NCSNOW Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 I know I am in the minority as it relates to the NAO, but I'm not as concerned with where it goes until I see how hyper-active the PAC will be. When everything is undercut before it has a fighting chance to affect those downstream, I am not even confident a solid, west-based -NAO has enough Kapow! to make a difference in time. Agree Bevo. It all starts with the PAC then works it's way in with me as well. However It would nice to have a super negative NAO on your side. Then again if we did IMO it's irrelevant down here south of 40N if the PAC doesn't cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Fantastic piece Grit! Makes it easy for us lurkers to learn. That said, for all of your trouble, most of us here in the SE only need one cold 2-3 day stretch and a well timed disturbance to hit our yearly nut. It can be warm for 98% of the winter as long as I get one storm. So I am rooting for you, yet for one weekend deep in the heart of January, Brick and I will be eagerly awaiting that central NC mauler. Again, well done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VanillaDream Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Ah, crushing the hope of a decent winter for the south! lol! Great discussion and presentation though! Even better than some PRO's do IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Great forecast! Hope you're wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 "Statistical NAO Model I just recently saw the post referencing the Statistical NAO Model from Al Marinaro. His model is predicting a negative NAO for Dec-Feb (model value is -0.77). It appears that his model is based on upper level wind calculations in May and September. I have seen some of his posts in the past, and my impression is that he does good work. He has this site with reconstructed EPO data that is very good. It’s impossible for me to make a judgment on his NAO prediction without knowing any details about the method used (proprietary)." Thanks for looking into this method of NAO prediction. It will be interesting to see how well the method works this season especially in light of some of the more conventional early indicators that seem to point in the opposite direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Very nice discussion, Griteater. Hopefully, the Atlanta area and Southeast will see at least one decent snowfall this winter. As for the AO/NAO, I agree with you that predominantly positive values appear to be more likely, at least at this point in time. Nice to see you checking in over here Don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 30, 2013 Author Share Posted October 30, 2013 hmm so what proof do u have , the qbo will stay postive for the winter ? I seen proof too prove u wrong an it will be more neutral . U showed no proof the qbo will stay postive . plus u do realize a west based postive qbo favor's a west ridge not a south east ridge during the winter ? u can can call this winter neautral all u want but the facts are the pacific is a lot warmer this year then the last 2 winter's an this year the water south of green land is even warmer there will be blocking its called a tri pole affect,have u notice the soi is neg now ? this winter want be your typicall neutral winter the mjo will turn active in dec an favor the midwest too the eastern us just like it's been doing sense last spring , so maybe u need too look at my points cause ,i cover all the angle's on winter, not just a bunch of number's now. as u know every winter is diffrent an the analogs are way over used in todays time when u have low solar an a solar max togeather u better look out cause nothing will be normal period .i think it's funny how u agree al is good? but he is wrong at the same time ? i am sure the way things sound from your end , he is a better forcaster than u ? maybe u should have seen his qbo too nao analog for the winter .http://t.co/Ck2YbpZinL. one more thing let the facts show there a 60 too 70 percent chance of haveing a neg nao winter when haveing a bove normal eurasia into east canada snow fall connection, that alone would favor the east an south east with a neg nao .. On the QBO, it depends on the level you are analyzing. I chose the 45mb level averaged for Jan/Feb based on how it was defined in the QBO column in this table. The easterly winds (-QBO) have already descended into the 10-15mb range; but the westerly winds (+QBO) are holding strong for now at the 45mb level. My projection is for the Jan/Feb averaged QBO at 45mb to be positive with the QBO easterlies descending into the 20mb - 35mb range in that same timeframe. I'm not sure what is meant by a west-based QBO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 30, 2013 Author Share Posted October 30, 2013 Fantastic piece Grit! Makes it easy for us lurkers to learn. That said, for all of your trouble, most of us here in the SE only need one cold 2-3 day stretch and a well timed disturbance to hit our yearly nut. It can be warm for 98% of the winter as long as I get one storm. So I am rooting for you, yet for one weekend deep in the heart of January, Brick and I will be eagerly awaiting that central NC mauler. Again, well done! I agree with you, and you hit on something here that I tried to incorporate into the general 0-10 rating for the SE. That is, since we have so few actual winter storms across the bulk of the SE, I think part of the winter 'experience' here is, how many threats are there? If you think back to the '11-'12 winter, there was the one snow event across northern TN / northern NC, but outside of that, it was wall to wall no threats...I would have rated it a 0. BTW, just a note that I changed the text in the 0-10 rating section to read, "total amount of wintry precipitation (snow/ice)" to better capture the volume of wintry precip as opposed to just saying "total # of winter storms" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 ^ Thanks for all of the feedback and comments...I really appreciate it.A great read, well researched. thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Well written , well researched and very educational. Thank you for your time and effort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Griteater, Well done, sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Loved your winter outlook, griteater. Very well done! But I'm hoping that this will turn out to be a great set-up for an epic ice storm to beat 2002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 30, 2013 Author Share Posted October 30, 2013 people think i attacked u bye talking about facts of the winter, i called this funny , first of all there is a east qbo and west based qbo ,bye u not knowing that messes up your forcast . last winter we was in a east based weak neg qbo . this winter we in a west based qbo and there are theorys an facts too back me up that a south east ridge want be favored this winter . one reason we are in a low solar /solar max year . lets just say the low solar don't last ? ok december will be warmer but there are proven thoerys that saids even if the sun spots go above normal that also favors a postive qbo high solar blocking in jan an feb . we will see who is right on this ? the chances of u being right are slim at best nothing personal . OK, when you said west-based QBO you were talking about the westerly/positive QBO. I wasn't sure if you were referring to something positional in nature. My outlook could be 100% wrong. I simply gave my projections based on the factors considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 LMAO....and a few more too! Excellent work griteater...I like the warmer side of normal (shocking) but maybe not quite as aggressive. I do feel we will spend some longer periods in that pattern though. I just like a few more weeks of some winter cold this year as opposed to the last two. At any rate, very impressively constructed and thought out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 So it sounds like Grit is going warm and bobbit is going warm, while disagreeing with Grit's forecast. I am confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 people think i attacked u bye talking about facts of the winter, i called this funny , first of all there is a east qbo and west based qbo ,bye u not knowing that messes up your forcast . last winter we was in a east based weak neg qbo . this winter we in a west based qbo and there are theorys an facts too back me up that a south east ridge want be favored this winter . one reason we are in a low solar /solar max year . lets just say the low solar don't last ? ok december will be warmer but there are proven thoerys that saids even if the sun spots go above normal that also favors a postive qbo high solar blocking in jan an feb . we will see who is right on this ? the chances of u being right are slim at best nothing personal . It's a forecast. It is not the idea of attack so much as the outright dismissal of something that no one will know the outcome of for at least a few months. His chances are no worse than anyone elses and I would be more inclined to be on his side if only for the fact he wrote in English... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 So it sounds like Grit is going warm and bobbit is going warm, while disagreeing with Grit's forecast. I am confused. The slight difference in presentation could be what is confusing you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 It's a forecast. It is not the idea of attack so much as the outright dismissal of something that no one will know the outcome of for at least a few months. His chances are no worse than anyone elses and I would be more inclined to be on his side if only for the fact he wrote in English... Wanna come to charlotte this Sunday?? I'm not sure what that guy said to be honest. I thought I was bad at Engrish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 people think i attacked u bye talking about facts of the winter, i called this funny , first of all there is a east qbo and west based qbo ,bye u not knowing that messes up your forcast . last winter we was in a east based weak neg qbo . this winter we in a west based qbo and there are theorys an facts too back me up that a south east ridge want be favored this winter . one reason we are in a low solar /solar max year . lets just say the low solar don't last ? ok december will be warmer but there are proven thoerys that saids even if the sun spots go above normal that also favors a postive qbo high solar blocking in jan an feb . we will see who is right on this ? the chances of u being right are slim at best nothing personal . A -QBO is easterly and a +QBO is westerly. There is no need to call it an easterly -QBO. He was kind enough to give you the benefit of the doubt that you were trying to talk about structure of shear stress or something like that; but, it turned out to be just your ignorance, not his. The +QBO/Smax is based on a lot of things (that I won't waste my time getting into with you) that aren't as simple as saying, "gee these two things exist so -AO late winter". But anyway, the -NAM state wouldn't kick in during January and possibly not even in time for most of February, unless an El NIno/+PDO type of circulation was in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 The slight difference in presentation could be what is confusing you.Ha! Could be.According to what I interpret bobbit to be saying is that last winter, we had a -QBO. Last winter, I think we had a SE ridge. This winter, if we get a +QBO, we will have a SE ridge. If that's the case, then we oughtta think about doing away with the QBO altogether. On the other hand, maybe I jumped the gun on wanting to eliminate the QBO. Maybe there are "other" factors that influence the development/evolution of such features as a SE ridge that are just as important than the QBO. Or maybe, the above interpretation of the QBO phase/resulting pattern is in error. Or maybe, like you said, I am not decoding bobbit's meandering musings correctly. Either way, there is some incongruity somewhere. Edit: ok, I went back and reread and reread bobbit's thoughts and it appears that he's saying that he believes that the SE ridge will NOT be a mainstay this winter. So, that's my mistake for misinterpreting...assuming my reinterpretation if my misinterpretation is the correct interpretation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Wanna come to charlotte this Sunday?? I'm not sure what that guy said to be honest. I thought I was bad at Engrish. It is interesting in the NFL how you can go from one complete pass away from the SB to vying for the top pick in the draft...I am going to duck and cover on Sunday but will take my medicine like a big boy when you dole it out...John Wayne Bobbitt is going to come back on here and make some claim about why his english sucks...I do miss the days of having the IP tracker to see which troll this is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 I agree with you, and you hit on something here that I tried to incorporate into the general 0-10 rating for the SE. That is, since we have so few actual winter storms across the bulk of the SE, I think part of the winter 'experience' here is, how many threats are there? If you think back to the '11-'12 winter, there was the one snow event across northern TN / northern NC, but outside of that, it was wall to wall no threats...I would have rated it a 0. BTW, just a note that I changed the text in the 0-10 rating section to read, "total amount of wintry precipitation (snow/ice)" to better capture the volume of wintry precip as opposed to just saying "total # of winter storms" Much nicer response than I would have given I have moved bobbit's posts to the banter thread and advise him to read more and post less. FYI...... I have no issue with someone who disagrees and would like to prove their theory by adding valid material for a discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Much nicer response than I would have given I have moved bobbit's posts to the banter thread and advise him to read more and post less. FYI...... I have no issue with someone who disagrees and would like to prove their theory by adding valid material for a discussion. Good job soldier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Nice work Grit, best of luck on your forecast. You certainly put in a LOT of work and while many on the board may not like it, I would say it's certainly very well thought out and presented in a professional manner. Kudos. Side note - my eyes are now "literally" twitching from reading bobbit's rebuttal. I have a much easier time reading my 2nd grader's school work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Nicely done!!! Very well presented, thanks for sharing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Good job soldier! A tracker sighting in the SE forum....short as expected! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 A tracker sighting in the SE forum....short as expected! This is why we're friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 I agree with you, and you hit on something here that I tried to incorporate into the general 0-10 rating for the SE. That is, since we have so few actual winter storms across the bulk of the SE, I think part of the winter 'experience' here is, how many threats are there? If you think back to the '11-'12 winter, there was the one snow event across northern TN / northern NC, but outside of that, it was wall to wall no threats...I would have rated it a 0. BTW, just a note that I changed the text in the 0-10 rating section to read, "total amount of wintry precipitation (snow/ice)" to better capture the volume of wintry precip as opposed to just saying "total # of winter storms" Bingo! And that's the beauty of living in the deep south. All the signs can be with you, and you get nothing, and all the signs can be against you, and you get a 100 year storm NIce work! I prefer normal, at least, but we'll see. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Well researched and rounded forecast. Good luck on your call. Amazing one winter forecast and Jerry Springer comes to town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 I really hope Atlanta doesn't have to go 4 years without any measurable snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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