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November 2013 obs and discussion

usedtobe

By usedtobe,
in Mid Atlantic

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted

so are we ignoring this?

I've said to keep an eye on this coming weekend since last Monday or Tuesday.  6z GFS has an Apps runner, GGEM has a snow event and the Euro has the storm you showed.  Definitely a storm signal for this weekend.  Then the GFS is amazingly consistent with a coastal low on Thanksgiving-Black Friday time frame.  Certainly some potential there, even if it is November.  

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted

I've said to keep an eye on this coming weekend since last Monday or Tuesday.  6z GFS has an Apps runner, GGEM has a snow event and the Euro has the storm you showed.  Definitely a storm signal for this weekend.  Then the GFS is amazingly consistent with a coastal low on Thanksgiving-Black Friday time frame.  Certainly some potential there, even if it is November.  

 

I expected a thread by now :P

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted

And based on what Ginxy posted in the NE subforum, the Euro ensembles have a storm in that time frame as well.  

 

I had briefly seen you mention it over the last week, but Adam (aka the Torch Lover) posted it on the philly site, so I figured if he was bringing it up to discuss, it was worth keeping an eye on

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted

I had briefly seen you mention it over the last week, but Adam (aka the Torch Lover) posted it on the philly site, so I figured if he was bringing it up to discuss, it was worth keeping an eye on

The models seemed to have a run of showing a storm in that time frame early last week when I first posted it (which was more based on the favorable looking pattern on the ensemble mean), then the lost it and now it's back with a vengeance.  Either way, I think our odds of some part of the region (other than JonJon) getting measurable snow before December 1 are better than climatology for sure.  Still not a great chance, but not hail mary odds either.  

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted

I've said to keep an eye on this coming weekend since last Monday or Tuesday.  6z GFS has an Apps runner, GGEM has a snow event and the Euro has the storm you showed.  Definitely a storm signal for this weekend.  Then the GFS is amazingly consistent with a coastal low on Thanksgiving-Black Friday time frame.  Certainly some potential there, even if it is November.  

 

I'm on the same page...still think something interesting can happen in that time frame, although the week after is certainly better.     Prepping my family for a disappearance on T-day.

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted

i still have to cancel this one yet....baby steps baby!

 

:lol: great news!

 

LWX mentions the Euro in their long range

 

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY

NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING APPROACHES FROM THE

WEST. SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH

THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE

EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. 17/12Z GFS

OPERATIONAL IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ITS 06Z ENSEMBLE MEAN AND

17/00Z ECMWF OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH OVERALL PATTERN AND

TIMING OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP A WAVE ON

THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. THE ECMWF IS ALSO A BIT COLDER

FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS A 70/30 BLEND

OF THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN/06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

THIS RESULTS IN A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AND ENDING FROM

WEST TO EAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH BOTH

THE GFS AND TO A GREATER EXTENT THE ECMWF HINT AT COLDER AIR MOVING

IN BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS...KEPT ANY MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS

MIXED WITH RAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR GIVEN

CLIMATOLOGY AND INHERENT UNCERTAINTY/MODEL SPREAD AT THIS TIME RANGE.

A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL

TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE NEXT WEEKEND.

 

 

I have rain/snow for Saturday night :weight_lift:

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

The models seemed to have a run of showing a storm in that time frame early last week when I first posted it (which was more based on the favorable looking pattern on the ensemble mean), then the lost it and now it's back with a vengeance.  Either way, I think our odds of some part of the region (other than JonJon) getting measurable snow before December 1 are better than climatology for sure.  Still not a great chance, but not hail mary odds either.  

 

Last night's euro ens look pretty good @ h5 at the end of the run. Would imply at least a semi-active pattern in the east half of the country with a pretty classic +pna. I suppose split flow is possible but that's just a guess looking at the mean. 

 

 I only have access to a couple maps for days 11-16. Solid below normal surface temps through the period for us. Have no idea what the ul's look like. 

 

6z gefs looks really good too but lalaland isn't never a place to place any bets.

 

One thing I don't like is no good -nao signal. Cold shots would keep moving along. I doesn't snow here in late Nov often at all for very good reasons. Our average high is 20 degrees above freezing. Yea, it can snow at night and all that but I honestly have little confidence in any real measurable snow this month. If anything "real" does set up it will end up being a timing/threading situation without a good block. Lotsa feelings get hurt buying into that scenario even at medium range let alone long range. 

 

On the flip side, we've had some unusual weather compared to the last couple since late winter last year. Unusual in the sense that it tried to snow big late season, summer was easy, first freeze basically hit climo, and now it continues to just not want to be warm here. Big bounce year in the arctic just adds to how things "seem different". If we did have measurable snow in Nov this year it would be a continuance of things being different. Maybe expecting the unexpected is a good way to look at this season but I'm too damaged from the last 2-3 to get all excited about Nov. 

 

I'm more focused on early Dec. So far so good but my fears of the ao reloading and the pna flipping keep me realistic. If it happens it's hardly unexpected. I'm encouraged with what seems to be an ample supply of some really cold arctic air meandering around in Canada. If we can get an entrenched pattern that can deliver it to the lower latitudes in Dec we could be in for a memorable month. At the very least....the panic button is slowly gathering dust. 

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted

I've said to keep an eye on this coming weekend since last Monday or Tuesday. 6z GFS has an Apps runner, GGEM has a snow event and the Euro has the storm you showed. Definitely a storm signal for this weekend. Then the GFS is amazingly consistent with a coastal low on Thanksgiving-Black Friday time frame. Certainly some potential there, even if it is November.

You're right about the GFS. It has had the storm look for Thanksgiving since beyond 300 hours. Might have been longer as I remember posing a question of snow or flurries on Thanksgiving last week. I remember you highlighting that period a long way back.

I'm still intrigued by this weekend as a few of the GFS members show at least solutions of interest. Matt chose one heck of a weekend to do a contest.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Bob chill...does weather bell have any euro products that go out 11-15 days?

 

Yes, temp and precip only for d11-16 ens and control. Snowmaps included! lol. I really wish they had upper air but they don't unless it's hidden somewhere. Site nav sucks. Here's the link for our region:

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/xecmwf_ma.php

 

you can click the domain and change it. Links are below deterministic. 

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Avdave

Avdave

Posted
Posted

:lol: great news!

 

LWX mentions the Euro in their long range

 

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY

NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING APPROACHES FROM THE

WEST. SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH

THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE

EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. 17/12Z GFS

OPERATIONAL IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ITS 06Z ENSEMBLE MEAN AND

17/00Z ECMWF OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH OVERALL PATTERN AND

TIMING OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP A WAVE ON

THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. THE ECMWF IS ALSO A BIT COLDER

FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS A 70/30 BLEND

OF THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN/06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

THIS RESULTS IN A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AND ENDING FROM

WEST TO EAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH BOTH

THE GFS AND TO A GREATER EXTENT THE ECMWF HINT AT COLDER AIR MOVING

IN BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS...KEPT ANY MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS

MIXED WITH RAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR GIVEN

CLIMATOLOGY AND INHERENT UNCERTAINTY/MODEL SPREAD AT THIS TIME RANGE.

A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL

TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE NEXT WEEKEND.

 

 

I have rain/snow for Saturday night :weight_lift:

Same thing here though knowing it will be all rain for the area

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted

12z def keeps things interesting for the weekend.  rain to flurries at the end?

Eh...don't think so with the scenario the GFS shows.  But I could certainly see some cold air-advection instability/lake-effect flurries getting over the mountains on Sunday.  GFS shows another stupid midnight high on Sunday with temps falling all day.  Frigid day next Monday too.  

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Eh...don't think so with the scenario the GFS shows.  But I could certainly see some cold air-advection instability/lake-effect flurries getting over the mountains on Sunday.  GFS shows another stupid midnight high on Sunday with temps falling all day.  Frigid day next Monday too.  

 

35-40 for highs looks like... going to be an  interesting contest

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