IsentropicLift Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 12Z GFS is coming in much more amplified with the trough over the deep south this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 gfs has light snow for the area tuesday 850's are below freezing but the surface freezing is displaced NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Classic Miller A storm track showing up on the 12z GFS. The energy is significantly stronger than 06z. Closes off at 500mb south of Dallas at hr 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 850's are below freezing but the surface freezing is displaced NW. Hr 168 had surface along 95, it would start out as some light snow. either way its to far away to really over analyze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Truncation occurring at hr 204. Precip almost up to ACY by hour 204. Trough over the deep south is amplified and a large storm encompasses the deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 No its def not, the flow is way to fast and no digging. its going out to sea, nothing classic about that Strongly disagree. Large storm coming up the coast on Thanksgiving. It's all rain but it's a large storm none the less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Hour 252 sub 1008mb low just SW of the benchmark. Moderate rain over the region. Heavy rain for New England. Surface freezing line about 150 miles NW of NYC. Big icing concerns for parts of Interior Upstate NY as the surface and 850mb freezing lines are displaced a couple hundred miles. I think as we move forward and get to the storm before truncation it will continue to look better and better. That is quite the abundance of energy down south. That kicker coming into the southwest could be a killer though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Hour 252 sub 1008mb low just SW of the benchmark. Moderate rain over the region. Heavy rain for New England. Surface freezing line about 150 miles NW of NYC. Big icing concerns for parts of Interior Upstate NY as the surface and 850mb freezing lines are displaced a couple hundred miles. I think as we move forward and get to the storm before truncation it will continue to look better and better. That is quite the abundance of energy down south. That kicker coming into the southwest could be a killer though. It's 240 hours away. At this point you're looking for a signal that there could be a storm, not on tracks, P-types, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 It's 240 hours away. At this point you're looking for a signal that there could be a storm, not on tracks, P-types, etc. Strongly disagree, the setup begins to evolve as early as day 5 over the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 The 12z GEFS ensemble mean is colder with the upcoming pattern than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Looks like the GGEM has quite the noreaster this run. Probably rain, precip type profiles didn't update yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 GGEM went from an inland storm to a coastal storm. It has been consistent in showing a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Surprisingly, we "jackpotted" with the rainfall here yesterday morning with 0.50". I'll take whatever we can get. That in combination with the 0.07" over the weekend nearly doubled our rainfall output over the past 8 weeks. Smithtown now has 2.84" for the S-O-N period as follows: September - 1.63" October - 0.19" November - 1.02" October was insanely dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 GGEM went from an inland storm to a coastal storm. It has been consistent in showing a storm. That's one hell of a storm as modeled. I would sign up for this any day of the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 The last time we had at least an inch of rain in a day or event was back on June 10 - 11. July was ok for rainfall (almost 4") but it's been a desert since then (we've only had about 4" total since July). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 That's one hell of a storm as modeled. I would sign up for this any day of the week isnt that a rainstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 The last time we had at least an inch of rain in a day or event was back on June 10 - 11. July was ok for rainfall (almost 4") but it's been a desert since then. One thing also is that NW areas haven't been nearly as dry and southeast areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 isnt that a rainstorm? Does it matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Strongly disagree, the setup begins to evolve as early as day 5 over the south. The signal now shows there could be a storm, but small changes in the orientation of the trough, strength of the upper air energy, any blocking, etc, makes a huge difference in where the storm tracks and impacts. Those are impossible to iron out 10 days ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 One thing also is that NW areas haven't been nearly as dry and southeast areas. Which is a good thing for NYC, because at historically average rainfall levels in the Catskill watershed, NYC draws down their drinking water faster than it is replaced. Nobody talks about this much, but without the increased rainfall averages over the past 30 years drinking water would be a bigger news item in NYC. If we ever go back to a more historically normal precipitation regime (even without a shorter term drought), it will make headlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 The signal now shows there could be a storm, but small changes in the orientation of the trough, strength of the upper air energy, any blocking, etc, makes a huge difference in where the storm tracks and impacts. Those are impossible to iron out 10 days ahead. Nobody is saying that anything is nailed down. Just simply pointing out that the storm signal exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 12z GGEM as modeled is front end dump well NW of the city, followed by rain, followed by back end change to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Which is a good thing for NYC, because at historically average rainfall levels in the Catskill watershed, NYC draws down their drinking water faster than it is replaced. Nobody talks about this much, but without the increased rainfall averages over the past 30 years drinking water would be a bigger news item in NYC. If we ever go back to a more historically normal precipitation regime (even without a shorter term drought), it will make headlines. One possible mitigating factor is that they have reduced consumption considerably over the past 30 years...possibly enough so to make my comment moot. I hadn't looked at consumption stats in a long time: https://nycopendata.socrata.com/Environment/Water-Consumption-In-The-New-York-City/ia2d-e54m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 What a temp change on the euro for this weekend. 510 line is south of NYC at hr 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 One possible mitigating factor is that they have reduced consumption considerably over the past 30 years...possibly enough so to make my comment moot. I hadn't looked at consumption stats in a long time: https://nycopendata.socrata.com/Environment/Water-Consumption-In-The-New-York-City/ia2d-e54m - higher water bills and bottled water lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 The ECMWF is not as amplified as the GFS or the GGEM with the upcoming pattern for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Euro is ots with the costal storm. Little preciep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Euro is ots with the costal storm. Little preciep It actually has some light snow NW of the city on the morning of the 27th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Give it time, it's making a recovery at hour 192. Lol how? It's way ots at hr 198. Still way out in time, will change a million times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 You could see early on what was going to happen. The Euro is slower than the rest of the guidance to break down the cut off low out west. Could be playing into its bias of holding back energy. Everything is slower to eject and the trough doesn't amplify fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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