Halloween Severe Threat (Oct. 30-31)

[Tim from Springfield (IL)]

Although at this time most of the action will be south of this subforum, W KY and SW IN are outlined in SPC's Day 4 severe threat area in time for Halloween Thursday, with strongly worded language at the beginning of the discussion:

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0359 AM CDT MON OCT 28 2013   VALID 311200Z - 051200Z   ...DISCUSSION...   A SEVERE RISK REMAINS APPARENT ESPECIALLY ON DAY 4/THURSDAY. THIS   WILL BE AS A CONSIDERABLE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED   EASTWARD-ACCELERATING COLD FRONT SPREAD EASTWARD AND INTERCEPT A   SEASONALLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS FROM THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MS RIVER   VALLEY INTO THE TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS. WHILE EARLY-DAY CONVECTION IS   AN UNCERTAINTY FACTOR...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MOST FAVORABLE   /OR CERTAIN/ COMBINATION OF MODEST INSTABILITY/STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR   WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS/TN VALLEY...ALTHOUGH   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAKER WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT. GIVEN A   VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL/DEEP-LAYER   SHEAR...DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME TORNADOES /POTENTIALLY A FEW STRONG/   WILL BE POSSIBLE.    FARTHER NORTH ON DAY 4/THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DEGREE OF   DESTABILIZATION IS UNCERTAIN...A SEVERE /DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS   TORNADO/ RISK CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED FOR ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE OH   VALLEY/NEARBY GREAT LAKES. THIS INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF A   STRONGLY FORCED/LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE IN ASSOCIATION WITH   ROBUST VERTICAL SHEAR/FORCING FOR ASCENT.   INTO DAY 5/FRIDAY...THE STRONGEST UPPER TROUGH-ASSOCIATED ASCENT   SHOULD SPREAD AWAY FROM THE RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. EVEN SO...A   MOIST AIRMASS/VERY STRONG SHEAR COULD ACCOUNT FOR SOME STRONGER   STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND PERHAPS ADDITIONAL   PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS.   ..GUYER.. 10/28/2013

[Jonger]

This Halloween looks terrible.... I have a 6yr and 2yr who are going to be soaked, along with dad of course.

[Ethel975]

I'm a little confused because the information in the OP has been changed to this one, which is dated yesterday, not today.  Where did the other one go?

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0411 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013   VALID 301200Z - 041200Z   CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY OF THE WEEK   ...DISCUSSION...   A MULTI-DAY SEVERE RISK REMAINS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON DAYS 4-5   WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS A CONSIDERABLE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED   COLD FRONT SPREAD GENERALLY EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND   INTERCEPT A SEASONALLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. ABOVE-AVERAGE   GUIDANCE VARIABILITY STILL CONTINUES /FASTER GFS VERSUS SLOWER   ECMWF/...SUCH THAT SPATIAL/SCENARIO VARIABILITY EXISTS AND AREAL   ADJUSTMENTS OF THE RISK AREAS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE NEEDED.    ON DAY 4/WEDNESDAY...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE   POSSIBLE WITHIN A GENERAL CORRIDOR FROM OK/NORTH TX TO THE LOWER MO   RIVER VALLEY/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...AND POTENTIALLY AS FAR NORTH AS   PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY PENDING SUFFICIENT   DESTABILIZATION. AS THE UPPER TROUGH POTENTIALLY TAKES ON A MORE   NEGATIVE TILT INTO DAY 5/THURSDAY...A SEVERE RISK SHOULD SPREAD   EASTWARD TO THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY. SOME SEVERE   RISK ON DAY 5/THURSDAY COULD EVEN POTENTIALLY EXIST AS FAR NORTH AS   THE OH VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD SUFFICIENT /ALBEIT   MODEST/ DESTABILIZATION MATERIALIZE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.   ..GUYER.. 10/27/2013

[Hoosier]

I think lack of instability is likely to hold things in check with northward extent on Thursday. Whether the threat drops off north of I-70 or north of the Ohio River remains to be seen. Mid level lapse rates don't look very good so this is a problem that is not easily correctable without much greater than expected daytime heating.

[Stebo]

I think lack of instability is likely to hold things in check with northward extent on Thursday. Whether the threat drops off north of I-70 or north of the Ohio River remains to be seen. Mid level lapse rates don't look very good so this is a problem that is not easily correctable without much greater than expected daytime heating.

 

The problem right now is the GFS is leaning too far toward climo along with water loading in the column, it is showing only mid to upper 50s for MI/IN/OH/IL on Thursday for high temperatures and I could see most of those places being at least in the mid 60s and south of I-70 in the low 70s.

[TheWeatherPimp]

Temperatures across most of Central Indiana shouldn't have much problem making it into the mid 60's and some of the guidance is even warmer than that. Models typically underdo temps with these fall systems and in turn underdo instability. We will see but I would bank on more of a severe weather threat than is currently being progged.

[Hoosier]

The problem right now is the GFS is leaning too far toward climo along with water loading in the column, it is showing only mid to upper 50s for MI/IN/OH/IL on Thursday for high temperatures and I could see most of those places being at least in the mid 60s and south of I-70 in the low 70s.

I'd be a lot more excited where temps get into the 70s, as there's certainly plenty of shear and forcing with this system.

[Stebo]

I'd be a lot more excited where temps get into the 70s, as there's certainly plenty of shear and forcing with this system.

65 is the threshold I am watching for the region, 70 would be nice, and along and south of I-70 certainly looks capable of 70+.

[TheWeatherPimp]

Some of the model guidance is creeping upwards of 70 or higher for Indy on Thursday. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kind

[Geos]

Probably this far west, the cold front timing will be a bit late or early -however you want to say it. Right now I have a 62° high for Halloween. Local forecasters talking about thunderstorms, but no severe weather talk yet.

 

Some shear up this way. Probably the best chance of severe in IL will be south of I-80.

 

 

Edit: Ramsey was just saying the LOT cwa could get into the dry slot by trick o'treat time, but too far in advance to call that now.

[Hoosier]

Well, if a big threat does materialize, it carries greater risk to the public than usual given the date we are talking about. Can't remember the last time there was a chance of severe storms right on Halloween.

[Stebo]

Well, if a big threat does materialize, it carries greater risk to the public than usual given the date we are talking about. Can't remember the last time there was a chance of severe storms right on Halloween.

 

I can't think of any major severe events on Halloween itself. Only one Halloween had a modest outbreak in the plains and that was 2000 with 14 tornadoes. Here is a list of the days with tornadoes on Halloween since 1950 per SPC Online SeverePlot:

 

1958 1

1960 1

1973 2

1974 5

1984 7

1985 2 

1991 1

1992 2

1994 1 

1997 7

1999 4

2000 14

2004 1

 

Only in 1984 was there a fatality due to a tornado. Needless to say it is decently rare to have tornadoes on Halloween especially an outbreak of tornadoes.

[Hoosier]

Here are the last Halloween tornado/severe weather occurrences by state. Either past Halloween threats didn't pan out or there haven't been many to begin with (we are just talking about 1 day after all) and really nothing in the subforum that could be deemed significant. The absence of activity in Kentucky was a surprise.

Tornado / Any severe weather:

MN: none / none

WI: none / 2000*

MI: none / none

IA: 2000 / 2000

IL: none / 1997*

IN: 1994 / 1994

OH: none / 1994*

KY: none / none

MO: 2004* / 2008

*occurred after midnight on 11/1 but still on 10/31 "SPC day"

[snowlover2]

Nice disco from NWS ILN on this severe threat.

 

 

 

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF...ARE IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS ON
THURSDAY TO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WAA IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON
THURSDAY. THE STRONGEST FORCING IN THE FORM OF A 925 MB-850 MB LLJ
WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY EVENING. IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR AT THIS
POINT AS TO WHETHER THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY A
PREFRONTAL TROF OR WILL BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT.
IN EITHER CASE...WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS ALOFT...I.E. 850 MB WINDS IN
THE 60-70 KNOT RANGE AND 925 MB WINDS IN THE 45-50 KNOTS...IT DOES
NOT TAKE MUCH INSTABILITY TO BRING SOME OF THESE WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE IN THE FORM OF CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS/PCPN DRAGGING. SO EVEN
IF THERE ENDS UP NOT BEING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
THUNDER...IF THE CONVECTION...EVEN IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS...CAN
CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR STRUCTURE...THE THREAT OF STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS WILL EXIST. WE OFTEN SEE THESE HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE QLCS
SYSTEMS (SOME LACKING THUNDER) IN THE COOL SEASON (FALL/WINTER).
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR IT. THE HWO CURRENTLY
HAS THIS COVERED WITH THUNDERED MENTIONED...BUT AS STATED...EVEN A
LINEAR CONVECTIVE SHOWER LINE COULD BE A THREAT AS WELL. OUTSIDE OF
PCPN...WE COULD SEE SOME WAA GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 KNOT RANGE ON
THURSDAY WITH SOME 20-25 KNOT GUSTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE TEMPERED SOME DUE TO
CLOUDS AND PCPN BUT WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA...THEY SHOULD BOOST
INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. SHOWERS AND/OR /EMBEDDED
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL DRY OUT ON FRIDAY WITH ONLY LIMITED COOLING.
BUT A SECONDARY TROUGH/FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
WHICH WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SATURDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND WILL SHIFT
EAST ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS RETURN FLOW AROUND DEPARTING HIGH OCCURS

 

[Geos]

EURO showing a lot of convection in eastern Iowa, IL, and eastern WI after 18z Thursday. Showing a wave moving from ICT to MKE.

A lot of that convection comes during trick o'treating. 

Best shear stays in IN and MI.

[Hoosier]

30% area in KY...

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0230 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013    

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z    

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MS  RIVER VALLEY TO THE OH RIVER VALLEY...     

..ARKLATEX/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS    

A LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR REGIME IS EXPECTED TO BRING AT LEAST AN  ISOLATED SEVERE RISK TO A BROAD REGIONAL EXTENT ON THURSDAY. A  CONSIDERABLE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY SEEMS  LIKELY TO TAKE ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT...ESPECIALLY BY  THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT CROSSES THE MIDWEST/OH RIVER VALLEY. VERY  STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOWEST FEW KM WILL QUICKLY  TRANSPORT A SEASONALLY MOIST AIRMASS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A  COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD ESPECIALLY THURSDAY  NIGHT ACROSS THE TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS AND MIDWEST. BY LATE  AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THURSDAY...LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY  EXIST AS FAR NORTH AS PORTIONS OF IL/INDIANA AND OH.    

WHILE EARLY CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE A  COMPLICATING FACTOR ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER/MIDDLE MS  RIVER VALLEY...THE MOST FAVORABLE /OR CERTAIN/ COMBINATION OF MODEST  INSTABILITY/STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING  SHOULD MATERIALIZE GENERALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS/TN  VALLEY...ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAKER WITH  SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT. GIVEN A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND  AMPLE LOW-LEVEL/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME TORNADOES  WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WHAT SHOULD BE A COMPLEX STORM MODE INCLUDING  LINE-EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES/SOME SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. IN  FACT...A STRONG TORNADO RISK CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED ACROSS PARTS OF  THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY GIVEN THE ROBUST MAGNITUDE OF THE  LOW-LEVEL WINDS /50-65 KT IN LOWEST 1-2 KM/...VERY STRONG SRH...AND  THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.    

WHILE THE EXACT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IS UNCERTAIN WITH  NORTHWARD EXTENT INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY...LOW-LEVEL  MOISTURE/MEAGER INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF  A FAST-MOVING/ACCELERATING LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE THURSDAY  EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS. AS SUCH...IT APPEARS  THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL NOCTURNALLY BE  POSSIBLE...EVEN IF THERE IS A RELATIVE ABSENCE OF  LIGHTNING-PRODUCING CONVECTION.    

..GUYER.. 10/29/2013  

[Thunder Road]

Ukie, at least, says it's a wet Halloween for the GLOV:

 

 

(My title is too long - but note this is valid at 00z Fri.)

 

 

Nice 60-70 kt LLJ at this point too:

 

[snowlover2]

Interesting tidbit from the ILN AFD.

 

 

 

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT WILL DISSOLVE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
THEN REFORM NEAR THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH IN THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS INCREASES IN THE NORTH. WARM ADVECTION WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 60S FOR HIGHS.

THE REAL SHOW WILL BE ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A STRONG
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING
THROUGH. THIS WILL BRING A BROAD BAND OF SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE ENHANCED BY A LOW
LEVEL JET OF AROUND 60 KNOTS. SYNOPTIC SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 20 MPH GUSTING TO 35 MPH. AS BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTION
FORM IN THIS LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...THERE MAY SOME
SEVERE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW TORNADOES.

 

[Geos]

Some shear on the 0z NAM srf-925mb level, but most of the concentrated area is south of IND.

srf-850mb is a different story.

 

 

 

Will be interesting to see what happens in MI.

[WestCoaster]

From Environment Canada special weather statement for most of southern and central Ontario:
 

==discussion==
'tis the season for Colorado lows and this week is no exception.
A developing Colorado low will make its way towards Ontario Wednesday
night, ushering in a wet windy but warmer Thursday. Periods of rain
are slated to begin Wednesday night across Southwestern Ontario
reaching Toronto towards dawn Thursday.

Trick or treaters may have a rather wet time during the evening hours
especially from Southwestern Ontario and northeastwards through
Georgian Bay and beyond. But the rain may be more sporadic across
the Niagara, Greater Toronto and Eastern Ontario regions until later
in the evening when steadier rain is likely to set in. So ghouls and
goblins in and around regions neighbouring Lake Ontario may luck out
for part of the evening. The howl of the wind may also accompany
that of the werewolf, as gusty winds bring in mild temperatures for
Halloween revelers.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.

End

 

 

[Snowstorms]

From Environment Canada special weather statement for most of southern and central Ontario:

LOOL EC should do such a weather statement all the time to keep people satisfied rather than frightening them when they post warnings and weather statements. But yeah looks like we may see some instability conductive for a rumble or two in the GTA Thursday..winds and rain will be the highlight for Halloween.

[Geos]

Definitely going to see the decent shear pushing into southern ON.

 

[JoMo]

Severe probs for Halloween

 

[Hoosier]

IND

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS THE THIRD ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND WHILE PROGGED INSTABILITY VALUES REMAIN MEAGER...THE STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ALONE ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THE THREAT. THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE SIMILARITIES TO PREVIOUS SYSTEMS THAT PRODUCED DAMAGING WINDS...WITH CIPS ANALOG HIGHLIGHTING THE SEPT 20 2000 AND OCT 24 2001 EVENTS AS REASONABLE MATCHES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY VALUES WERE BOTH GREATER FOR BOTH OF THESE EVENTS THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

BL SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 80KTS BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING WITH 0-3KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES IN EXCESS OF 700 M2/S2 AND 0-1KM HELICITIES IN THE 400-500 M2/S2 RANGE NEAR 00Z FRIDAY. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN A CLASSIC HIGH SHEAR/LOW INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW TOPPED SQUALL LINE OR QLCS IMPACTING THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND EXPECTED RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE LINE /50-60MPH/ SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH TO ACCOMPANY THE LINE. FURTHERMORE...THE PRESENCE OF SUCH HIGH STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES IS SUPPORTIVE OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR QUICK SPIN-UP TORNADOES. GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE SHEAR/HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGHEST AND MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY MORE PREVALENT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE HWO.

[Hoosier]

Day 2 Slight risk expanded into parts of southern MI. Still concerned about instability or lack of but strong flow off the deck may mean that it won't take much organization to bring down strong/marginally severe gusts.

[wxdudemike]

Day 2 Slight risk expanded into parts of southern MI. Still concerned about instability or lack of but strong flow off the deck may mean that it won't take much organization to bring down strong/marginally severe gusts.

 

Yeah, I'm thinking this far north along the I-70 cooridor into Ohio we may see more widespread 40-50 mph gusts.  Depending on instability, some isolated severe gusts are plausible.  But I don't see a significant 60+ mph event.  Down south is a different story...

[Hoosier]

Yeah, I'm thinking this far north along the I-70 cooridor into Ohio we may see more widespread 40-50 mph gusts. Depending on instability, some isolated severe gusts are plausible. But I don't see a significant 60+ mph event. Down south is a different story...

This system has quite a bit going for it in terms of severe potential...unforunately (for severe weather fans) the big negative factor is the meager instability. I'm kinda skeptical on the whole but we'll see what happens. These setups where either the instability or shear is greatly lacking can be tougher to figure as there are outlier cases that manage to produce sig severe/tornadoes.

[IWXwx]

This system has quite a bit going for it in terms of severe potential...unforunately (for severe weather fans) the big negative factor is the meager instability. I'm kinda skeptical on the whole but we'll see what happens. These setups where either the instability or shear is greatly lacking can be tougher to figure as there are outlier cases that manage to produce sig severe/tornadoes.

 

I am inclined to believe that we'll see some wind damage reports up here. It's looking a lot like the Oct 2010 storm. Expecting to see a line of low topped convection with scattered spinups.

[snowlord81]

00z SPC WRF has a nice squall line/QLCS moving through Indiana and Ohio tomorrow evening. If its a well developed line, there should be no problem mixing down some of the strong winds aloft.

[Stebo]

The 06z NAM/RAP and the HRRR models all show a window of clearing for Central and Southern Illinois down to Memphis around early to mid afternoon, if that window does occur and there is partial sunshine that will be the area I would be watching especially as the cold front moves in, it could very well light up in that area and continue northeast from those regions.