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Wind/Rain Event 11/1


IsentropicLift

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The 18z NAM is coming in with very windy conditions possible on Friday. In fact, it shows widespread surface winds of 35-40MPH + with spots gusting to 50 well inland. The coast could gust to 60MPH+

 

The 12z Euro also showed the potential for high winds, especially just above the surface.

 

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Yes, this wind event is something to monitor. The 00Z GFS has the coastal low tracking closer to coast and 40/70 benchmark. If this trend continues and with other models joining suit the chance of rain along with the advisory winds for Long Island and New York City will be introduced on Friday night into Saturday.

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Yes, this wind event is something to monitor. The 00Z GFS has the coastal low tracking closer to coast and 40/70 benchmark. If this trend continues and with other models joining suit the chance of rain along with the advisory winds for Long Island and New York City will be introduced on Friday night into Saturday.

 

Wow. Not good for Coastal areas that don't have enough sand dunes. 

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OKX update with HWW for E LI and SE CT and disco

 

 

CTZ007-008-011-012-NYZ078>081-312100-
/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.A.0002.131101T0900Z-131101T1900Z/
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
423 AM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARDS...STRONG WINDS.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY DOWN TREES AND POWER
LINES...RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. THE STRONG WINDS
MAY ALSO MAKE FOR DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF
58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

MAIN CONCERN OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THE GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP ACROSS THE
AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE AXIS OF THE STRONGEST
925-850MB WINDS EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND...THROUGH
CONNECTICUT ON UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. 00Z MODELS HAVE LLJ VALUES
REACHING AROUND 70 KTS...WHICH...IF MIXED ENOUGH...COULD PRODUCE
GUSTS OF BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH DOWN AT THE SURFACE. THIS REMAINS
THE QUESTION IF THE MIXING DOES OCCUR...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT
IT MIGHT TAKE SOME OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP TO MAKE IT HAPPEN.
HOWEVER...WITH THE MODELS BEING QUITE CONSISTENT IN THE STRENGTH OF
THE WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR
AREAS OF SE CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND FOR FRIDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE WATCH MAY END UP BEING CONVERTED INTO AN ADVISORY
WITH MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL SUSTAINED
AND GUSTS BEING MET. ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE MET ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA AS WELL...AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
HWO WITH THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING IN THE THIRD
PERIOD.

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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

 

...NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND...
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRONG
JET STREAK /90-100 KT AT 500 MB/...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LIMITED IN THE
LIKELIHOOD/SPATIALITY OF LIGHTNING-PRODUCING CONVECTION FRIDAY
NEAR/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND A RELATIVELY MOIST
AIRMASS...CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS ROOTED IN VERY WEAK NEAR-SURFACE
BUOYANCY MAY ATTAIN SUFFICIENT DEPTHS TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING. GIVEN
THE STRONG MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...ACCENTUATED
BY 50-75 KT WINDS BETWEEN 1-2 KM...CONVECTIVELY AIDED WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL COULD EXIST DURING THE DAY. SUCH A WIND DAMAGE RISK COULD
OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAST-MOVING/LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE
AS IT POTENTIALLY RACES NORTHEASTWARD.

 

So wind advisory conditions are a given with such a strong LLJ and HWW would be conditional

on the development of low topped convection. Long Island will see wind gusts to 45-50 mph at

a minimum with the potential to go higher in any heavier bands of rain.

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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

How about the city though?

...NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND...

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRONG

JET STREAK /90-100 KT AT 500 MB/...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LIMITED IN THE

LIKELIHOOD/SPATIALITY OF LIGHTNING-PRODUCING CONVECTION FRIDAY

NEAR/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY GIVEN

STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND A RELATIVELY MOIST

AIRMASS...CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS ROOTED IN VERY WEAK NEAR-SURFACE

BUOYANCY MAY ATTAIN SUFFICIENT DEPTHS TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING. GIVEN

THE STRONG MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...ACCENTUATED

BY 50-75 KT WINDS BETWEEN 1-2 KM...CONVECTIVELY AIDED WIND DAMAGE

POTENTIAL COULD EXIST DURING THE DAY. SUCH A WIND DAMAGE RISK COULD

OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAST-MOVING/LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE

AS IT POTENTIALLY RACES NORTHEASTWARD.

So wind advisory conditions are a given with such a strong LLJ and HWW would be conditional

on the development of low topped convection. Long Island will see wind gusts to 45-50 mph at

a minimum with the potential to go higher in any heavier bands of rain.

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Really surprised at the lack of wind advisories over western sections. The 12z 4k NAM came in lock step, if not stronger with the surface winds. 4k NAM simulated radar also shows strong convection and heavy rain over the area Friday night.

Upton's AFD mentions the possibility of advisories in the later package.

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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

How about the city though?

...NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND...

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRONG

JET STREAK /90-100 KT AT 500 MB/...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LIMITED IN THE

LIKELIHOOD/SPATIALITY OF LIGHTNING-PRODUCING CONVECTION FRIDAY

NEAR/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY GIVEN

STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND A RELATIVELY MOIST

AIRMASS...CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS ROOTED IN VERY WEAK NEAR-SURFACE

BUOYANCY MAY ATTAIN SUFFICIENT DEPTHS TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING. GIVEN

THE STRONG MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...ACCENTUATED

BY 50-75 KT WINDS BETWEEN 1-2 KM...CONVECTIVELY AIDED WIND DAMAGE

POTENTIAL COULD EXIST DURING THE DAY. SUCH A WIND DAMAGE RISK COULD

OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAST-MOVING/LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE

AS IT POTENTIALLY RACES NORTHEASTWARD.

So wind advisory conditions are a given with such a strong LLJ and HWW would be conditional

on the development of low topped convection. Long Island will see wind gusts to 45-50 mph at

a minimum with the potential to go higher in any heavier bands of rain.

 

 

JFK should be gusting 40-50 mph around 12z-15z with the tight gradient and 50 mph winds just above the surface.

 

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Guest Imperator

12z GFS shows an area of 70kts+ at 925mb valid 09z-15z Saturday. Coincides with the strongest convection.

 

I think you meant Friday...

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Guest Imperator

No, 09z Saturday is Friday night overnight into Saturday.

 

 

..and the 12z GFS Wind Profiles @ 850mb between 9z and 12z Saturday Morning dont show winds higher than 35kts. 925 much less and the surface light winds. Check Again...and no precep (even a trace) after 0z Sat. I think you were looking at maps for 9-15z tomorrow, when the 70kt jet is around the area.

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Guest Imperator

Other story here is that the models are coming in with lesser QPF for tomorrow, and we are in a D1 drought. Not good.

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Other story here is that the models are coming in with lesser QPF for tomorrow, and we are in a D1 drought. Not good.

Lets face it. The models are pretty useless when it comes to predicting QPF anyway. 2 weeks ago the NAM had over 1" of rain that day and we got a couple sprinkles and the GFS is almost always overdone right up until the event and then it slashes amounts in half.

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Have a hunch this will be a non-event the way our weather has been the past few months.  Every time the models have some potential the day comes for the modelled event and it fizzles for the most part.  We shall see.

Which is pretty pathetic considering the rain stretches from Canada to Texas. Seems like it can't miss us completely. Meanwhile I just had my heaviest rain in weeks and even that totaled only a couple hundredths.

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Have a hunch this will be a non-event the way our weather has been the past few months.  Every time the models have some potential the day comes for the modelled event and it fizzles for the most part.  We shall see.

 

Most spots around here would probably be lucky if we can pick up .25 or so with the heaviest rains to our west over PA. 

 

 

 

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Lets face it. The models are pretty useless when it comes to predicting QPF anyway. 2 weeks ago the NAM had over 1" of rain that day and we got a couple sprinkles and the GFS is almost always overdone right up until the event and then it slashes amounts in half.

The energy and lift will be way west and north of us, so little or no rain. "Rinse" and repeat.

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Lets face it. The models are pretty useless when it comes to predicting QPF anyway. 2 weeks ago the NAM had over 1" of rain that day and we got a couple sprinkles and the GFS is almost always overdone right up until the event and then it slashes amounts in half.

Agreed. People should be using (or learning) basic meteorological interpretation skills instead of focusing on verbatim model outputs.

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NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-
WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-
WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
731 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT FRIDAY.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEASTERN
NEW JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND NEW YORK CITY.

* HAZARDS...STRONG...TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS.

* WINDS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

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