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November 2013 obs and discussion

usedtobe

By usedtobe,
in Mid Atlantic

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
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6z GEFS mean still looks pretty good for the weekend before Turkey Day through the holiday.  Actually tanks the AO and NAO.  Most of the ensemble members have an active looking pattern during that time as well.  

I like your enthusiasm.  

 

Thanksgiving is always the time I like to see winter start to kick in.  I'll take a December January winter anytime over a February March winter.

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

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I like your enthusiasm.  

 

Thanksgiving is always the time I like to see winter start to kick in.  I'll take a December January winter anytime over a February March winter.

As modeled, it's a pretty good looking pattern.  Naturally, at this time of year (and really all times), our friends in New England and the mountains are favored.  But it's certainly looks worthwhile to keep an eye on it for our region.  I think the ideal scenario is a strong storm late next week drags a cold front (with rain) through the region and then runs into the developing -NAO and forms a transient 50/50 type low.  Then a weak wave develops on the tail end of the front and tracks through the SE throwing some overrunning precip out ahead of it.  This isn't a scenario that would give us a huge storm, but a modest 2-4" type event is do-able if the stars align.  Some of the GEFS that show a similar scenario crank up this trailing wave and then it cuts up the Apps or OH Valley.  Hence the reason that we don't want a strong storm.  

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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As modeled, it's a pretty good looking pattern. Naturally, at this time of year (and really all times), our friends in New England and the mountains are favored. But it's certainly looks worthwhile to keep an eye on it for our region. I think the ideal scenario is a strong storm late next week drags a cold front (with rain) through the region and then runs into the developing -NAO and forms a transient 50/50 type low. Then a weak wave develops on the tail end of the front and tracks through the SE throwing some overrunning precip out ahead of it. This isn't a scenario that would give us a huge storm, but a modest 2-4" type event is do-able if the stars align. Some of the GEFS that show a similar scenario crank up this trailing wave and then it cuts up the Apps or OH Valley. Hence the reason that we don't want a strong storm.

Last nights euro op and ens look pretty nice @ d10 as well. Ens paint a nice aleutian ridge, wc ridge, eastern trough, and east based NAO. Coldest temps are centered around AK/western canada but the entire eastern half of the country are below normal with this setup. The op goes a little crazy with the aleutian ridge pushing to the pole and a 588dm ridge just off the CA coast. Very low heights with the vortex just north of the gl's. It's a pretty classic cold in the east sig but it's too far out there to get excited about.

The short story is there is some consistency for some sort of ridge west/ trough east with the global models. Some signs of blocking potential and the flow buckling but my guess would be to remain progressive as things evolve.

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snow.

snow.

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Last nights euro op and ens look pretty nice @ d10 as well. Ens paint a nice aleutian ridge, wc ridge, eastern trough, and east based NAO. Coldest temps are centered around AK/western canada but the entire eastern half of the country are below normal with this setup. The op goes a little crazy with the aleutian ridge pushing to the pole and a 588dm ridge just off the CA coast. Very low heights with the vortex just north of the gl's. It's a pretty classic cold in the east sig but it's too far out there to get excited about.

The short story is there is some consistency for some sort of ridge west/ trough east with the global models. Some signs of blocking potential and the flow buckling but my guess would be to remain progressive as things evolve.

 

the GFS op has been all over the place...it now has us warm at the end of the month...60 for Thanksgiving while the GEFS has us 45....I don't think the timing and extent of the cold is really locked down yet...It is going to get cold but for how long and when?..This past week has been the real deal...after today around -6 for the past 7 days....warm for a few days this weekend and then the ensemble mean puts us in the freezer through the end of the month...if it is right we'd probably end up like last November, but potential for coldest since 1996....GFS now warms us up thanksgiving week,..

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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the GFS op has been all over the place...

 

Yea, it's struggling with the placement and evolution of the canadian vortex and downstream in the west half of the us. Some of the runs dig a trough into the west while heights climb in the east and other runs dig down the the middle of the country and progress east. I'll stick with the euro because it looks better...lol...but either solution is possible. No denying that. 

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wxmeddler

wxmeddler

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This is pretty cool, snippet from LWX AFD this morning:

 

Yeah, I got confused by this last night while forcasting for Concord, NH for WxChallenge. MOS was saying that higher DP's were to advect into the area and when I looked at a surface map, it was dry to the SW. If I had only looked a bit higher at the winds, would I have known that those DP's were advecting from the NW! Strange.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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What was a cut off low pumping up a west ridge is now just a big fat west ridge.  rather see that than a deep v sitting over Nev.

 

It's an interesting scenario for late Nov. Globals are all moving towards an amplified pattern and potential blocking. If this was a couple weeks later I would be more excited but still, it's a pretty classic look for cold in the east with potential for clipper type vorts rotating through. Assuming any of it verifies of course. 

 

I suppose it safe to say that this in one of the looks that *can* give us some Nov snow. Get a good block in place and it's a patter that could have some legs too. Dec 5th now in play...lol

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

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Holy cow the GFS Op is cold at the end of the run.  Although the magnitude of the cold shot next week seems lessened a bit over the last couple days, this run (at least) really keeps it around.  Big ol' 1044 HP up over New England at the end of next week with a classic cold air damming look.  Flow of the ocean a bit aloft with a strong ageostrophic component in the low levels...who likes cloudy and chilly weather!?!  Then one more cutter goes through and suddenly it's time for vodka on ice.  

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snow.

snow.

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Holy cow the GFS Op is cold at the end of the run.  Although the magnitude of the cold shot next week seems lessened a bit over the last couple days, this run (at least) really keeps it around.  Big ol' 1044 HP up over New England at the end of next week with a classic cold air damming look.  Flow of the ocean a bit aloft with a strong ageostrophic component in the low levels...who likes cloudy and chilly weather!?!  Then one more cutter goes through and suddenly it's time for vodka on ice.  

 

looks like the ensembles now except has the brief re-load warmth the weekend before thanksgiving

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