WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 looks like the ensembles now except has the brief re-load warmth the weekend before thanksgiving I think another cutter is certainly possible, probable even and is what I was mentioning in my post last night about a possible snow signal for Thanksgiving week. It brings in the cold air and then a wave develops along the front. This run just has the cold air come in so strongly the that displaced PV that everything is squashed except for some clipper-type vorts sliding around the PV. I doubt the cold air ends up being this strong, but it's fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Day before thanksgiving clipper? White Thanksgiving? GFS Op now has highs in the low to mid 30s for Thanksgiving... That kills Leesburg's prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 12z GFS ENS mean 45 for Thanksgiving...also doesn't have the same degree of warm spike the weekend before....of course this makes sense as the extremes get washed out...OP more volatile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 12z GEFS definitely do not leave the Op on an island when it comes to a very amplified and potentially very cold period for the last 7 days of the month. More than a few drop the PV or a piece of the PV way far south toward the Lakes/New England/Ontario/Quebec somewhere in that time frame. Most also show big phase shift in the AO and NAO with some looking like seriously negative AO/NAO combinations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Euro at the end of the run has something brewing in the gulf with a strong high building to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Euro at the end of the run has something brewing in the gulf with a strong high building to the north. Yup...shows the pattern I've been describing quite well actually. But the cold air looks a bit lacking, verbatim. A signal is there around that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Yup...shows the pattern I've been describing quite well actually. But the cold air looks a bit lacking, verbatim. A signal is there around that period. 12z GGEM has potential too for that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Yup...shows the pattern I've been describing quite well actually. But the cold air looks a bit lacking, verbatim. A signal is there around that period. Heh, w/ a closed h5 low over texas, developing surface low in the gulf.....and a 1040+hp in se Canada.... Total eye candy that will be gone in 12 hours but still. The h5 config to our north wouldn't make it easy for a cut. Just saying.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Heh, w/ a closed h5 low over texas, developing surface low in the gulf.....and a 1040+hp in se Canada.... Total eye candy that will be gone in 12 hours but still. The h5 config to our north wouldn't make it easy for a cut. Just saying.. i love the weatherbell euro maps....so much to digest..so little snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Heh, w/ a closed h5 low over texas, developing surface low in the gulf.....and a 1040+hp in se Canada.... Total eye candy that will be gone in 12 hours but still. The h5 config to our north wouldn't make it easy for a cut. Just saying.. Would you say it's...meteorologically impossible? Hmmmm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 i love the weatherbell euro maps....so much to digest..so little snow 16 day control run snow maps are the way to go. If they don't show anything then we know we're fooked. ETA: tx panhandle and central ok snow weenies are going nuts right now. All 3 of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Yeehaa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 16 day control run snow maps are the way to go. If they don't show anything then we know we're fooked. ETA: tx panhandle and central ok snow weenies are going nuts right now. All 3 of them. The interface is horrible thought. Really disorganized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 The interface is horrible thought. Really disorganized. Yea, I agree. I'm still not used to it. The top nav on the main page reminds me of the first site I visited in the 90's. Then trying to remember which "group" certain maps are in.... I'm creating bookmarks for the important ones so i don't have to remember a maze of clicks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Euro ensembles are pretty darn cold for the week of T-day...going beyond Ginx's graph. They look very good. Per orh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Euro ensembles are pretty darn cold for the week of T-day...going beyond Ginx's graph. They look very good. Per orh much better than the OP....I didn't think the euro run was very good.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 much better than the OP....I didn't think the euro run was very good.... agree....the euro OP run seemed mild. Even 10 day with the Gulf storm developing and the High in Canada, it wasnt that cold and that storm looked destined to cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 GFS op looking like the euro op and ens now. Will prob flip back to wc trough / ridge east @ 18z. Good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Good call. yeah...it is a pretty hilarious run...of course there is no skill out in that range so it doesnt really matter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 yeah...it is a pretty hilarious run...of course there is no skill out in that range so it doesnt really matter... Past 120 I stop looking at any storm threats and past 180 I really don't give a crap with it shows for anything. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 yeah...it is a pretty hilarious run...of course there is no skill out in that range so it doesnt really matter... It possible it ends up shaking out like that though. It's not just the gfs op. Some ens members show it and the euro has had some flashes as well. Models typically jump the gun breaking down things like a massive +AO and persistent -pna. Going from where we are now to a magical -ao/-nao and w coast ridge inside of 2 weeks time is expecting a lot. Not saying it can't or won't happen but past history say patience is probably a better bet than eagerness. Not saying you are eager or anything. Just making a general point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 EVENTUALLY...THOUGH...ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS BECOMING THE MOST PROMINENT SEVERE THREAT. IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD PROGRESS INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT THIS IS STILL TOO UNCERTAIN TO DELINEATE A REGIONAL SEVERE RISK AREA EAST OF THAT CURRENTLY DEPICTED. THEREAFTER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD APPEARS LOW. SPC mentions us for Sunday night into Monday for a squall line. Minimally exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Yeah... 12am temps BWI 33 IAD 31 DCA 41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 models still showing a decent look the week of Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 After the very wet late spring and summer, it has turned dry, dry, dry here in last 2 months. 2.03 since 10-1 and 1.27 of that fell in 2 days on 10-7 and 10-8. Those SW winds doing a number on high elevations this am, was 23 here at house when I got up at 6 am, 36 up at the airport at 3700 foot. Up to 34 here now at 9 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Complete mystery why my low was 36 and IAD's was 25. Oh, wait... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Complete mystery why my low was 36 and IAD's was 25. Oh, wait... iad sounding.gif BWI got down to 27....that was a shock we weren't supposed to get that low, low or mid 30's per late afternoon forecast dry air ftw look at those dp's yesterday....mid winter form http://www.nws.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KBWI.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 BWI got down to 27....that was a shock we weren't supposed to get that low, low or mid 30's per late afternoon forecast dry air ftw It is tough to forecast that really shallow cold layer. Just from clicking around on wunderground, I found a station at 1600' near Front Royal that had a low of 44.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 I think the next 2 weeks are still pretty uncertain due to the se ridge...GFS has been signaling a warmup next weekend, that might be more than just a re-load...possible 60s or even 70 wouldn't shock me....If I had to guess Thanksgiving right now, I'd prrobably go climo (low 50s) or maybe a notch below..I'll probably do a contest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 I think the next 2 weeks are still pretty uncertain due to the se ridge...GFS has been signaling a warmup next weekend, that might be more than just a re-load...possible 60s or even 70 wouldn't shock me....If I had to guess Thanksgiving right now, I'd prrobably go climo (low 50s) or maybe a notch below..I'll probably do a contest Looks like maybe one more warm up before the cold takes over. 12Z GFS unleashes the polar bears. 12Z CMC looked interesting at 240 for a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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