IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 TWC brought up a good point: http://www.weather.com/news/history-repeating-itself-november-1963-2013-thanksgiving-20131120?hootPostID=a3a68f098203706bd027f5c9f6884555 Obviously we wont see a 975 mB LP barreling near NJ, but a weaker version of the 1963 nor'easter may surface, if it gains computer model guidance support for the next 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 It's impressive to see a piece of the polar vortex break off and drop down into New England this time of year. The ensembles are showing that this will be greater than a -450 meter anomaly. We'll have to watch to see how how strong the LLJ gets on Sunday since the models are hinting at the mixed depth reaching 700 mb. The wind gust potential looks to increase the further NE you go toward Southern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 It's impressive to see a piece of the polar vortex break off and drop down into New England this time of year. The ensembles are showing that this will be greater than a -450 meter anomaly. We'll have to watch to see how how strong the LLJ gets on Sunday since the models are hinting at the mixed depth reaching 700 mb. The wind gust potential looks to increase the further NE you go toward Southern New England. NH_GPA_500mb_084.gif snd.gif The 12z NAM today shows it having a hard time getting past 30 for a high on Sunday, and likely just as cold for Monday. With strong wind gusts that would just be brutally cold for this time of year. I can't remember it ever being below freezing for 48 straight hours potentially before Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 12z euro has some light snow sunday night for long island, a inverted trough signature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 12z euro has some light snow sunday night for long island, a inverted trough signature Time for a new thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The Euro essentially reloads the pattern post day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 very cold for turkey day, highs stay below frz. Sundog has to like these early cold temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Departures to 11/20 Nyc -0.6 Lga -1.0 Ewr -0.9 Jfk -0.7 With the up coming cold coming we will finish below normal for the month. Perhaps this will be our greatest neg departure month all year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Departures to date Nyc -0.6 Lga -1.0 Ewr -0.9 Jfk -0.7 With the up coming cold coming we will finish below normal for the month. Perhaps this will be our greatest neg departure month all year? Could be, but I thought August was -2 or something of that sort? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Could be, but I thought August was -2 or something of that sort? Just looked only ewr finished below -1……the 3 others around normal. That will be easy to beat, -8 today at central park. The calls for a warm november busted hard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 very cold for turkey day, highs stay below frz. Sundog has to like these early cold temps. Best case scenario would have been to at a minimum coat the ground and then unleash the cold but I'll take what I can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The 12z NAM today shows it having a hard time getting past 30 for a high on Sunday, and likely just as cold for Monday. With strong wind gusts that would just be brutally cold for this time of year. I can't remember it ever being below freezing for 48 straight hours potentially before Thanksgiving. I hope not too windy sunday morning. I have a flight to florida at 730am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
threeyoda Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 How is the wind looking for the parade Thanksgiving morning? I wonder if the balloons will be able to be used. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 How is the wind looking for the parade Thanksgiving morning? I wonder if the balloons will be able to be used. Looks pretty breezy if the storm pans out. 20-25mph sustained winds per Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 NAM has us in the mid 20's sunday afternoon….wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 if we see temperatures in the teens next week it will be the first time NYC saw temps in the teens since 1987...Before that was in 1976...before that was in 1958 and 1955...I found 21 years that had temps in the teens in November...two years were 1917 and 1933...The winter that followed had temps -13 and -15...the two coldest days on record for NYC...1880 had the longest cold wave for November and it had below zero temps during the winter twice...all three years had -6 or lower at the end of December and early Feb....1976-77 was another very cold winter with teens in November...-2 in January...There are some warm winters that followed cold November days...1929, 1930, 1932, 1936 had mild winters and no temps near zero those years...1987 was the last year to have a temp in the teens and January was very cold that year with a min of five...1955 and 1958 both had cold winters but no zero temps... the 21 Novembers with a day that had temps in the teens had six mild winters...seven average and eight cold...six of which were very cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 How's the winds for Saturday looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 0z GFS is cold for next week and beyond http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=knyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 The AO freefalled and is now down to -1. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 The nam does show many of us in the teens Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 The nam does show many of us in the teens Monday morning. The NAM is ridiculously cold, and I think it may be correct. If it is correct we are going into the teens, even in the city. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 The NAM is ridiculously cold, and I think it may be correct. If it is correct we are going into the teens, even in the city. WX/PT It has been years since we have been this cold in November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 The NAM is ridiculously cold, and I think it may be correct. If it is correct we are going into the teens, even in the city. WX/PT I'm little skeptical in the NYC. With gusty NW winds, most of the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 It's possible that NYC and eastern LI may not drop into the teens with a stiff NW wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I'm little skeptical in the NYC. With gusty NW winds, most of the night. The winds look to calm down to less than 10kts overnight. If the winds are only a few MPH, it is possible with 850 temps down to -17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 the nam is too cold. the gfs/euro keep the 18f isotherm in NW NJ monday morning while the nam drives it to philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 The NAM is ridiculously cold, and I think it may be correct. If it is correct we are going into the teens, even in the city. WX/PT How about outlying areas? Single digits anywhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 the nam is too cold. the gfs/euro keep the 18f isotherm in NW NJ monday morning while the nam drives it to philly Arctic air masses often overperform, so I wouldn't completely discount the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 the nam is too cold. the gfs/euro keep the 18f isotherm in NW NJ monday morning while the nam drives it to philly It may be too cold, but it could be the bare minimum of the temperature range. Light NW Winds and Clear skies before sunset can make the NAM verify pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Arctic air masses often overperform, so I wouldn't completely discount the Nam. But the models also overestimate the cold. I'd be surprised if NYC got below 23-24 and Sunday will most likely be in the mid 30s along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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