November 2013 Observations & Discussions

[Kaner587]

12z euro looks much better at day 10 then 00z. I think that the pattern likely relaxes with temps returning to normal or slightly below. The problem is that any storm we get during the next 10-14 days LOOKS like it'll probably be rain for most. What is encouraging is to see the cold that is centered in the western canada and PAC NW bleed east on the 12z euro. We will likely have a gradient pattern, which has been advertised by several mets, especially in the SNE forum. What that means for us remains to be seen. Most likely some chances at frozen, and the solid possibility we walk away at the end of Dec with some snow, although no major frozen storms until the gradient drops south. If this patterns stays in place then we could hope that January would be forgiving in the snow dept. All in all, I don't expect any major torches, although the weak SE ridge signal we have in the med to long range is a wild card, as if this trends stronger, well you know the result. 

[NEXtreme]

There are some mets out there saying the same thing.

Larry Cosgrove:

Weather food for thought....

By the looks of it (vast Alaska Rex block, positive height anomaly just below Greenland, humongous cAk vortex covering much of Canada), we should have a rather exciting weather pattern coming up. Look for energy from near Baja California to merge with a digging impulse through the Intermountain Region. If the computer models (especially the ensemble packages) are right, an important cyclogenesis event in south central Texas on or around December 6 will head along the Gulf Coast, then up the Eastern Seaboard. There is a -chance- for both a significant precipitation event and broad intrusion of bitter cold air -if- teleconnections in the Pacific and Atlantic Basins play out like I think they will.

[NEXtreme]

Both 12z runs of the GFS and EURO showing arctic air returning by next week.

[atownwxwatcher]

 

Looks like the coldest air will be to the west as things moderate in the east....

[doncat]

Even with todays rain this will still be the driest fall here in 32 years of record with 5.84 in. Old record was 6.19 in 2001.

[donsutherland1]

With yesterday's high temperature of 35°, November 2013 has had three maximum temperatures less than 40°. The last November with at least three such readings was 2008 (5). November 2013 has also had two maximum temperatures of 35° or below. The last November with at least as many was 1996 (2).

[Absolute Humidity]

"The last November with at least as many was 1996 (2)."

 

  Hopefully a better winter this go around than 96 - 97.

[uncle W]

With yesterday's high temperature of 35°, November 2013 has had three maximum temperatures less than 40°. The last November with at least three such readings was 2008 (5). November 2013 has also had two maximum temperatures of 35° or below. The last November with at least as many was 1996 (2).

This November will have nine days with a min. 32 or lower...2009, 2010 and 2011 had no days 32 or lower...

[bluewave]

November will make 17 out of the last 23 months with below normal precipitation at NYC.

 

This November to date: 

TOTAL FOR MONTH: 3.15

DPTR FM NORMAL:-0.58

 

1-12....Below

2-12....Below

3-12....Below

4-12....Below

5-12....Above

6-12....Below

7-12....Below

8-12....Below

9-12....Above

10-12..Below

11-12..Below

12-12..Above

1-13....Below

2-13....Above

3-13....Below

4-13....Below

5-13....Above

6-13....Above

7-13....Below

8-13....Below

9-13....Below

10-13..Below

11-13..Below

[doncat]

Temp departure here this month was -2.7 degrees which makes it the 6th coldest Nov during 36 years of record. Fall season precip of 5.85 in. is the driest on record.