mappy Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Looks like a foggy night with the easterly flow. The good news fro cold lovers is both the gfs and euro pop a positive PNA and the euro also has a neg nao in the long range.GEFS really pumps the aluetian ridge too d13-16. Pretty good squeeze going on with polar air. To be honest, I kinda wish it was a few weeks later. I love a pattern like this (at least for temps) but happening in Nov may waste a pattern at our latitude. Now watch it verify just to flip in early Dec.On the flip side, pattern changes like typically take longer than advertised and if we get an anomalous -AO to start December we could just be getting started... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 GEFS really pumps the aluetian ridge too d13-16. Pretty good squeeze going on with polar air. To be honest, I kinda wish it was a few weeks later. I love a pattern like this (at least for temps) but happening in Nov may waste a pattern at our latitude. Now watch it verify just to flip in early Dec. On the flip side, pattern changes like typically take longer than advertised and if we get an anomalous -AO to start December we could just be getting started... Obviously a favorable pattern developing during Thanksgiving week has been advertised on many model runs the last few several days. As you say, they often take a little longer to develop than what is first advertised on the long-range runs. What we'll have to see if whether this is really a pattern change to something that is semi-permanent for several weeks or just a transient +PNA/-AO regime. Either way, let's hope we can cash in and get some measurable snow during the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Lets go to Ingalls, VA. lol 16 17:55 S 8 0.15 Heavy Snow OV Sensor fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Great contest by Matt. The models are quite variable for the time frame he chose. If the latest Gfs is correct, my guesses are gonna be bad. The week of Thanksgiving still looks interesting. I don't know what the Euro is showing. And heading into Dec looks active at least in the gfs world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 JYO has had a temp of 52 degrees every hour since 10am yesterday....fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Slight risk for severe tonight... mainly damaging wind gusts 30% wind knocking on door of NW zone per 1630 OTLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 If you don't like Nov miller A's then do not look at the 240 h5 and h85 panels of the 12z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 An interesting thing is that the euro and gfs both show a closed h5 low tracking the desert sw into tx during the same timeframe. The euro has been showing a texarkana snowstorm for at least 3 runs...soooo....the low track is consistent from socal to tx. This is how we get miller A's. Does it cut, get sheared out, or stick us? The WD index is in near record territory... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 An interesting thing is that the euro and gfs both show a closed h5 low tracking the desert sw into tx during the same timeframe. The euro has been showing a texarkana snowstorm for at least 3 runs...soooo....the low track is consistent from socal to tx. This is how we get miller A's. Does it cut, get sheared out, or stick us? The WD index is in near record territory... 42F and mod rain. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 42F and mod rain. Book it. One vote for the cut/dryslot Jokes aside, storms like this are typically sniffed out at this range. The details change a lot of course but a long track vort across the sw/tx can be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 I have been watching that too Bob... fully expecting rain, but interesting to see nevertheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 That time has shown a storm on various ens members for a few days. Storminess originating in the southern plains has too. Doesn't look cold enough for snow. Yet. Curious as to what the euro will show. Can we completely ignore this upcoming weekend??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 That time has shown a storm on various ens members for a few days. Storminess originating in the southern plains has too. Doesn't look cold enough for snow. Yet. Curious as to what the euro will show. Can we completely ignore this upcoming weekend??? . I've been looking at this weekend with one eye raised too. Thought I was the only one. It's likely nothing. Week after is probably where it's at. I swear, if there's a storm, I'm bailing on my family in SC for Thanksgiving. This sickness is awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Euro is definitely advertising potential at the end of the run. I don't know what to think about next weekend. Glad I don't have to make a forecast. I could reasonably believe high temps of anywhere from 35-65F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Euro is definitely advertising potential at the end of the run. I don't know what to think about next weekend. Glad I don't have to make a forecast. I could reasonably believe high temps of anywhere from 35-65F. idk, as it stands right now, it looks like a front comes through over the weekend with "maybe" some light snow or flurries at the end by the time day 10 rolls around, it looks cold and dry looking at the day 10 map and the freebie day 10 map http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2013111712!!/ http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/two_metre_temperature_and_30m_winds!240!North%20America!t2m!pop!od!oper!w_t2m30mw!2013111712!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 I am slightly intrigued by tonight... granted there will be little to nil CAPE... but could be some decent gusts from the showers/storms (?) after midnight from the QLCS or what remains of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Borrowed from main svr thread... its the HRRR 3km composite future radar Looks like 1-3 am for LWX CWA hrrr_2013111719_ref_ne.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 So pity watch after midnight with warnings for drizzle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 So pity watch after midnight with warnings for drizzle? Prob pity meso with pity warnings out by Apps and gusty showers here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 I'll try to stay awake. This may be the most severe we see here in the last six months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Currently waiting for my gusty rain showers. The suspense is killing me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Ah yes, the svr warning out in the Apps has been issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 and pity watch BR and west till 4am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Rattley-Windows warning in effect Apps and Shanandoah Valley. Keep in mind there is also a Bump-in-the-night watch for the entire region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 1st "legit computer generated" snow storm for us of the winter on 324 hr GFS tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 1st "legit computer generated" snow storm for us of the winter on 324 hr GFS tonight Indices are ripe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Frostburg MD reported wind gust to 52 mph at 1144pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Gusing here good now, 15-20 from the S. Creepy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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