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November 2013 Observations & Discussions


Rtd208

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Courtesy of don

Albany: 24°, 1938

Bridgeport: 35°, 2000

Danbury: 32°, 1970

Islip: 34°, 1989

New York City:

...Central Park: 30°, 1880

...JFK: 35°, 1970

...LGA: 34°, 1956

Newark: 34°, 1938

Poughkeepsie: 32°, 1989

Trenton: 37°, 2000

White Plains: 31°, 1972

A good amount will fall on this list

NYC 31 at 1151

Lga 32

JFK 32

Ewr 29 (congrats forky)

Bdr 31

Ttn 31

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The long range GFS is very interesting. Obv should be taken with a grain of salt but the pattern overall looks about as good as you can ask for the beginning of meteorologic winter. It seems like the west coast ridge/east coast trough stays in place through the 16 days. The nice thing is this has Ensemble support from GEFS as well as the euro. Several storm chances and below to well below normal temps. I think winter gets off to an exciting start. How much snow we actually finish this period off with remains to be seen but I certainly like our chances.

...bastardi and j.deleo (weatherbell) are looking at the same thing in

bastardi's weekly video.calling for a 30-45 day stretch w/ below avg temps..their not sure when,

but maybe its sooner than later!

24*.very windy..here in eastport

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This air mass is even more impressive considering that it had to travel over entirely unfrozen and probably still 40 F or better Great Lakes. Had the Lakes had January conditions (either open water with water temps just above freezing or ice covered) the temps in NYC area would likely be 5 to 10 degrees colder than they are now.

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Don, how to do cold Novembers usually fare for snow for NYC analog-wise?

 

The results are mixed. For all Novembers with a mean temperature below 45°, median seasonal snowfall was 23.8". 42% of such winters featured < 20" snowfall, 58% 20" or more. 26% had 30" or more.

 

For all Novembers with at least one high temperature of 32° or below, median snowfall was 30.0". 29% of such winters had < 20" snowfall and 71% had 20" or more. 52% had 30" or more.

 

A possible indication of 30" or more seasonal snowfall (from those cases with cold November maximum readings) was 6" or more snow in either November or December. 64% of the winters following those cold maximum temperatures that met that criteria received 30" or more seasonal snowfall.

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The results are mixed. For all Novembers with a mean temperature below 45°, median seasonal snowfall was 23.8". 42% of such winters featured < 20" snowfall, 58% 20" or more. 26% had 30" or more.

 

For all Novembers with at least one high temperature of 32° or below, median snowfall was 30.0". 29% of such winters had < 20" snowfall and 71% had 20" or more. 52% had 30" or more.

 

A possible indication of 30" or more seasonal snowfall (from those cases with cold November maximum readings) was 6" or more snow in either November or December. 64% of the winters following those cold maximum temperatures that met that criteria received 30" or more seasonal snowfall.

one of those winters was 1964-65 and it only had a 3" snowfall around Dec. 20th...It had a cold and snowy January and 24.4" of snow in Central Park for the season but around 30" in other parts of the city...Christmas 1964 was warm...it was near 70 in Newark Christmas day...After five straight Christmas's with snow on the ground it came as a shock to me...

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Longer term 0z control run and the GFS are in some agreement. For 1 they agree weds system mayb a drought breaker , secondly both paint a trough axis too far west so even though they both want to run 2 wet systems in between 2 below normal periods NE at us , without blocking coastal plain is easily warmed .

Just the models 1 st guess but something to b looking for .

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Longer term 0z control run and the GFS are in some agreement. For 1 they agree weds system mayb a drought breaker , secondly both paint a trough axis too far west so even though they both want to run 2 wet systems in between 2 below normal periods NE at us , without blocking coastal plain is easily warmed .

Just the models 1 st guess but something to b looking for .

 

That's going to be a problem for sure. It's the dreaded cold, rain, cold pattern where temperatures could be below to well below normal but you still don't get much if any snow.

 

Temperatures struggling to hit 30F, I'm at 28F by Old Bridge. 

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