Weathergun Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2002 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0441 AM CDT FRI NOV 01 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN NY/THE ERN HALF OF PA/WRN NJ/NRN MD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 558... VALID 010941Z - 011115Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 558 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...A FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS...ALONG WITH ATTENDANT/LOCAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. A DOWNSTREAM WW SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF PA AND VICINITY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW A NARROW/LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE MARCHING EWD ACROSS WRN NY/CENTRAL PA AND SWD ACROSS MD/ERN WV. WHILE NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THE LINE...LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS CONTINUE...AS VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY MANIFEST AT THE SURFACE COINCIDENT WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE. DESPITE A LACK OF INSTABILITY...EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN LINEARLY ORGANIZED AS IT CONTINUES SHIFTING EWD/ENEWD AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. AS THE STORMS GRADUALLY SHIFT E OF THE EXISTING WW WITH TIME...NEW WW ISSUANCE IS ANTICIPATED. ..GOSS/MEAD.. 11/01/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Would think this weakens toward the coast its out running the energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 We'll see if the 4km is correct in weakening the line as it heads east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 We'll see if the 4km is correct in weakening the line as it heads east. rad9.gif Looks to be weakening already. Looks a little better up towards the poconos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Looks to be weakening already. Looks a little better up towards the poconos It looks like the line is moving out of the upper jet exit region so it's losing some support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 The 8z HRRR has the line solid into NW NJ and Hudson Valley : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 The 8z HRRR has the line solid into NW NJ and Hudson Valley : Pretty good agreement with the 4km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Also looks like less than .25 of rain all around...not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Pretty good agreement with the 4km. 1ref_t3sfc_f07.png Not exactly. The 4km NAM has it falling apart before hitting NJ. The line is running into stronger LLJ further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Not exactly. The 4km NAM has it falling apart before hitting NJ. The line is running into stronger LLJ further east. Same difference with it weakening further east . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Same difference with it weakening further east . The line is growing again in PA. The end result might be same for NYC. But the WRF likes to weaken these lines too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 it didn't weaken yet, it was just in between radar sites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 The line is growing again in PA. The end result might be same for NYC. But the WRF likes to weaken these lines too quickly. They both agree that it looses the upper jet support by the time it gets to NYC and Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 They both agree that it looses the upper jet support by the time it gets to NYC and Long Island. 9z HRRR now has a solid low-topped line into LI. I'm not certain it's correct. But it's running better LLJ support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 9z HRRR now has a solid low-topped line into LI. I'm not certain it's correct. But it's running better LLJ support. I just saw that. That's the first run of any of the earlier guidance to keep this together through our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Gusting to 35mph here well out ahead of the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Wind report out of NE PA. NWUS51 KPHI 011243LSRPHIPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ843 AM EDT FRI NOV 01 2013..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..0836 AM TSTM WND DMG STRAUSSTOWN 40.49N 76.18W11/01/2013 BERKS PA EMERGENCY MNGRNUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Line still looks strong right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 47mph gust at KABE 53mph gust at KXLL (in Allentown Queen City Airport) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 1, 2013 Author Share Posted November 1, 2013 Line looks good for my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 any reports from NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 any reports from NJ Just NE PA so far... RELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 908 AM EDT FRI NOV 01 2013 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0745 AM TSTM WND DMG JIM THORPE 40.87N 75.74W 11/01/2013 CARBON PA COUNTY OFFICIAL NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND POWER LINES ACROSS THE COUNTY. 0810 AM TSTM WND DMG BARTONSVILLE 41.01N 75.28W 11/01/2013 MONROE PA EMERGENCY MNGR TRRES AND POWER LIENS DOWN. 0815 AM TSTM WND DMG MERTZTOWN 40.51N 75.67W 11/01/2013 BERKS PA PUBLIC TREES DOWN 0820 AM TSTM WND DMG FOGELSVILLE 40.58N 75.63W 11/01/2013 LEHIGH PA EMERGENCY MNGR 3 TELEPHONE POLES DOWN IN FOGELSVILLE AND NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES ACROSS LEHIGH COUNTY 0835 AM TSTM WND DMG NAZARETH 40.74N 75.31W 11/01/2013 NORTHAMPTON PA COUNTY OFFICIAL TREES AND WIRES DOWN THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY. 0836 AM TSTM WND DMG STRAUSSTOWN 40.49N 76.18W 11/01/2013 BERKS PA EMERGENCY MNGR NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY 0859 AM TSTM WND DMG GREEN LANE 40.34N 75.47W 11/01/2013 MONTGOMERY PA TRAINED SPOTTER NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN MONTGOMERY COUNTY AND GREEN LANE && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 1, 2013 Author Share Posted November 1, 2013 Looks like the 00z SPC WRF had the best handle so far. Keeps the northern end strong and fizzles out the southern portion as it crosses into NJ. Hoping to get slammed here shortly in Ramsey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 59mph gust at KMGJ PWS also reported 51mph gust in Lafeyette,NJ: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=AU743 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 1, 2013 Author Share Posted November 1, 2013 We briefly gusted to 40MPH. Heavy wind swept rain ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 We briefly gusted to 40MPH. Heavy wind swept rain ongoing. Same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 1, 2013 Author Share Posted November 1, 2013 Lasted maybe 5 minutes, just light rain and breezy conditions now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Mt Holly has a very different and more bullish warning style than Upton, it's funny to look at the warning map and see the transition...it's as if they're looking at different weather events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Mt Holly has a very different and more bullish warning style than Upton, it's funny to look at the warning map and see the transition...it's as if they're looking at different weather events. What I didn't understand is we already have a wind advisory with wording of gusts up to 60 miles per hour.. so why were warnings even issued? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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