yoda Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Looks like maybe one more warm up before the cold takes over. 12Z GFS unleashes the polar bears. 12Z CMC looked interesting at 240 for a coastal. Of rain Even if this were to be exact -- http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PT&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PT&hh2=228&fixhh=1&hh=240 A 1030 H won't do much to lock in cold air and we would switch over. Its nice to see a coastal show-up anyway though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Of rain Even if this were to be exact -- http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PT&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PT&hh2=228&fixhh=1&hh=240 A 1030 H won't do much to lock in cold air and we would switch over. Its nice to see a coastal show-up anyway though Cold air is starting to push in. Still pretty close. Also at 240 so who cares exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Cold air is starting to push in. Still pretty close. Also at 240 so who cares exactly. Watch it happen, I got a flight 24 hrs later than that image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Finally some rain falling here! Hope it helps with the crews fighting the fires burning in counties around me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Light rain in Gainesville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Cold/dry, warm/wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 0.44". Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 0.25. better than nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 0.5" on the dot. Quite surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO IN/OH SUNDAYEVENING. A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR NRN MIWITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE MID ATLANTICWILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AS A STRONG 50-60KT LLJ APPROACHES THEREGION. BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY THE LLJ MAX WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD.STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING PLACE FROM THE GULF COASTAND PWAT VALUES SHOULD INCREASE TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS NEAR2SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID NOV. SFC DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTOTHE MID 50S EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE THEMAIN SOURCE OF LIFT IN THE WARM SECTOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLYMON MORNING AND SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE FROM SW TO NE AHEAD OF THESFC COLD FRONT. LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WARMNOSE OF AIR AS PART OF THE LLJ WILL BE PRESENT ALOFT AND RESULT INA STABLE LAYER. 50-60KT WINDS WILL BE RIGHT ABOVE THIS STABLELAYER AND SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO MIX THESE WINDSDOWN. FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF A FEW 100J/KG OF CAPE WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF DOWNDRAFTS ANDTHEREFORE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 The timing (as usual?) is pretty wretched. The NAM barely gives us any showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 thought we might clear.. maybe not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 clouds are back building!!!! good sign for the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 clouds are back building!!!! good sign for the winter i see a pivot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 i see a pivot Deform? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 GFS sort of interesting end of next week. See something of a damming sig there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Deform? Is the pivot associated with the negative tilt forcasted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 GFS sort of interesting end of next week. See something of a damming sig there I'm more interested in the period after next weekend. It looks to be the earliest that a favorable w ridge moves in. Potential (albeit slim) for some sort of clipperish vort or tail on the front after the bigger storm in front rains on us. Euro ens still likes a western ridge in the same general time frame. If nothing else, its a general pattern worth keeping an eye on even if the calendar say "lolz at bob chill" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 CPC d11+ has a couple fun analogs and has a nice look. 12/3/02 stands out in my mind...hahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 new Day 2 from SPC moves SLGT risk near BR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 GFS sort of interesting end of next week. See something of a damming sig there Yeah, a month down the road and that probably would raise an eyebrow. Snow the day before Thanksgiving? Flurries? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 What's that on Day 8 on the Euro? Oh...just a nearly 1050mb arctic high coming down into the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Damn you easterly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Euro tells GFS to go take a seat. Warm air not coming. Serious cold after 168 and interesting little gulf set up. Around Thanksgiving is defiantly a time to watch for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 What's that on Day 8 on the Euro? Oh...just a nearly 1050mb arctic high coming down into the Plains. Something's going to happen here. Know why? I'll be in SC Thanksgiving week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 What's that on Day 8 on the Euro? Oh...just a nearly 1050mb arctic high coming down into the Plains. Big fat -25C contour in eastern ND and northern MN. That is solid cold for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Something's going to happen here. Know why? I'll be in SC Thanksgiving week. That may be a good thing. Snow is breaking out over Alabama by 240. It's cold> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Euro tells GFS to go take a seat. Warm air not coming. Serious cold after 168 and interesting little gulf set up. Around Thanksgiving is defiantly a time to watch for. I'm preparing to shake my fist at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Something's going to happen here. Know why? I'll be in SC Thanksgiving week. Make plans for December 5th. K thx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 16, 2013 Author Share Posted November 16, 2013 Looks like a foggy night with the easterly flow. The good news fro cold lovers is both the gfs and euro pop a positive PNA and the euro also has a neg nao in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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