda already said), let's get a sick blob of cold down here first. I'd rather have that and take chances rather than an active storm track and borderline temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 By my count, 5 of the GEFS members have a tail-end wave on the Saturday cutter, 4 of which would give us good snowstorms verbatim. Also of note that many of the GEFS members are even colder than the Op for Sunday-Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 By my count, 5 of the GEFS members have a tail-end wave on the Saturday cutter, 4 of which would give us good snowstorms verbatim. Also of note that many of the GEFS members are even colder than the Op for Sunday-Monday. Thanks for posting. Now I don't have to look. The ens members is what had me interested in this weekend. Nice to know the possibility still exists in model land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Anyway.....70 on November 18th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 it be windy outside and my outside temp reads 66. Balmindy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Looks like 12z GGEM pops a Miller B at 132? http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1&hh=132 Keeps the idea of a Coastal Plain runner Days 9 and 10 then brings in the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Looks like 12z GGEM pops a Miller B at 132? http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1&hh=132 Euro is way north and in the 50's and showery before cold air crushes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Cold 3-5 days, then mild 1-2, then cold. It's underway and going to continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Cold 3-5 days, then mild 1-2, then cold. It's underway and going to continue. It's november... calm down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Euro is meh. It shows like 8" of snow for the whole south central part of the country even into southern Texas, I don't see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 It's november... calm down. He has been making the case that the current temp progression is a stable one that could last a while...I don't think any need for him to calm down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Euro is meh. It shows like 8" of snow for the whole south central part of the country even into southern Texas, I don't see that happening. It's November, calm down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 He has been making the case that the current temp progression is a stable one that could last a while...I don't think any need for him to calm down I agree with this case too. Yea, the globals have been throwing the -nao cookie out there lately but there is no evidence that there is anything to get in the way of fast moving fronts, ridges, and troughs. We'll see where we are in a week or so. Maybe more promising signs start to appear in a timeframe with some model skill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Anyway.....70 on November 18th? variability really makes it hard to get a big minus departure..after today's ~+12..we will only be around -0.5 for the month....last November we were -3 for the month because all the warm shots were simply reloads that were mostly of the +2 variety...having a bad Atlantic is brutal when it comes to entrenching cold shots even when the PAC is generating decent ones...I am skeptical how much of a big deal the cold will be starting Sunday/Monday...Euro is showing signs of se ridging,.,.the old 70 at ORF and 45 at MRB type scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 11/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 variability really makes it hard to get a big minus departure..after today's ~+12..we will only be around -0.5 for the month....last November we were -3 for the month because all the warm shots were simply reloads that were mostly of the +2 variety...having a bad Atlantic is brutal when it comes to entrenching cold shots even when the PAC is generating decent ones...I am skeptical how much of a big deal the cold will be starting Sunday/Monday...Euro is showing signs of se ridging,.,.the old 70 at ORF and 45 at MRB type scenario it just feels like the cold will not be that impressive but that's just a product of living here and worrying about what can go wrong. Realistically it's November...I just don't want to be able to cook my turkey on the sidewalk...50 and cloudy puts me in the spirit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 He has been making the case that the current temp progression is a stable one that could last a while...I don't think any need for him to calm down He should be a moderator, not understanding the history of the comments you are ruling on is a prerequisite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 He should be a moderator, not understanding the history of the comments you are ruling on is a prerequisite Heh. Full point awarded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 He has been making the case that the current temp progression is a stable one that could last a while...I don't think any need for him to calm down November is always like this. lol. It was in the 60's and 70's in November 2009, wonder if anyone was crying about it then too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 69.9°F for the high today at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.