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November 2013 obs and discussion


usedtobe

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Think we ought to keep an eye on the period around the weekend before Thanksgiving.  GEFS ensembles show a transient, but fairly favorable pattern for us setting up. -NAO/-EPO with the AO a little more neutral-ish and some weak ridging near the West Coast. 

 

f252.gif

 

12z GFS also shows just such a scenario that could give us an early snowfall.  A wave develops along a front over the TX/LA region and then rides through the SE and some overrunning precip moves out ahead of the wave.  Verbatim, this rain, but this is just sort of a demonstration of the idea. 

 

f276.gif

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