IsentropicLift Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 12z GEFS ensemble mean has the coastal day 10-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Blizzard for Toronto day 8 on the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 How about our day 10 bomb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 How about our day 10 bomb? Doesn't exist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 How about our day 10 bomb? Primary stays strong, cutter into SE Canada this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Monmouth County foliage season 2013: http://www.americanw...ge-season-2013/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Doesn't exist Shocker!! A cutter makes more sense though with the -PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Shocker!! A cutter makes more sense though with the -PNA. You're right. I should have thought of that earlier, but makes sense now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Surprised nobody commented on the 00z GFS. Not much precip but certainly chilly as we head into mid nov with several cold shots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 0z ggem shows the scenario that the 0z euro showed from last night. The ggem snowmap shows snow to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 00z euro shows big cold outbreak incoming around 174. -12 850's extending a across central NY. 1032-1036 high nosing in from the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Next Wednesday fails to get out of the 30's for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Next Wednesday fails to get out of the 30's for most '_' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Euro even tries to get some overrunning in here 198-216 with temps close to freezing (and below freezing in the near NW burbs). It is pretty light however probably around 0.1-0.15 but it would likely be frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 0z ggem shows the scenario that the 0z euro showed from last night. The ggem snowmap shows snow to the coast. I'm embarrassed to post this, but: 0Z GGEM total snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 The Euro ensemble mean is really bullish on that big Arctic high sliding down over the area next week with strong low level CAA followed by good radiational cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 The Euro ensemble mean is really bullish on that big Arctic high sliding down over the area next week with strong low level CAA followed by good radiational cooling. Isn't eastern Canada well snow covered? That must be aiding in the ability for this airmass to maintain its strength. Haven't seen shots of cold come straight down from Canada aimed right at us in a long time. Usually they've been swinging in from the northwest or even worse, the west. Reminds me of 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Isn't eastern Canada well snow covered? That must be aiding in the ability for this airmass to maintain its strength. Haven't seen shots of cold come straight down from Canada aimed right at us in a long time. Usually they've been swinging in from the northwest or even worse, the west. Reminds me of 2004. The main reason that we are seeing these strong Arctic highs build down over the area has been the strong -EPO pattern. Arctic highs build under strong upper ridging near Alaska and slide down over the Lakes and Northeast. January 2004 was a great example of this when we got down to 1 degree with the high positioned perfectly for northerly winds that didn't have to pass over the Great Lakes first. Monday was good enough for JFK to tie the record of 34 and Newark to make down to freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 New NAO outlook shows a possibility of a negative NAO after mid month http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif New PNA outlook shows a rising PNA possibly reaching positive territory after mid month http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif New AO Outlook shows the possibility of a negative AO after mid month http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif ** very positive signal here if you like colder weather and to break this dry pattern we have been in the last couple of months ** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 0z ggem shows the scenario that the 0z euro showed from last night. The ggem snowmap shows snow to the coast. Are you referring to the small event around day 7 or the bigger event potential around day ten? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Are you referring to the small event around day 7 or the bigger event potential around day ten? That map spells rain for most us. But I would be hesitant to jump quickly onto any solutions that depict an extremely moisture-laden storm moving out of the GOM at this time. The flow across the south has been a fast west to east flow. In addition, there has been little energy in the subtropical jet. In order to get a major event we will need a sharp trough in the polar jet in the east. I see hints, but no hard evidence of that happening anytime soon. That said, there is some really cold, possibly record cold air getting ready to be drawn se-ward in the wake of a cold front early next week. I would not be surprised to seem some record low temperatures here with that airmass. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 That map spells rain for most us. But I would be hesitant to jump quickly onto any solutions that depict an extremely moisture-laden storm moving out of the GOM at this time. The flow across the south has been a fast west to east flow. In addition, there has been little energy in the subtropical jet. In order to get a major event we will need a sharp trough in the polar jet in the east. I see hints, but no hard evidence of that happening anytime soon. That said, there is some really cold, possibly record cold air getting ready to be drawn se-ward in the wake of a cold front early next week. I would not be surprised to seem some record low temperatures here with that airmass. WX/PT The evolution of the storm on the GGEM verbatim originates from the Rockies and then cuts to Lake Erie before a secondary pops inland over North Carolina which then comes due north. It may not be snow at the coast but it's a big snow event for inland sections. Of course this is all just fantasy land, but it's fun to have something to look at for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 New NAO outlook shows a possibility of a negative NAO after mid month http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif New PNA outlook shows a rising PNA possibly reaching positive territory after mid month http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif New AO Outlook shows the possibility of a negative AO after mid month http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif ** very positive signal here if you like colder weather and to break this dry pattern we have been in the last couple of months ** The PV retrograding to the Pacific Side, causing the AO and NAO to drop and even PNA to rise. But it's not a cold pattern at all. Last year we had -AO and -NAO, and December averaged mild: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 The evolution of the storm on the GGEM verbatim originates from the Rockies and then cuts to Lake Erie before a secondary pops inland over North Carolina which then comes due north. It may not be snow at the coast but it's a big snow event for inland sections. Of course this is all just fantasy land, but it's fun to have something to look at for once. The GFS generated it out of the Gulf. To me, it doesn't make sense. We're going to get cold, then warm up and rain, maybe some inland spots start out with a little frozen if even that. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Snow next week on the GFS for most areas. Definitely seems possible based on how next week will transpire. After that passes I think we torch the week after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 ummm Snow next Weds on 12z GFS...didn't expect that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 GFS is a pretty weenie-tastic run, even if its in la-la land. Pops a -NAO and we go into the freezer . The cold shot next week seems formidable, however, and that is only 5-6 days away. Given the cold conditions and snow cover over much of canada that cold shot does not have much time to moderate. It's very doubtful we see any meaningful snow next week (if any at all?) but the fact that we can even be tracking something is cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 The models all agree on the big Arctic high building down, but can't get a handle yet on exactly how the shortwave energy cuts underneath. Par for the course with a potential record breaking Pacific blocking pattern in place. Extreme 500 mb anomalies often time have some interesting downstream effects. The GFS is going +550 meters for that huge amplification out near the Aleutians. That's why the model solutions are swinging back and forth between runs for storm details which such a major jet buckling upstream of North America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 GFS is a pretty weenie-tastic run, even if its in la-la land. Pops a -NAO and we go into the freezer . The cold shot next week seems formidable, however, and that is only 5-6 days away. Given the cold conditions and snow cover over much of canada that cold shot does not have much time to moderate. It's very doubtful we see any meaningful snow next week (if any at all?) but the fact that we can even be tracking something is cool. Except that every week for the past month its given us a solid 1" rainstorm and every time it gets within 1-2 days of the event its down to .1-.2" if we're lucky. I really trust nothing precip wise on the models until within a couple days of the event in this dry pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 My weenie snow maps for the 12z GFS show over 30" for eastern PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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