atownwxwatcher Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 That's not true at all, it's a large storm and right now all that matters is that it still exists. Why do people feel the need to tear apart every post? 1007 Weak wave of low pressure...rainfall at that ...beyond 240 hours so way out there in fantasy land... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Now the GGEM on the other hand shows a large storm system effecting the area but then it is the GGEM which tends to blow every storm up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 That's not true at all, it's a large storm and right now all that matters is that it still exists. Why do people feel the need to tear apart every post? I agree, a week away. Even if we don't get snow it would be nice to get some rain, and to show we can still get moderate precip in this dry pattern. Who knows, maybe it will get colder and stronger, unlikely but not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Without any real blocking, this is a wash rinse repeat pattern but today the AO dipped down to 0.18 from 0.43 just three days ago and is forecast to go negative. So perhaps we could get something around Thanksgiving and beyond before it rises again after the 5 th or so of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 P6_GZ_D5_PN_228_0000.gif Now the GGEM on the other hand shows a large storm system effecting the area but then it is the GGEM which tends to blow every storm up.. That model has had some amazing consistency the last four runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Long range gfs hour 312, 1.00 qpf 850s south of Long Island whole time. This one (on this GFS run) has a possibility if any one system does so far. There is less to interfere with this than its predecessor. However, with northeasterly winds and warmer ocean early in the season, at best, I think you could hope for a snow to rain or mix then back to snow type event with some slushy accumulation. The surface temperatures should be marginal. That said, future runs will show us if there will be another system behind this one to kick this out to sea or if the GFS has errored in keeping the high pressure to the north. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 I didn't say it was, but the fact that it's staying put and not sliding OTS is a sign of some blocking, of course it's just an amateur observation. there is NO BLOCKING which is why the hP is able to escape east of Maine. If there was blocking it would be locked in somewhere over SW Quebec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 This one (on this GFS run) has a possibility if any one system does so far. There is less to interfere with this than its predecessor. However, with northeasterly winds and warmer ocean early in the season, at best, I think you could hope for a snow to rain or mix then back to snow type event with some slushy accumulation. The surface temperatures should be marginal. That said, future runs will show us if there will be another system behind this one to kick this out to sea or if the GFS has errored in keeping the high pressure to the north. WX/PT not sure thats right PT. As modeled with an RNA and a vortex in southern Greenland that storm would cut way west....nothing at all to force it south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 not sure thats right PT. As modeled with an RNA and a vortex in southern Greenland that storm would cut way west....nothing at all to force it south. Did I say it couldn't cut way west? I think there's a possibility. I don't think that I ruled that out anywhere in my statement. If the high to the north moved further east and were over Nova Scotia or off of the Maine coast it could certainly cut to the left rather than go under it. But so far, the pattern has favored systems tracking well south of us and/or hardly developing into what the models project well in advance. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 CPC for Thanksgiving week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Euro weeklies show a gradient pattern. Anything above 40N is fine on the weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 0z Euro has another solution on the table for next week's storm 0z Euro snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Some very strong winds just passed through my area, blew the shades around even though the windows were closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 I am not seeing how we loose the ++AO anytime soon Can you explain what you see that the models dont? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 All I can say is the dry weather has been bad for my complexion and the pattern sucks for the car wash business.such problems. see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 The GFS really backed off the rain later this week from yesterday's run. What else is new. This isn't turning out to be one of the driest falls on record for nothing. Driest falls in NYC 3.90"...2013 4.00"...1908 4.67"...1909 4.93"...1881 4.97"...1931 5.02"...1879 yesterday today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 0z Euro has another solution on the table for next week's storm 0z Euro snowmap map is a weenie algorithm wet dream. The BL is torching under 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 0z Euro has another solution on the table for next week's storm 0z Euro snowmap map is a weenie algorithm wet dream. The BL is torching under 850. Yep. Our 850's would never support that Map for the tday storm. Unfortautely I think we will see that weenie map a lot this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 This looks like the first +4 AO in November since 1994. 1994 11 14 3.5331994 11 15 4.3631994 11 16 3.7541994 11 17 2.7171994 11 18 2.7791994 11 19 3.5041994 11 20 4.1771994 11 21 4.4441994 11 22 4.001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 FWIW, the 06z GFS delays the storm until the 30th and then has a driving rainstorm with a sub 992 mb low near the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Sunday and Monday look to be our first two days of not getting out of the 30's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 The Euro has lows below 0 in Northern New England with the push of arctic air this upcoming weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 We see the -EPO and -NAO ridges trying to poke into North Pole, over the next several days. That's why see AO drop on the CPC charts. But that pattern appears to regress next week on the latest guidance. So overall the +AO pattern continues. Meanwhile, the Euro Ensemble mean does support storm forming over the Southeast next week. The question is how much phasing takes place? An earlier phase could support a bigger storm cutting to our west. A later phase could support a weaker storm tracking out to sea. The AO/NAO going positive later next week, doesn't make a solution somewhere in between appear likely: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 We see the -EPO and -NAO ridges trying to poke into North Pole, over the next several days. That's why see AO drop on the CPC charts. But that pattern appears to regress next week on the latest guidance. So overall the +AO pattern continues. Meanwhile, the Euro Ensemble mean does support storm forming over the Southeast next week. The question is how much phasing takes place? An earlier phase could support a bigger storm cutting to our west. A later phase could support a weaker storm tracking out to sea. The AO/NAO going positive later next week, doesn't make a solution somewhere in between appear likely: The NAO signal is all over the place in the latest ensemble guidance. Certainly we would like to see the riding further west over Greenland in order to get a big east coast storm in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 0z Euro has another solution on the table for next week's storm 0z Euro snowmap map is a weenie algorithm wet dream. The BL is torching under 850. For Long Island yes but NW of I-95 it's below freezing at all levels for most of the event. Especially NW of I-287. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 The GFS really backed off the rain later this week from yesterday's run. What else is new. This isn't turning out to be one of the driest falls on record for nothing. Driest falls in NYC 3.90"...2013 4.00"...1908 4.67"...1909 4.93"...1881 4.97"...1931 5.02"...1879 yesterday OLD.png today prec.png 12z is pretty dry also……looks like some sprinkles thats it. The beat goes on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Gfs is very cold this weekend, areas nw of the city see teens for lows. Areas by the lake are going to get dump on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 This looks like the first +4 AO in November since 1994. 1994 11 14 3.533 1994 11 15 4.363 1994 11 16 3.754 1994 11 17 2.717 1994 11 18 2.779 1994 11 19 3.504 1994 11 20 4.177 1994 11 21 4.444 1994 11 22 4.001 ao.obs.gif There's an unpleasant analog, if ever there was one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 four out of the five falls listed had snow in November and had temperatures above the normals for their time... season.........Nov snow seasonal ave temp... 4.00"...1908...1.0"..........20.3"..........36.7..........the 1900's and 10's temp averaged 32.0 and 31.4" of snow... 4.67"...1909...0.8"..........27.2"..........30.5..........dito 4.93"...1881.....T............31.4"..........34.5..........the 1880's averaged 30.8 and 32.8" of snow... 4.97"...1931...2.0"............5.3"..........40.1..........the 20's and 30's averaged 25.9" of snow temp for the 30's averaged 34.0... 5.02"...1879...2.5"..........22.7"..........38.5.........the 1870's averaged 31.5 and 31.9" of snow... 1909-10 was the coldest winter (the only one colder than average)and 1881-82 had the most snowfall...1909-10 had two 8"+ snowfalls...1881-82 had at least one 8" storm in January and set the coldest January temp of -6... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 gfs has light snow for the area tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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