clskinsfan Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I know its early but does anyone else have concerns about the temperature profile as depicted on the GFS. Shouldnt the 850's be warmer than depicted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
varicweather Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 This looks to be a slow mover; it has not moved much in over 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Total 60 hrs precip through 192 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 I know its early but does anyone else have concerns about the temperature profile as depicted on the GFS. Shouldnt the 850's be warmer than depicted? With the track the storm takes. no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 That would be historic for DC and environs. Likely not going to happen as depicted. Check out the QPF maps. I really hate being in the bullseye this far out. Congrats Boston. This isn't some 10 day threat though. This would be affecting parts of Va in less than 6 days, as modeled. And there's a good bit of consistency going with it. I gathered from the reading that the Euro hints at a storm as well. Wes seems a bit interested. At least so far, I think we can be optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 It certainly could go somewhere else. The mean pattern is much better than what it's been so this is the first real threat for a snowstorm. The d+8 spits out two snowstorms that ended up having mixing issues but still were big ones. That suggests that the chances for a storm are quite a bit higher than climo. That said, it's wise not to get too excited too early. Coming from you, that's all I need to hear. I'm officially investing in this one. Let's hope the GGEM/Euro show at least the potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 Coming from you, that's all I need to hear. I'm officially investing in this one. Let's hope the GGEM/Euro show at least the potential Yes, while I like and generally agree with what the GFS shows, I will NOT put all my eggs in that basket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Seems to me that the 850 line comes close to RVA, and would certainly be north of folks down in DT land, but here just north and west of town, diabatic cooling could help keep us just below 0* and all snow. Either way, as depicted, it would for quite a Christmas Eve and Christmas day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I'd be flying in from Dallas to DCA in the afternoon of the 25th. If it happens exactly like 12z GFS today, my flight will probably be canceled. Im flying from ORH to Orlando on the morning of the 25th. This storm needs to move up or back 24 hours please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Coming from you, that's all I need to hear. I'm officially investing in this one. Let's hope the GGEM/Euro show at least the potential There still is potential for this to moprh into a miller b type system which could screw us depending on the blocking and the location of the 50 50 low. I do like this set up better than the last one. Of course, the dec 19 one is dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I'm really hoping this storm moves later, but unlikely Looks like I might have to risk driving from Central NY to DC Christmas Day or not go up to NY at all. I do not want this to pan out at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I wish I could buy it but I've just been burned. I hope it snows in SNE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I'm really hoping this storm moves later, but unlikely Looks like I might have to risk driving from Central NY to DC Christmas Day or not go up to NY at all. I do not want this to pan out at all. Too bad.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I wish I could buy it but I've just been burned. I hope it snows in SNE! In strong nina year, such storms are pretty rare or least have been since 1950 so not buying in this early is probably a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 There still is potential for this to moprh into a miller b type system which could screw us depending on the blocking and the location of the 50 50 low. I do like this set up better than the last one. Of course, the dec 19 one is dead. Even if it did morph into a miller b it looks like it would still give us a front end thump before the transfer. A lot of juice moving across the country with this one. Am I even remotely correct? Snow on Xmas would be magic. I have 4 kids and the are used to having a warm or wet xmas. My older kids don't even remember 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 In strong nina year, such storms are pretty rare or least have been since 1950 so not buying in this early is probably a good idea. I cant disagree but I think this type of system is more favorable in LA Nina, its a west to east system in the fast pattern, even if cyclogensis doesnt occur it looks to produce SOME snow for Mid Atl Even if it did morph into a miller b it looks like it would still give us a front end thump before the transfer. A lot of juice moving across the country with this one. Am I even remotely correct? Snow on Xmas would be magic. I have 4 kids and the are used to having a warm or wet xmas. My older kids don't even remember 2002. Sounds correct to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 In strong nina year, such storms are pretty rare or least have been since 1950 so not buying in this early is probably a good idea. I could see two things happening, one it tracks more north than the GFS and especially GEM show it...I can't even physically understand why the GEM seems to be suppressing it so far south in that pattern but honestly I don't see this going much south of the Delmarva at all on its initial west-east trek, it may have the lingering vort in Canada being too strong...2nd the coastal redevelopment may not occur, but even without that its possible a decent amount of snow would still fall north of the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 Anyone have info on UKIE or GEM? to lazy to search it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 GFS has been showing this storm for several days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Wes, um, would you please check your messages? I posted the data you were looking for a few days ago. Sorry everyone.. Shane, Sorry, I did get the data thanks. mea culpa, I meant to let you know but got embroiled in looking at the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Anyone have info on UKIE or GEM? to lazy to search it http://www.americanw...at/page__st__60 Despite the fact you are a Ravens fan and I'm a Steeler fan here you go.Post # 70 is the GGEM at 144 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 In strong nina year, such storms are pretty rare or least have been since 1950 so not buying in this early is probably a good idea. verbatim it would be the biggest snow in a strong nina here i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Sub 976 off the NJ coast at 186 hrs, approaching the benchmark at 189 The GFS deciption of this system being THAT strong is fooking crazy and without ANY basis in fact. None zero ... aModerate decent clipper? ... sure. 976 MB!?!?!?!? come on folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 verbatim it would be the biggest snow in a strong nina here i think The only one I can think of that might be close for a dec storm would be dec 1973. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 http://www.americanw...at/page__st__60 Despite the fact you are a Ravens fan and I'm a Steeler fan here you go.Post # 70 is the GGEM at 144 hours. Thanks, look OK so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 The only one I can think of that might be close for a dec storm would be dec 1973. 10.2 at DCA, which is the biggest i believe- i breifly analoged it to the tonight's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 The GFS deciption of this system being THAT strong is fooking crazy and without ANY basis in fact. None zero ... aModerate decent clipper? ... sure. 976 MB!?!?!?!? come on folks Just a question, maybe im wrong, but isnt the energy from this system resulting from the west coast? wouldnt that not make it a clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 The only one I can think of that might be close for a dec storm would be dec 1973. Edited since Ian already posted the snow total: Yep--it's in one of the nifty charts (this one was all 6"+ snowstorms in Nina winters) Ian put together about Nina stats in DC: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/3068-la-nina-stats-at-washington-dc/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Yep...typical NINA year so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Just a question, maybe im wrong, but isnt the energy from this system resulting from the west coast? wouldnt that not make it a clipper? at 120 hrs at 500 MB you could argue that so yes you do have a Point. BUT clearly northern stream energy from sw and s central Canada does drop into or 'PHASE" in the s/w in the STJ crossing the Rockies it is the phasing that makes the system go BOOM as it closes off A 500 LOW when it cross the Mississippi river at 144 hrs as it goes 'NEUTRAL" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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