famartin Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Lows: NYC 23 LGA 24 JFK 23 TEB 22 EWR 21 LDJ 22 HPN 20 CDW 17 FRG 21 MMU 12 ISP 21 BLM 19 SMQ 16 DXR 15 BDR 18 12N 15 FWN 13 SWF 18 HWV 20 MGJ 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 doesn't mean we won't see a repeat of the last 2 days of frigid temps in early december - BUT with no blocking the storms cut to our west unless there is a clipper that is involved in the northwest flow when it occurs which is always a possibility - but Miller A's need that blocking to lock the cold in along the coast -most of the time - could be a great period for the ohio valley and midwest though. Frigid cold only to warm up and rain is not going to make a lot of people happy. In fact I bet many would rather blowtorch than have to deal with that, I know I would. Unless we're talking near record cold, I would eventually want some snow along with it. At least Thanksgiving will still be cold, do prefer it to be cold for the holidays at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Frigid cold only to warm up and rain is not going to make a lot of people happy. In fact I bet many would rather blowtorch than have to deal with that, I know I would. Unless we're talking near record cold, I would eventually want some snow along with it. At least Thanksgiving will still be cold, do prefer it to be cold for the holidays at least. The 18 last night at BDR was a record... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 BTW, not really this forum (yet, anyway), but assuming there were no others record lows this year... this mornings record at PHL is the first since May 21st, 2002. I hadn't realized that it had been so long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 It's all part of the pattern shift this year toward dominant Pacific blocking from the Atlantic in 2012. 13.gif 12.gif Yeah it seems like the general theme of a back and forth type pattern of cooler/warmer than normal regimes looks to persist with neither locing in for any prolonged periods. In other words overall cool 11/23 - 11/30 followed by overall above normal lkely the first week of Dec. With smaller spurts of back and forths embedded within those weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 And so it begins. 12z ECMWF has a completely southern stream driven low off the SE coast December 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Yeah it seems like the general theme of a back and forth type pattern of cooler/warmer than normal regimes looks to persist with neither locing in for any prolonged periods. In other words overall cool 11/23 - 11/30 followed by overall above normal lkely the first week of Dec. With smaller spurts of back and forths embedded within those weeks. most of the analogs on my radar had a mild week the first half of December...60+ is possible if it's an all out torch...if it's like 1964 we'll have a mild Christmas...If it's like 1961 it will be white...Timing is everything especially in December... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 And so it begins. 12z ECMWF has a completely southern stream driven low off the SE coast December 3rd. Dont spend too much energy on it , That TROUGH axis is too far west , look at that trough off the west coast . Anything that climbs the coast WILL EASILY draw in warm air . And if theres a slight doubt , just look at the lack of blocking and that should close it out for you , one can look at the set up and see the pattern doesnt fit what we all want . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Dont spend too much energy on it , That ridge axis is too far west , look at that trough off the west coast . Anything that climbs the coast WILL EASILY draw in warm air . And if theres a slight doubt , just look at the lack of blocking and that should close it out for you , one can look at the set up and see the pattern doesnt fit what we all want . I'm posting banter, calm down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I'm posting banter, calm down. Dude , Relax yourself , the point was its a bad pattern , I could care less what u do . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 And so it begins. 12z ECMWF has a completely southern stream driven low off the SE coast December 3rd. And unfortunately there's absolutely no cold air left in the eastern US. We are mild. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 If the EPO stays largely negative, we could still do ok even under a neutral or positive NAO as long as it's not strongly positive. With the cold staying in Canada and the northern tier, we will have a nice region of cold air that will gradually keep pushing south through December and into Jan and Feb. We might get a lot of SWFE which of course could be good or bad for us. If we get any short term blocking then our snow chances go way up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 And unfortunately there's absolutely no cold air left in the eastern US. We are mild. WX/PT The whole system is a joke. No way that a low could amplify up the coast like that with a huge trough in the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 The whole system is a joke. No way that a low could amplify up the coast like that with a huge trough in the West. Still, no one should talk up a snow threat until the troughs and cold can somehow be locked into place. In a progressive pattern like this, the Midwest, lakes, and Northern New England are favored. Frustrating, but that's why we need the real -NAO (not a transient, east based one). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 The whole system is a joke. No way that a low could amplify up the coast like that with a huge trough in the West. Don't worry about it. It's only a model. A low can move up the coast with a trough in the west. If you have an active southern stream and high heights in the western Altantic it can happen though it's not common. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Don't worry about it. It's only a model. A low can move up the coast with a trough in the west. If you have an active southern stream and high heights in the western Altantic it can happen though it's not common. WX/PT And it can snow in May, I get it. I was just pointing this out because it's the next system we have to watch. Tomorrow was once a day ten event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 The 12z ECMWF ensemble mean has the day 9 coastal low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Latest guidance continues to show troughing into the west and some ridging along the east coast into the northeast as we head into December. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/test8.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 with the talk of 3" of rain possible here are the wettest storms for November... ...amount...year...dates 9.19"..........1977 11/7-8 5.60"..........1972 11/8 4.23"..........1963 11/6-7 3.75"..........1889 11/8-9 3.62"..........2006 11/7-8 3.38"..........1988 11/19-20 3.37"..........1910 11/3-4 3.19"..........1892 11/15-16 3.09"..........1889 11/27-28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 last two day departures Nyc -18,-16 Lga -18,-15 Jfk -18, -14 Ewr -17, -15 Bdr -16, -15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 last two day departures Nyc -18,-16 Lga -18,-15 Jfk -18, -14 Ewr -17, -15 Bdr -16, -15 You don't see that too often anymore, I think it already puts them in between -1 and -2 for the month. Also thinking models will show a more progressive pattern instead of holding the cold further west because I only see some weak SE ridging to provide a little bit of resistance to it. That Alaskan ridge looks very impressive and if it holds will ensure many more cold air masses this winter. I wonder if that ridging could shift a bit further east and begin to act as a weak west based -NAO block heading forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 The latest run of the Euro ensembles are showing slightly above normal temps to start December. The cold dropping down into the West will probably filter east for week 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 You don't see that too often anymore, I think it already puts them in between -1 and -2 for the month. Also thinking models will show a more progressive pattern instead of holding the cold further west because I only see some weak SE ridging to provide a little bit of resistance to it. That Alaskan ridge looks very impressive and if it holds will ensure many more cold air masses this winter. I wonder if that ridging could shift a bit further east and begin to act as a weak west based -NAO block heading forward. That EPO block is impressive and could bring us arctic outbreaks, which have been largely absent in recent winters. NYC hasn't had a below zero reading since January 1994. The average winter low has gone from 5F to around 11F, which has a significant impact on plant life and potentially viruses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 New Brunswick broke a record last night. 17 for the low and 18 was the record in 1989 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 I looked for years with a warm October and cold November...I chose years with an October near or over 60.0 degrees and a November with an average under 46.0... year......Oct...Nov... 1920...61.1 44.4 1947...63.6 44.2 1955...59.8 44.3 1959...59.8 45.8 1971...62.7 45.1 1995...61.6 43.6 2007...63.6 45.4 five of the seven had KU events the following winter...Four of the seven had well above average snowfall...one was well below average...two had slightly below average snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 And it can snow in May, I get it. I was just pointing this out because it's the next system we have to watch. Tomorrow was once a day ten event. No, a low moving up the east coast with a trough in the west is NOT nearly as uncommon as snow in May, not even close! WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 The Euro weeklies are going with a December gradient pattern for us with temperatures close to normal and not much snow potential the next several weeks. The big -EPO/-PNA signature will probably keep the coldest departures to our west with colder temps moving east from time to time.The best chances for record cold in this pattern will be out near Montana to the Plains. The NAEFS are in good agreement with the Euro. http://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2013/11/25/ecmwf-weekly-charts/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Second half of december with an ugly southeast ridge on those maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 I just want to see how things play out because remember we all thought November would end up mild, but it instead will end up below normal by a good margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 The Euro weeklies are going with a December gradient pattern for us with temperatures close to normal and not much snow potential the next several weeks. The big -EPO/-PNA signature will probably keep the coldest departures to our west with colder temps moving east from time to time.The best chances for record cold in this pattern will be out near Montana to the Plains. The NAEFS are in good agreement with the Euro. http://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2013/11/25/ecmwf-weekly-charts/ 2013112600_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_198.png Typical Nina pattern. We really need for the waters of the equatorial East Pacific to warm significantly for us to have a shot at a decent winter. Blocking doesn't look like it will pan out for us anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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