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12Z models 12/18/10


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That would be historic for DC and environs. Likely not going to happen as depicted. Check out the QPF maps. I really hate being in the bullseye this far out. Congrats Boston.

This isn't some 10 day threat though. This would be affecting parts of Va in less than 6 days, as modeled. And there's a good bit of consistency going with it. I gathered from the reading that the Euro hints at a storm as well. Wes seems a bit interested. At least so far, I think we can be optimistic.

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It certainly could go somewhere else. The mean pattern is much better than what it's been so this is the first real threat for a snowstorm. The d+8 spits out two snowstorms that ended up having mixing issues but still were big ones. That suggests that the chances for a storm are quite a bit higher than climo. That said, it's wise not to get too excited too early.

Coming from you, that's all I need to hear. I'm officially investing in this one. Let's hope the GGEM/Euro show at least the potential

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Coming from you, that's all I need to hear. I'm officially investing in this one. Let's hope the GGEM/Euro show at least the potential

There still is potential for this to moprh into a miller b type system which could screw us depending on the blocking and the location of the 50 50 low. I do like this set up better than the last one. Of course, the dec 19 one is dead.

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There still is potential for this to moprh into a miller b type system which could screw us depending on the blocking and the location of the 50 50 low. I do like this set up better than the last one. Of course, the dec 19 one is dead.

Even if it did morph into a miller b it looks like it would still give us a front end thump before the transfer. A lot of juice moving across the country with this one. Am I even remotely correct?

Snow on Xmas would be magic. I have 4 kids and the are used to having a warm or wet xmas. My older kids don't even remember 2002.

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In strong nina year, such storms are pretty rare or least have been since 1950 so not buying in this early is probably a good idea.

I cant disagree but I think this type of system is more favorable in LA Nina, its a west to east system in the fast pattern, even if cyclogensis doesnt occur it looks to produce SOME snow for Mid Atl

Even if it did morph into a miller b it looks like it would still give us a front end thump before the transfer. A lot of juice moving across the country with this one. Am I even remotely correct?

Snow on Xmas would be magic. I have 4 kids and the are used to having a warm or wet xmas. My older kids don't even remember 2002.

Sounds correct to me.

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In strong nina year, such storms are pretty rare or least have been since 1950 so not buying in this early is probably a good idea.

I could see two things happening, one it tracks more north than the GFS and especially GEM show it...I can't even physically understand why the GEM seems to be suppressing it so far south in that pattern but honestly I don't see this going much south of the Delmarva at all on its initial west-east trek, it may have the lingering vort in Canada being too strong...2nd the coastal redevelopment may not occur, but even without that its possible a decent amount of snow would still fall north of the track.

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In strong nina year, such storms are pretty rare or least have been since 1950 so not buying in this early is probably a good idea.

verbatim it would be the biggest snow in a strong nina here i think

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Guest someguy

Sub 976 off the NJ coast at 186 hrs, approaching the benchmark at 189

The GFS deciption of this system being THAT strong is fooking crazy and without ANY basis in fact.

None

zero ...

aModerate decent clipper? ... sure.

976 MB!?!?!?!? come on folks

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The GFS deciption of this system being THAT strong is fooking crazy and without ANY basis in fact.

None

zero ...

aModerate decent clipper? ... sure.

976 MB!?!?!?!? come on folks

Just a question, maybe im wrong, but isnt the energy from this system resulting from the west coast? wouldnt that not make it a clipper?

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The only one I can think of that might be close for a dec storm would be dec 1973.

Edited since Ian already posted the snow total:

Yep--it's in one of the nifty charts (this one was all 6"+ snowstorms in Nina winters) Ian put together about Nina stats in DC:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/3068-la-nina-stats-at-washington-dc/

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Guest someguy

Just a question, maybe im wrong, but isnt the energy from this system resulting from the west coast? wouldnt that not make it a clipper?

at 120 hrs at 500 MB you could argue that so yes you do have a Point.

BUT clearly northern stream energy from sw and s central Canada does drop into or 'PHASE" in the s/w in the STJ crossing the Rockies

it is the phasing that makes the system go BOOM as it closes off A 500 LOW when it cross the Mississippi river at 144 hrs as it goes 'NEUTRAL"

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