Griteater's Winter Outlook '13-'14

[mackerel_sky]

I'll bet a weekend getaway to Waycross , they won't go 4 years!

[jburns]

I'll bet a weekend getaway to Waycross , they won't go 4 years!

 

Loser has to go?

[mackerel_sky]

Loser has to go?

. Sure! There's already one down there !

[metalicwx366]

. Sure! There's already one down there !

Hmmmm... Wonder who that could be. Definitely isn't me lol.

[Isopycnic]

Hmmmm... Wonder who that could be. Definitely isn't me lol.

Not I

[Snowless in Carrollton]

I really hope Atlanta doesn't have to go 4 years without any measurable snowfall.

if Atlanta doesn't get any snow this winter it would be the third straight year, which has only happened once before. So it is extremely unusual. 90+ % chance that Atlanta gets snow this winter based on history .

[calculus1]

if Atlanta doesn't get any snow this winter it would be the third straight year, which has only happened once before. So it is extremely unusual. 90+ % chance that Atlanta gets snow this winter based on history .

 

Ah!  So, you heavily endorse empirical probability?

[Cold Rain]

On one hand, if you flip a coin four times and it lands on heads all four, the next flip has approximately a 50% chance of landing on heads again...i.e., it is no more likely to land on tails than it was on the previous flip. The coin-flip analogy could apply here, in that it really doesn't matter what the last two winters have done, as they have no bearing on this winter. Also, the fact that I flipped the coin all day long and never got heads four times in a row is meaningless as it relates to my upcoming flip, other than the fact that I have no life whatsoever.

On the other hand, while a coin-flip's ultimate outcome is based primarily on randomness and chaos, there may be more order to the atmosphere and climate, rendering the stat of "only once has Atlanta gone 3 winters with no snow" more useful and thus applicable when weighting the chances for snow this upcoming winter.

I do not know.

[GaWx]

On one hand, if you flip a coin four times and it lands on heads all four, the next flip has approximately a 50% chance of landing on heads again...i.e., it is no more likely to land on tails than it was on the previous flip. The coin-flip analogy could apply here, in that it really doesn't matter what the last two winters have done, as they have no bearing on this winter. Also, the fact that I flipped the coin all day long and never got heads four times in a row is meaningless as it relates to my upcoming flip, other than the fact that I have no life whatsoever.

On the other hand, while a coin-flip's ultimate outcome is based primarily on randomness and chaos, there may be more order to the atmosphere and climate, rendering the stat of "only once has Atlanta gone 3 winters with no snow" more useful and thus applicable when weighting the chances for snow this upcoming winter.

I do not know.

 

 Excellent post! I think this applies to overdueness in general due to natural, repeating cycles.

[metalicwx366]

if Atlanta doesn't get any snow this winter it would be the third straight year, which has only happened once before. So it is extremely unusual. 90+ % chance that Atlanta gets snow this winter based on history .

Come on. People have been saying the same about hurricane season.

[OKpowdah]

Just came across this. Excellent discussion man! Well done.

[griteater]

Just came across this. Excellent discussion man! Well done.

Appreciate it, and thanks for all of your research.

[griteater]

Just wanted to add a verification post against my winter outlook…and it ain’t pretty, lol.  Black text is from the outlook write-up, and red text is the verification commentary.

 

2013-2014 Winter Forecast Discussion

Based on my forecast calls for the Pacific pattern and the winter NAO, here’s my projected mean storm track for this winter (Dec-Mar), with implied below normal 500mb heights as you move farther north and west of the track, and above normal 500mb heights as you move farther south and east of the track.  The red contour represents the area I feel has the best chance at experiencing above normal temperatures, with the blue contour representing the area with the best chance at below normal temperatures.

 

 

Grade – Major Fail.  Here are the actual surface temperature anomalies for the Dec-Mar period…

 

 

Here are the actual 850mb temperature anomalies.  The zero degree line gives a good approximation of the “mean” storm track from east Texas to eastern Virginia

Summary of Forecast Calls

For the southeast as a whole, I’m going to give a general rating from 0 to 10, based on the following:

0 = well above normal temperatures, well below normal amount of wintry precipitation (snow & ice), well below normal # of winter storm threats

10 = well below normal temperatures, well above normal amount of wintry precipitation (snow & ice), well above normal # of winter storm threats

My call for this winter for the southeast: 2

Grade – Major Fail.  With considerations for the southeast as a whole based on the criteria above, I’m going to give this winter a rating of 8 out of 10.  Basically, I thought it was an above average winter (“B” grade), but the anomalous cold arctic blasts moved it into a B+ / A- grade.     

 

Specifically for Charlotte:

Total snowfall: 0-3 inches

Grade – Major Fail.  Charlotte recorded 9.3 inches of snow.

 

Total # of days with high temperatures of 42 or less: 3-7

Grade – Major Fail.  Charlotte recorded 20 days with a high temperature of 42 or less

 

Total # of days with high temperatures of 32 or less: 0-1

Grade – Major Fail.  Charlotte recorded 4 days with a high temperature of 32 or less

 

Chances of seeing a significant, widespread winter storm across the southeast (e.g. Dec 25, 2010): below to well below normal

Grade – Major Fail: February 11-14 was a major winter storm across the southeast.

 

ENSO will be classified as Neutral

Grade – Pass: The fall/winter ENSO ONI designation will be Negative (Cool) Neutral

 

QBO will be classified as Positive and Falling

Grade – Fail: This positive QBO phase is holding on anomalously long.  For the winter, I will classify it as Positive and Rising.  The best QBO progression comparison for this past winter is the 1975-1976 winter.  

 

10.7 cm solar radio flux averaged for Dec-Feb will fall in the 100-150 range (x 10 ^-22 W m^-2 Hz^-1) – neutral solar flux conditions

Grade – Fail: The Dec-Feb averaged, adjusted flux value came in at 156.  Anything above 150 is considered solar max values.

 

The mean pattern in the north Pacific for this winter will be a poleward reaching Aleutian High (+NPI), with a downstream mean trough in western Canada/U.S.

Grade – Fail: The ideas of a poleward reaching Aleutian High (+NPI) worked out well.  However, I did not project the expansive ridging along / off the west coast and up into eastern Alaska.  This resulted in the mean trough axis being located farther east, extending from the western Great Lakes into western Tennessee.

 

 

 

NAO averaged over the Dec-Mar period will be in the +0.80 to +1.40 range per the Hurrell PC-Based NAO data.

Grade – Pass: This was my only good call in the outlook.  Using the monthly values from NOAA, the average NAO for the Dec-Mar period was +0.53.  The Hurrell Dec-Mar NAO value is not out yet, but my guess is that it will fall in my projected +0.80 to +1.40 range based on past data comparison.

 

Best chance at above normal snow for western U.S. Ski Resorts – All of Utah and Colorado.  In particular, Little Cottonwood Canyon in Utah (Alta/Snowbird) and Steamboat in Colorado which both do well with storms coming out of the NE Pacific.

Grade – OK.  The areas that experienced above normal snow were resorts in Montana, Wyoming, and north central / west central Colorado.  The least amount of snow compared to normal occurred at resorts all throughout California - http://www.bestsnow.net/ (see link for 2013-2014 Season Progress Report)

 

 

Regardless of my prediction, what I would really like to see this winter is another one of these…

Grade – Pass       

 

 

 

Lesson Learned: One thing I should have factored more into my outlook was the persistent pattern of ridging in the northeast Pacific / Gulf of Alaska during Jan-Oct 2013, which was also present during the critical month of October as well.  This ridging pattern in that locale persisted through the winter and prevented a mean trough pattern in the western states.

 

[Cold Rain]

Grit, thanks for taking the time to both put out a forecast and to give a verification of it.  Tough call this year, but lessons learned through a challenge are of great value and will only make us stronger/better.  Can't wait to read the outlook for next year.  Hopefully, it will be filled with tales of much below normal temps and much above normal snowfall....and when verification comes, we'll see a lot of Passes.   JB has already indicated that he thinks next winter will be below normal in temps with above normal in snowfall, fwiw.

[mackerel_sky]

Grit, thanks for taking the time to both put out a forecast and to give a verification of it. Tough call this year, but lessons learned through a challenge are of great value and will only make us stronger/better. Can't wait to read the outlook for next year. Hopefully, it will be filled with tales of much below normal temps and much above normal snowfall....and when verification comes, we'll see a lot of Passes. JB has already indicated that he thinks next winter will be below normal in temps with above normal in snowfall, fwiw.

CR, when does JB not call for below normal temps, and above normal snowfall? ! Great write up, as has been said. What I take away from this winter is: you can have extreme cold, and winter storms in the SE , without a -NAO!

[jburns]

CR, when does JB not call for below normal temps, and above normal snowfall? ! Great write up, as has been said. What I take away from this winter is: you can have extreme cold, and winter storms in the SE , without a -NAO!

 

Oh God no.  Another 1960 in the making.  For the next 50 years, of which I thankfully will miss a great many, every time a winter forecast says, a warm winter can be expected and cites a -NAO, someone will mention the winter of 2013-14.

 

"Not so fast. Remember the winter of 14.  A -NAO all winter and we froze or asses off."

 

Oh the horror.

[mackerel_sky]

Oh God no. Another 1960 in the making. For the next 50 years, of which I thankfully will miss a great many, every time a winter forecast says, a warm winter can be expected and cites a -NAO, someone will mention the winter of 2013-14.

"Not so fast. Remember the winter of 14. A -NAO all winter and we froze or asses off."

Oh the horror.

You already have seen 110 winters, what's 50 more!??

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

J/B was one of the few that actually got the winter forecast right .Again. I 'm ready for a repeat next winter.Hopefully Atlanta will purchase a couple more snow plows after this winter.