SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 But the models also overestimate the cold. I'd be surprised if NYC got below 23-24 and Sunday will most likely be in the mid 30s along the coast. You mean mid 30s for Sunday afternoon I assume? Well I have NYC getting to around 20-21 as of right now and highs will likely be below freezing for the city. We'll just have to see I guess what the observed outcome is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Teens at TTN in November was an every-other year occurrence during the 80s and 90s. Hasn't happened since 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 The 4k 18z NAM has lower teens possible NW of NYC with single digit lows for the Poconos on Sunday night. Upper teens for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Lowest Nov temp at this station during past 35 years is 17 set back in 1987. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 The winds look to calm down to less than 10kts overnight. If the winds are only a few MPH, it is possible with 850 temps down to -17. 18z NAM Bukfit out LGA mixes down 15kt+ winds until 11z Monday. 850mb temps are rising overnight too. I find the NAM often a few degrees too high for NYC lows. I like lower 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 It's hard to believe but NYC has not had a record low in the month of November since 1986 and none in the 2nd half of the month since 1938. Monday's record low is 19, which could be close but probably will miss by a couple degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 It's hard to believe but NYC has not had a record low in the month of November since 1986 and none in the 2nd half of the month since 1938. Monday's record low is 19, which could be close but probably will miss by a couple degrees. November is the longest. No records in December since 1988... February since 1990... September since 1993... August since 1994... June since 1995... April since 1997... October since 1999... July since 2001... May since 2002... March since 2003... January since 2004... This January it will be 10 years since the last record low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 i doubt any of the metro airports hit record lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 i doubt any of the metro airports hit record lows I think it'll be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I'll take an early guess that JFK will get down to 24-25 Monday morning and finish in second to third place for the date. The strongest CAA will be Sunday when the dews may drop below 0 and afternoon temps struggle to get above 32. 11/25 22 in 2005 24 in 2000 26 in 1993 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I'm on my phone so I can't look myself, but what's the timing of the cold air? Are we expected to have a midnight high greater than say 32-34 degrees, or is the front modeled to be fast enough so that we have a legit chance at staying below freezing all day on Sunday for the city and the nearby burbs?? If it's gonna be bitterly cold anyway, I'm hoping we can at least set some record low maximums around the area on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 The latest guidance continues to indicate the record low maximum temperatures for November 24 will be challenged and possibly exceeded in places. Albany: 18z MOS: 26°F Existing record: 24°, 1938 Years with highs below 30°: 5 Years with highs of 32° or below: 13 Years with highs below 35°: 19 Length of record: 1874-2012 (threaded) Islip: 18z MOS: 36°F Existing record: 34°, 1989 Years with highs of 32° or below: 0 Years with highs below 35°: 1 Length of record: 1984-2012 New York City: 18z MOS: 33°F Existing record: 30°, 1880 Years with highs of 32° or below: 1 Years with highs below 35°: 3 Length of record: 1871-2012 (threaded) Poughkeepsie: 18z MOS: 31°F Existing record: 32°, 1989 Years with highs of 32° or below: 1 Years with highs below 35°: 5 Length of record: 1948-2012 White Plains: 18z MOS: 33°F Existing record: 31°, 1972 Years with highs of 32° or below: 2 Years with highs below 35°: 3 Length of record: 1946-2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I'm on my phone so I can't look myself, but what's the timing of the cold air? Are we expected to have a midnight high greater than say 32-34 degrees, or is the front modeled to be fast enough so that we have a legit chance at staying below freezing all day on Sunday for the city and the nearby burbs?? If it's gonna be bitterly cold anyway, I'm hoping we can at least set some record low maximums around the area on Sunday. Its gonna be close. MOS says it will still be above freezing at midnight at NYC, but raw model output 2 m temps say it will already be below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 We may see the driest conditions here in late November since 2005 if the dewpoints drop below zero like the MOS is showing. I think that afternoon temperatures on Sunday will struggle to get above 32 and winds will be gusting over 40 mph with a mixed layer to around 700 mb. When we had such deep mixing a few weeks back, the gusts at the local airports exceeded guidance. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KJFK/2005/11/24/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA DPT 27 23 20 17 14 14 13 10 7 1 -2 -3 -1 4 6 7 7 7 7 11 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 We may see the driest conditions here in late November since 2005 if the dewpoints drop below zero like the MOS is showing. I think that afternoon temperatures on Sunday will struggle to get above 32 and winds will be gusting over 40 mph with a mixed layer to around 700 mb. When we had such deep mixing a few weeks back, the gusts at the local airports exceeded guidance. the Giants/Dallas game at the Meadowlands is going to be decided on the ground tomorrow with those winds and bitter wind chills also maybe a few frozen noses inthe stands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 the Giants/Dallas game at the Meadowlands is going to be decided on the ground tomorrow with those winds and bitter wind chills also maybe a few frozen noses inthe stands where's Joe Namath when we need him...The winds at Shea never bother him...the kicking game will be effected...This cold wave will probably be the coldest November outbreak since 1987 or at least 2005 and 2008 levels... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 12Z NAM is an inland runner - way west of GFS http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2013112312/namconus_shear_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 NYC recent largest rainfalls - not many over 1 inch 11/18: 0.22 11/7: 0.13 11/1: 0.13 10/7: 0.25 9/22: 0.45 9/21: 0.73 9/12: 1.76 8/28: 0.43 8/22: 0.25 8/13: 0.85 8/1: 0.65 7/28: 0.24 7/23: 0.21 7/5: 0.53 7/1: 0.84 6/13: 1.26 6/10: 1.38 6/7: 4.16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 NYC recent largest rainfalls - not many over 1 inch 11/18: 0.22 11/7: 0.13 11/1: 0.13 10/7: 0.25 9/22: 0.45 9/21: 0.73 9/12: 1.76 8/28: 0.43 8/22: 0.25 8/13: 0.85 8/1: 0.65 7/28: 0.24 7/23: 0.21 7/5: 0.53 7/1: 0.84 6/13: 1.26 6/10: 1.38 6/7: 4.16 The last real rain we had here locally was the remnants of Andrea on 6/7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 12Z NAM is an inland runner - way west of GFS http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2013112312/namconus_shear_us.html We'll see, I would think that idea will be wrong, but it might be right. Looks like the GFS is going to be WELL east that, maybe OTS. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 We'll see, I would think that idea will be wrong, but it might be right. Looks like the GFS is going to be WELL east that, maybe OTS. WX/PT Yep not just east but has 0.00 precip for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Yep not just east but has 0.00 precip for us If and when (I suspect this afternoon or tonight) the Euro starts to look like this, Boreas will be abandoned at least here in the northeast. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Using their name only makes them look good. Stop. For the love of god Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 NYC recent largest rainfalls - not many over 1 inch 11/18: 0.22 11/7: 0.13 11/1: 0.13 10/7: 0.25 9/22: 0.45 9/21: 0.73 9/12: 1.76 8/28: 0.43 8/22: 0.25 8/13: 0.85 8/1: 0.65 7/28: 0.24 7/23: 0.21 7/5: 0.53 7/1: 0.84 6/13: 1.26 6/10: 1.38 6/7: 4.16 16 out of the last 22 months at NYC since 1-12 have had below normal precipitation. 1-12....Below 2-12....Below 3-12....Below 4-12....Below 5-12....Above 6-12....Below 7-12....Below 8-12....Below 9-12....Above 10-12..Below 11-12..Below 12-12..Above 1-13....Below 2-13....Above 3-13....Below 4-13....Below 5-13....Above 6-13....Above 7-13....Below 8-13....Below 9-13....Below 10-13..Below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 12z gfs had gotten colder for Sunday and Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I think it's a lock we still below freezing Sunday during the day, I don't know about that midnight high but I think 30F max for NYC tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 ECMWF continues to beat the preferable drum in the long range. The end of the first week in December looking prime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Select Record Low Maximum Temperatures for 11/24: Albany: 24°, 1938 Bridgeport: 35°, 2000 Danbury: 32°, 1970 Islip: 34°, 1989 New York City: ...Central Park: 30°, 1880 ...JFK: 35°, 1970 ...LGA: 34°, 1956 Newark: 34°, 1938 Poughkeepsie: 32°, 1989 Trenton: 37°, 2000 White Plains: 31°, 1972 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Possible squalls from the lakes tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Select Record Low Maximum Temperatures for 11/24: Albany: 24°, 1938 Bridgeport: 35°, 2000 Danbury: 32°, 1970 Islip: 34°, 1989 New York City: ...Central Park: 30°, 1880 ...JFK: 35°, 1970 ...LGA: 34°, 1956 Newark: 34°, 1938 Poughkeepsie: 32°, 1989 Trenton: 37°, 2000 White Plains: 31°, 1972 Trenton dataset is mixed so you have to manually thread... its at least 33 in 1956. (I didn't check all years, just the ones you listed) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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