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Halloween Severe Threat (Oct. 30-31)


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Everything I'm posting here is coming directly from the Caraway FD, on the Craighead County Dispatch feed. As far as I'm hearing, the whole town is without power, it's no wonder there's no reports yet.

 

Oh I understand that, just wanted to make sure that we're still waiting on reliable reports (scanner traffic is often dubious or the information just too early to confirm much), especially for such a disturbing report about missing children. NWS MEG is confirming they have no radio contact with Caraway right now so it's a trickle at best so far.

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That was a tough spot for MEG.  They had just begun with

storms strengthening and they immediately had a quick

decision to make.  I'm glad they got it, even if it was LT 5

minutes or less, because this easily could have been one

where the warning came because of the TDS and not the

velocity data with the storm's fast movement.

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That's negative per the FD, search is in progress, only one missing accounted for so far.

Seems there is some miscommunication then. Caraway Police is now confirming to TWC that everybody is safe. Trick or treaters were found in a storm shelter.

If PD verified that, that's a very good thing, at the time I posted the FD was still searching though. Good deal.

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That was a tough spot for MEG.  They had just begun with

storms strengthening and they immediately had a quick

decision to make.  I'm glad they got it, even if it was LT 5

minutes or less, because this easily could have been one

where the warning came because of the TDS and not the

velocity data with the storm's fast movement.

 

The TDS was there well before MEG's TOR. First developed at 7:29, TOR was issued at 7:36. Caraway did get 3 minutes warning at least. Through NWSChat it was apparent MEG wasn't even watching dual-pol products, somebody an hour later had to point out to them that there was a debris signature at all, they never mentioned it in the warning and still won't call it a TOR in the LSR even though it's blatantly obvious it was because that's what a true TDS (and this was) tells us.

 

Better than no warning at all, but they did kind of drop the ball. Especially since they were insistent this afternoon that no severe threat would materialize anywhere (an assessment I would have largely agreed with - to be 100% transparent though).

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T-storm watch just issued for my area until 4am.

 

 

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 556

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1010 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN INDIANA

NORTHEAST KENTUCKY

OHIO

LAKE ERIE

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1010 PM

UNTIL 400 AM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH

NORTHEAST OF CLEVELAND OHIO TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF

CINCINNATI OHIO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 554...WW 555...

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS INTENSIFYING

OVER IND. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK RAPIDLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE

EARLY MORNING HOURS...POSING A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

post-4544-0-59496000-1383272240_thumb.gi

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Tornado warning just to my north.

 

 

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1113 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN AUGLAIZE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...
NORTHEASTERN DARKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...
NORTHWESTERN LOGAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...
NORTHWESTERN MIAMI COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...
SHELBY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...

* UNTIL 1145 PM EDT.

* AT 1110 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO LOCATED NEAR RUSSIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SIDNEY...
BOTKINS...
RUSSELLS POINT...

IN ADDITION...FORT LORAMIE...LOCKINGTON...NEWBERN...LAKE LORAMIE
STATE PARK...HARDIN...MCCARTYVILLE...KETTLERSVILLE AND SWANDERS ARE
NEAR THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...
I-75 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 87 AND 107...

 

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Wow. I didn't think I'd see a tornado warning in Ohio today.  The storm is analogous to Nov 10 2002. Not much happened in the Ohio Valley till late today. In fact, I didn't think any severe reports would be much north of the Ohio river, but I was wrong.  From my perspective, the low-topped storms would be so much harder to warn for.

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For a day with so little instability, not bad, not bad at all...

131031_rpts_filtered.gif

Even factoring in the rise in reports over the years, this is likely the biggest Halloween severe weather outbreak in the Ohio Valley at least in the post 1950 era.

Yeah I do expect a few more tornadoes to be added to the list, I know the one in AR isn't listed for example.
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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY

827 AM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013

...Damage Survey Results for Calvert City Kentucky Damage...

* Event Type.........EF0 Tornado

* Event Date.........Thursday October 31, 2013

* Event Time.........9:03 PM

* Event Location.....South Side of Calvert City KY from Laurel Lane

northeast across HWY 62 and along Oak Park Blvd ending near Oak Park

and 15th Ave SE.

* Peak Wind..........85 MPH

* AVG. Path Width....50 YARDS

* Path Length.........0.4 MILES

* Injuries............None

* Fatalities..........None

* Damage Detail.......Metal Roofing removed from about 2/3 of a

small strip mall with other minor damage damage to structures as

well. one large tree was uprooted and limbs were broken on several

other trees.

$$

Shanklin

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Yeah I do expect a few more tornadoes to be added to the list, I know the one in AR isn't listed for example.

There's a confirmed tornado not on there just north of me in Miami County and the verdict is still out in the city of Vandalia near the Dayton Airport if there was a tornado or just very strong winds.

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
230 PM CDT FRI NOV 01 2013

..PRELIMINARY EF-1 TORNADO IN CRAIGHEAD COUNTY ARKANSAS

* COUNTY/COUNTIES: CRAIGHEAD

* LOCATION/TIME OF EVENT: TOWN OF CARAWAY, APPROX 7:40PM CDT

* BEGINNING POINT: LAT 36.4529 LON -90.1927

* ENDING POINT: LAT 36.4544 LON -90.1855

* RATING: EF1

* ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 90 - 100 MPH

* PATH LENGTH: .7 MILES

* MAXIMUM WIDTH: 300 YARDS

* FATALITIES: 0

* INJURIES: 0

* SUMMARY OF DAMAGES: THE LIGHTNINGLESS STORM STRENGTHENED JUST TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE TOWN OF CARAWAY IN CRAIGHEAD COUNTY ARKANSAS.
STRAIGHTLINE WIND DAMAGE WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 60-80 MPH WAS FOUND
WEST SOUTHWEST OF CARAWAY AND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE TOWN. THE TORNADO DEVELOPED AND TOUCHED DOWN JUST SOUTHWEST
OF THE BUSINESS DISTRICT IN CARAWAY AND DID SIGNIFICANT STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE TO THE ROOFS OF MANY HOMES...BUSINESSES...AND CHURCHES AS
WELL AS UPROOTING DOZENS OF TRESS. EVIDENCE OF INFLOW INTO THE
CIRCULATION CENTER WAS FOUND THROUGHOUT THE TOWN VIA DOWNED TREES
STRONGLY INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF A TORNADIC EVENT. THE TORNADO
WAS MOVING AT A RATE OF SPEED CLOSE TO 40-45 MPH THROUGH THE TOWN
AND LIFTED NEAR THE FAR NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF TOWN. EYEWITNESSES
REPORTED SEEING THE TORNADO MOVE INTO THE TOWN AS THEY SHELTERED
CHILDREN AND ADULTS INTO VARIOUS STORM SHELTERS FROM HALLOWEEN
FESTIVITIES AND BONFIRES. 

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY

356 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013

...DAMAGE SURVEY RESULTS FOR SOUTHERN CAPE GIRARDEAU COUNTY NEAR DUTCHTOWN...

* EVENT TYPE.........EF1 TORNADO

* EVENT DATE.........THURSDAY OCTOBER 31, 2013

* EVENT TIME.........7:05 PM TO 7:09 PM

* EVENT LOCATION.....3 MILES NORTHWEST OF DUTCHTOWN TO 2.5 MILES NORTHEAST OF DUTCHTOWN

* PEAK WIND..........105 MPH

* MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH....150 YARDS

* PATH LENGTH.........4.25 MILES

* INJURIES............NONE

* FATALITIES..........NONE

* DAMAGE DETAILS.......NUMEROUS TREES UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. HOUSE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY OFF FOUNDATION AND ROOF LIFTED AND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY. AT LEAST TWO OTHER HOUSES WITH ROOF DAMAGE FROM FALLEN TREES AND POWER LINES. 1 BARN LEVELED AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH ROOF DAMAGE.

SHANKLIN/BLANCHARD

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY

347 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013

...DAMAGE SURVEY RESULTS FOR SOUTHEAST WILLIAMSON AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST SALINE COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS...

* EVENT TYPE.........EF1 TORNADO

* EVENT DATE.........THURSDAY OCTOBER 31, 2013

* EVENT TIME.........7:51 PM TO 8:04 PM

* EVENT LOCATION.....1 MILE SOUTH OF CREAL SPRINGS TO 4 MILES EAST OF STONEFORT

* PEAK WIND..........100 MPH

* MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH....175 YARDS

* PATH LENGTH.........10 MILES

* INJURIES............NONE

* FATALITIES..........NONE

* DAMAGE DETAILS.......3 BARNS AND 2 HOMES DAMAGED. NUMEROUS TREES UPROOTED AND SNAPPED. POWER LINES DOWN.

SPODEN/LUDINGTON

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