hm8 Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Non-severe OBS/Discussion Gonna be some pretty quick deepening of this thing....GFS showing 8-10mb drops in 6hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Be sweet if this were snow liquid equiv.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 System looks moderately exciting for YYZ and area. GFS indicates the peak winds will occur around 2am Friday morning, NAM a little bit slower indicating the morning rush hour will be gusty. Both models indicating surface winds in the 25-35km/h range, with potential for gusts in the 80-90km/h range, maybe even a few reports of 100km/h. WRF slightly more aggressive on the surface winds, up to 40km/h. The model also shows a broad area of 55-65kt winds at 900mb over southern Ontario so if those winds can mix down I wouldn't be surprised to see wind warnings raised by Environment Canada. Rainfall I suspect will be in the range of 20-30mm. If some convective precip can form behind the warm front Thursday daytime we may come in more towards the higher end of that range but instability will be limited. Temperature of above 15C will certainly be achievable Thursday due to strong WAA during the daytime as the system deepens. Most models including the ECMWF now agree the system will be at or below 980mb with the GFS the most aggressive at 973mb Friday morning. System will be deepening as the center crosses the MI/ON border over Lake Huron on Thursday night. Tight : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 IND INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 70+KTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS...TRANSPORTING DEEP GULF MOISTURE RAPIDLY NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING WINDS APPROACHING 50KTS AT JUST ABOUT 2KFT. PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEARLY 250% OF NORMAL IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES AT THEIR MAX. INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...WITH A 130-140KT UPPER JETLET POISED TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY EVENING. ALL OF THESE FEATURES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR A SOLID ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WILL INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ALSO POSES THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING WINDS APPROACHING 50KTS AS LOW AS 2KFT OFF THE GROUND BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...WITH 60KTS AT 3KFT BY MID AFTERNOON. MOMENTUM TRANSFER BELOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONE IS SUGGESTIVE OF MAX WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 40MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH POTENTIAL THAT SHOWERS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PULL DOWN STRONGER GUSTS. WILL OBVIOUSLY BE HIGHLIGHTING THE GUSTY WINDS IN THE HWO...BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A WIND ADVISORY TO EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONSIDERING THE VALUES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Non-severe OBS/Discussion Gonna be some pretty quick deepening of this thing....GFS showing 8-10mb drops in 6hrs. My 6yr old daughter has been bumming about the rain for days. I actually wish the city would delay the night until Saturday, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 System looks moderately exciting for YYZ and area. GFS indicates the peak winds will occur around 2am Friday morning, NAM a little bit slower indicating the morning rush hour will be gusty. Both models indicating surface winds in the 25-35km/h range, with potential for gusts in the 80-90km/h range, maybe even a few reports of 100km/h. WRF slightly more aggressive on the surface winds, up to 40km/h. The model also shows a broad area of 55-65kt winds at 900mb over southern Ontario so if those winds can mix down I wouldn't be surprised to see wind warnings raised by Environment Canada. Rainfall I suspect will be in the range of 20-30mm. If some convective precip can form behind the warm front Thursday daytime we may come in more towards the higher end of that range but instability will be limited. Temperature of above 15C will certainly be achievable Thursday due to strong WAA during the daytime as the system deepens. Most models including the ECMWF now agree the system will be at or below 980mb with the GFS the most aggressive at 973mb Friday morning. System will be deepening as the center crosses the MI/ON border over Lake Huron on Thursday night. Tight : Amazing write up man, I agree! With the rising instability given the placement of the trough we may see some weak non severe tstorms across southern ontario. The low level cooling working in from the stratosphere and strong WAA in place acorss the lower levels of the troposphere should create nice wind shear and may allow the tstorms to dump heavier rains locally so I wouldnt be surprised if some regions saw 2" or 50mm+. Winds should be vicious, going to be a breezy thursday and Friday, horrible for the kids on halloween. Overall I expect temperatues around 16-18C across the SW and around 14-17C in the GTA. Weekend looks cool overall before temperatures rebound somewhat next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 This probably could have all stayed in one thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 This probably could have all stayed in one thread. Maybe Hoosier will merge for us; I can see both general discussion and svr impacting our subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 One thread probably would've been fine but I'm going to leave it as is. If the severe wx event overperforms and the thread gets busy then it will keep some of the non-severe/general storm posts out of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Been a dark and gloomy day all day with fog and a heavy overcast. Steady rains moved in a few hours ago. Have a steady, high-end moderate rain falling the last half hour or so, and looks to continue much of the eve. 0.37" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 0.37" of rain here. We might get a bit more tonight, but it's also possible it all veers off to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Visibility down to 1/4 mile, moderate rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Definitely won't have a problem breaking the 1" mark. Up to 0.78" now. More heavy rains with thunder organizing in southern Iowa, and heading this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Pouring down rain and somewhat foggy out. Fog built in ahead of the convection, especially along the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 3" Bullseye over Chicago to Battle Creek area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Nice garden variety t storm here at Elkhart this evening. Nice to see lightning on Oct. 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Doppler underestimating precip amounts from LOT and ILX 2+ inches in some locations over NE IL ground truth but not even 1.5 on the radar OOK IL-LAKE IN- 849 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED AN * URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR... KANKAKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS... LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA... NORTH CENTRAL FORD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHERN IROQUOIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHERN JASPER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA... NORTHERN NEWTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA... PORTER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA... SOUTHEASTERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS... WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 300 AM CDT THURSDAY * AT 845 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED AN AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. TRAINED SPOTTERS AND OBSERVERS HAVE REPORTED 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Have 1.82" since around 6 pm. Had some decent thunder and lightning earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Just crossed the 1" threshold here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 After the rain pushed out the fog really got thick again. About 0.25 mile visibility. Edit: 57° here at 11pm. 0.37" of rain through 11pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 There were a few weak couplets associated with some of the embedded line segments and cells with the activity this evening across the southern half of the LOT CWA. More CAPE and things could have gotten interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 GFS says focus of heaviest over LOT and GRR cwa's. NAM pretty similar. More into IWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 ^ Looks like you guys to the east are in for a lot more rain. The main event is pretty much winding down here. Some recent downpours got us up to 1.17" for the day. Looks like we'll just be getting grazed by some showers tomorrow, with the steady/heavier rains staying off to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Valpo's PWS is showing 1.41" on the day. I'm pretty surprised we've gotten that much so far. The NAM has a stripe of >2" additional rain through NW IN after 06z tonight. A partner and I have an internship forecasting for Porter County schools (usually snow/ice and fog) but I'm starting to wonder if we need to call and warn about flooding. Do farm roads flood easily, or does all the water drain into the ditches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Valpo's PWS is showing 1.41" on the day. I'm pretty surprised we've gotten that much so far. The NAM has a stripe of >2" additional rain through NW IN after 06z tonight. A partner and I have an internship forecasting for Porter County schools (usually snow/ice and fog) but I'm starting to wonder if we need to call and warn about flooding. Do farm roads flood easily, or does all the water drain into the ditches? More than often I see flooding in the city before I see flooding in the countryside. Ditches and unpaved surface definitely help mitigate the runoff volumes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 More than often I see flooding in the city before I see flooding in the countryside. Ditches and unpaved surface definitely help mitigate the runoff volumes. Ok thanks! I'm originally from Philly, and we don't have farm grids like you guys do out here, so I didn't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Half an inch already in the bucket here, looks like plenty more to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 0.88 since the event started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 1.13 in the last 24 hours here at KDTW, with probably still at least another 0.50 to 1.00 still to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 should end up with close to 4" downtown...lush, green, and warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.