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Halloween Severe Threat (Oct. 30-31)


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SPC added a 5% tornado risk in the zone I highlighted earlier this morning. Still the standard 15% wind though, which I am a bit surprised about to be honest.

 

Yep, too bad that Beau Dodson doesn't post on here anymore. His area should be ground zero for any tornadic activity.

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New nice sized Tornado watch out.

 

 

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 554
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
525 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHERN INDIANA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 525
PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80
MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI TO 55 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF LOUISVILLE
KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 552...WW 553...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING OVER SOUTHEAST
MO. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS EVENING. WHILE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LARGE...EXTREMELY STRONG WIND
FIELDS MAY COMPENSATE FOR WEAK INSTABILITY AND POSE A RISK OF AN
ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT WIND GUST OR TORNADO.

 

post-4544-0-36503000-1383259666_thumb.gi

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Two couplets have shown up in the line west of PAH. One passed where the below report was filed...

 

0633 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 W NAYLOR 36.57N 90.70W
10/31/2013 RIPLEY MO TRAINED SPOTTER

UPDATED AT 0708 PM. DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES. DAMAGE
TO SHED. INJURED OR DEAD CATTLE. SEVERAL HARD WOODED
TREES DOWN. BARN DESTROYED. OUTBUILDINGS DAMAGED. WINDS
ESTIMATED 75 MPH.  

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Two couplets have shown up in the line west of PAH. One passed where the below report was filed...

 

0633 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 W NAYLOR 36.57N 90.70W

10/31/2013 RIPLEY MO TRAINED SPOTTER

UPDATED AT 0708 PM. DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES. DAMAGE

TO SHED. INJURED OR DEAD CATTLE. SEVERAL HARD WOODED

TREES DOWN. BARN DESTROYED. OUTBUILDINGS DAMAGED. WINDS

ESTIMATED 75 MPH.  

 

Sounds like a tornado, probably stronger than 75mph too.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY

723 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0720 PM TSTM WND DMG CAPE GIRARDEAU 37.31N 89.55W

10/31/2013 CAPE GIRARDEAU MO EMERGENCY MNGR

SEMI-TRACTOR ROLLED OVER DUE TO WIND NEAR MILE MARKER 96

ALONG INTERSTATE 55.

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PAH pulled the trigger on the Dexter storm seconds after I posted about it.

The Cape Girardeau storm was already warned.  The Dexter storm is the

one which produced significant straight-line wind damage south of Poplar

Bluff.  It may have been a tornado near Naylor, but could have been a

Microburst as well.  I thought the SVR from PAH was correct at that point

because the rotation was not well-defined at that moment.  The area where

damage was reported was in the strong wind velocity on radar, but with the

distance away, a spin-up may have been hiding underneath.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY759 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON.....DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....            ..REMARKS..0750 PM     TORNADO          1 S CREAL SPRINGS       37.60N 88.84W10/31/2013                   WILLIAMSON         IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT            ...UNCONFIRMED...REPORTED BY OFF DUTY 911 OPERATOR.            REPORTED WINDS AND RAINS INCREASED AND HEARD THE SOUND OF            A FREIGHT TRAIN.   

The Creal Springs area has been hit by a tornado previously. 

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FWIW - NWS is not been able to confirm any of the reports out of Caraway. They only have info of some damage in the Monette area and adjacent Mississippi County. Will certainly hope any "missing kid" reports are just rumor or else quickly resolved after a chaotic few minutes (which typically is the case). 

 

Obviously a tornado hit there. TDS is evident. Will have to be patient for any more.

EDIT - KAIT out of Jonesboro is by far closest to this area. So far they aren't getting any reliable reports from them either. Keep a check on them for any first news...

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

TORNADO WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  

826 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A  

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  

SOUTHERN GALLATIN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...  

NORTH CENTRAL HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...  

CENTRAL UNION COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...  

 

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT  

 

* AT 823 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF  

EQUALITY...AND MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.  

 

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  

 

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

 

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO  

ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS  

WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS  

LIKELY.  

 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  

MORGANFIELD...BRECKINRIDGE CENTER AND WAVERLY.

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FWIW - NWS is not been able to confirm any of the reports out of Caraway. They only have info of some damage in the Monette area and adjacent Mississippi County. Will certainly hope any "missing kid" reports are just rumor or else quickly resolved after a chaotic few minutes (which typically is the case).

Obviously a tornado hit there. TDS is evident. Will have to be patient for any more.

EDIT - KAIT out of Jonesboro is by far closest to this area. So far they aren't getting any reliable reports from them either. Keep a check on them for any first news...

Everything I'm posting here is coming directly from the Caraway FD, on the Craighead County Dispatch feed. As far as I'm hearing, the whole town is without power, it's no wonder there's no reports yet.

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