IsentropicLift Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 The 18z NAM is coming in with very windy conditions possible on Friday. In fact, it shows widespread surface winds of 35-40MPH + with spots gusting to 50 well inland. The coast could gust to 60MPH+ The 12z Euro also showed the potential for high winds, especially just above the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 It should be fairly easy for Long Island to gust from 40-50 mph with 50 mph down to 975 mb. We would probably need a low topped squall to bring down stronger winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Yes, this wind event is something to monitor. The 00Z GFS has the coastal low tracking closer to coast and 40/70 benchmark. If this trend continues and with other models joining suit the chance of rain along with the advisory winds for Long Island and New York City will be introduced on Friday night into Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Yes, this wind event is something to monitor. The 00Z GFS has the coastal low tracking closer to coast and 40/70 benchmark. If this trend continues and with other models joining suit the chance of rain along with the advisory winds for Long Island and New York City will be introduced on Friday night into Saturday. Wow. Not good for Coastal areas that don't have enough sand dunes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 OKX update with HWW for E LI and SE CT and disco CTZ007-008-011-012-NYZ078>081-312100-/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.A.0002.131101T0900Z-131101T1900Z/NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-423 AM EDT THU OCT 31 2013...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAYAFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A HIGH WINDWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAYAFTERNOON.* LOCATIONS...SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.* HAZARDS...STRONG WINDS.* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...WITHPOSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.* TIMING...WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDSEXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.* IMPACTS...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY DOWN TREES AND POWERLINES...RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. THE STRONG WINDSMAY ALSO MAKE FOR DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUSHIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATESTFORECASTS.&&MAIN CONCERN OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THE GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS OVERTHE ENTIRE AREA. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP ACROSS THEAREA BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE AXIS OF THE STRONGEST925-850MB WINDS EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND...THROUGHCONNECTICUT ON UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. 00Z MODELS HAVE LLJ VALUESREACHING AROUND 70 KTS...WHICH...IF MIXED ENOUGH...COULD PRODUCEGUSTS OF BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH DOWN AT THE SURFACE. THIS REMAINSTHE QUESTION IF THE MIXING DOES OCCUR...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THATIT MIGHT TAKE SOME OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP TO MAKE IT HAPPEN.HOWEVER...WITH THE MODELS BEING QUITE CONSISTENT IN THE STRENGTH OFTHE WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FORAREAS OF SE CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND FOR FRIDAY MORNING ANDAFTERNOON. THE WATCH MAY END UP BEING CONVERTED INTO AN ADVISORYWITH MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL SUSTAINEDAND GUSTS BEING MET. ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE MET ACROSS THEREST OF THE AREA AS WELL...AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THEHWO WITH THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING IN THE THIRDPERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html ...NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRONGJET STREAK /90-100 KT AT 500 MB/...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LIMITED IN THELIKELIHOOD/SPATIALITY OF LIGHTNING-PRODUCING CONVECTION FRIDAYNEAR/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY GIVENSTRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND A RELATIVELY MOISTAIRMASS...CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS ROOTED IN VERY WEAK NEAR-SURFACEBUOYANCY MAY ATTAIN SUFFICIENT DEPTHS TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING. GIVENTHE STRONG MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...ACCENTUATEDBY 50-75 KT WINDS BETWEEN 1-2 KM...CONVECTIVELY AIDED WIND DAMAGEPOTENTIAL COULD EXIST DURING THE DAY. SUCH A WIND DAMAGE RISK COULDOCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAST-MOVING/LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINEAS IT POTENTIALLY RACES NORTHEASTWARD. So wind advisory conditions are a given with such a strong LLJ and HWW would be conditional on the development of low topped convection. Long Island will see wind gusts to 45-50 mph at a minimum with the potential to go higher in any heavier bands of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html How about the city though? ...NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND... IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRONG JET STREAK /90-100 KT AT 500 MB/...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LIMITED IN THE LIKELIHOOD/SPATIALITY OF LIGHTNING-PRODUCING CONVECTION FRIDAY NEAR/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY GIVEN STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS...CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS ROOTED IN VERY WEAK NEAR-SURFACE BUOYANCY MAY ATTAIN SUFFICIENT DEPTHS TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING. GIVEN THE STRONG MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...ACCENTUATED BY 50-75 KT WINDS BETWEEN 1-2 KM...CONVECTIVELY AIDED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL COULD EXIST DURING THE DAY. SUCH A WIND DAMAGE RISK COULD OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAST-MOVING/LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT POTENTIALLY RACES NORTHEASTWARD. So wind advisory conditions are a given with such a strong LLJ and HWW would be conditional on the development of low topped convection. Long Island will see wind gusts to 45-50 mph at a minimum with the potential to go higher in any heavier bands of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 31, 2013 Author Share Posted October 31, 2013 Really surprised at the lack of wind advisories over western sections. The 12z 4k NAM came in lock step, if not stronger with the surface winds. 4k NAM simulated radar also shows strong convection and heavy rain over the area Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Really surprised at the lack of wind advisories over western sections. The 12z 4k NAM came in lock step, if not stronger with the surface winds. 4k NAM simulated radar also shows strong convection and heavy rain over the area Friday night. Upton's AFD mentions the possibility of advisories in the later package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 31, 2013 Author Share Posted October 31, 2013 Upton's AFD mentions the possibility of advisories in the later package. What about Mt. Holly? My point and click mentioning only 18-24MPH. Model support is for 35MPH+ easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 31, 2013 Author Share Posted October 31, 2013 12z GFS shows an area of 70kts+ at 925mb valid 09z-15z Saturday. Coincides with the strongest convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 i'm not impressed. temp profiles stink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 31, 2013 Author Share Posted October 31, 2013 i'm not impressed. temp profiles stink What does that have to do with winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 What does that have to do with winds? Inversion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html How about the city though? ...NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND... IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRONG JET STREAK /90-100 KT AT 500 MB/...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LIMITED IN THE LIKELIHOOD/SPATIALITY OF LIGHTNING-PRODUCING CONVECTION FRIDAY NEAR/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY GIVEN STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS...CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS ROOTED IN VERY WEAK NEAR-SURFACE BUOYANCY MAY ATTAIN SUFFICIENT DEPTHS TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING. GIVEN THE STRONG MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...ACCENTUATED BY 50-75 KT WINDS BETWEEN 1-2 KM...CONVECTIVELY AIDED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL COULD EXIST DURING THE DAY. SUCH A WIND DAMAGE RISK COULD OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAST-MOVING/LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT POTENTIALLY RACES NORTHEASTWARD. So wind advisory conditions are a given with such a strong LLJ and HWW would be conditional on the development of low topped convection. Long Island will see wind gusts to 45-50 mph at a minimum with the potential to go higher in any heavier bands of rain. JFK should be gusting 40-50 mph around 12z-15z with the tight gradient and 50 mph winds just above the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 12z GFS shows an area of 70kts+ at 925mb valid 09z-15z Saturday. Coincides with the strongest convection. I think you meant Friday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 31, 2013 Author Share Posted October 31, 2013 I think you meant Friday... No, 09z Saturday is Friday night overnight into Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 No, 09z Saturday is Friday night overnight into Saturday. ..and the 12z GFS Wind Profiles @ 850mb between 9z and 12z Saturday Morning dont show winds higher than 35kts. 925 much less and the surface light winds. Check Again...and no precep (even a trace) after 0z Sat. I think you were looking at maps for 9-15z tomorrow, when the 70kt jet is around the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Other story here is that the models are coming in with lesser QPF for tomorrow, and we are in a D1 drought. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Other story here is that the models are coming in with lesser QPF for tomorrow, and we are in a D1 drought. Not good. Lets face it. The models are pretty useless when it comes to predicting QPF anyway. 2 weeks ago the NAM had over 1" of rain that day and we got a couple sprinkles and the GFS is almost always overdone right up until the event and then it slashes amounts in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Have a hunch this will be a non-event the way our weather has been the past few months. Every time the models have some potential the day comes for the modelled event and it fizzles for the most part. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Have a hunch this will be a non-event the way our weather has been the past few months. Every time the models have some potential the day comes for the modelled event and it fizzles for the most part. We shall see. Which is pretty pathetic considering the rain stretches from Canada to Texas. Seems like it can't miss us completely. Meanwhile I just had my heaviest rain in weeks and even that totaled only a couple hundredths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Have a hunch this will be a non-event the way our weather has been the past few months. Every time the models have some potential the day comes for the modelled event and it fizzles for the most part. We shall see. Most spots around here would probably be lucky if we can pick up .25 or so with the heaviest rains to our west over PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 31, 2013 Author Share Posted October 31, 2013 Looks like the strongest winds are from about 10z to 18z Friday, especially inland. They hold on a bit longer at the immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Lets face it. The models are pretty useless when it comes to predicting QPF anyway. 2 weeks ago the NAM had over 1" of rain that day and we got a couple sprinkles and the GFS is almost always overdone right up until the event and then it slashes amounts in half. The energy and lift will be way west and north of us, so little or no rain. "Rinse" and repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Lets face it. The models are pretty useless when it comes to predicting QPF anyway. 2 weeks ago the NAM had over 1" of rain that day and we got a couple sprinkles and the GFS is almost always overdone right up until the event and then it slashes amounts in half. Agreed. People should be using (or learning) basic meteorological interpretation skills instead of focusing on verbatim model outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 The RAP has some really strong winds at 925mb. But I agree with Forky that the temp profiles are not impressive. This should be a gusty wind event that is relatively limited. Maybe more potential on the east end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-731 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINDADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT FRIDAY.* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEASTERNNEW JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND NEW YORK CITY.* HAZARDS...STRONG...TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS.* WINDS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.* TIMING...WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDSEXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 1, 2013 Author Share Posted November 1, 2013 Already quite breezy outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Low-topped squall line Central PA, curren't producing wind gusts over 50mph. Should be here later this morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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