Allsnow Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 sunday still looking cold after the cutter. The 00z euro op was a bit muted with the cold shot for sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 12z GFS is back to showing garbage. The northern branch is running too strong/fast for Thanksgiving on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 12z GFS is back to showing garbage. When it doesn't show what you want, it shows garbage? Actually, this run makes alot more sense than any of the previous eight runs. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 When it doesn't show what you want, it shows garbage? Actually, this run makes alot more sense than any of the previous eight runs. WX/PT It's garbage because it's a garbage pattern for a big east coast storm. I'm not saying the model is wrong but it's certainly not the most supported solution at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 When it doesn't show what you want, it shows garbage? Actually, this run makes alot more sense than any of the previous eight runs. WX/PT The model has been consistent in showing a pattern change which includes a nice step down pattern into winter starting next week - the devil is going to be in the details of individual systems............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 The 12z GEFS mean has significant precip over the area next Sunday with surface temps below freezing and the 850mb freezing line near I-287. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 The 12z GEFS mean has significant precip over the area next Sunday with surface temps below freezing and the 850mb freezing line near I-287. freezing rain then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 I hope the weekend cold doesn't get too muted like the cool down tomorrow was, highs in the 30s for a day or two would be a nice progression into winter. There's certainly a lot of cold building up in Canada and I've read DT's outlook which looks interesting. I favor a near normal December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 freezing rain then? I'm not sure because I don't know enough about thermal profiles to say for sure. It's an ensemble mean though so the main thing to take is that it has something leading to the belief that a few of the members likely show something nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 The model has been consistent in showing a pattern change which includes a nice step down pattern into winter starting next week - the devil is going to be in the details of individual systems............ There's no question that there's more cold air and will continue to be more cold air. And that's consistent with climatology. But, there's still quite a ways to go before idea of a combination of a good storm track and cold air locked in place can be a reality for the NYC Metro region. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 freezing rain then? No. The idea of a costal system next week is quickly vanishing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 No. The idea of a costal system next week is quickly vanishing Because one run of one model didn't have it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 No. The idea of a costal system next week is quickly vanishing Quickly vanishing? I wouldn't say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 you're going to get burned again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 you're going to get burned again Who is going to get burned? Nobody here is guaranteeing anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 At least we have the GGEM for next weekend, which shows rain but at least it's a coastal storm and things can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 And the big storm is still on the GGEM. Looks pretty much like a repeat of it's 00z run, granted it's rain for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 gfs ens are beautiful heading into december….brings the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 12z GFS is back to showing garbage. It's the GFS. And as mentioned, we have a long way to go before we can start getting cold coastal storms again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 NYC should still remain in the top 5 driest falls here with the rain coming in over the weekend. It will then come down to how much rain we can pick up during the last few days of the month. 3.90"...2013 4.00"...1908 4.67"...1909 4.93"...1881 4.97"...1931 5.02"...1879 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 euro at hr 78 had a nice snowstorm for denver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 what a arctic push of air in the mid-west on the 12z euro! It has been a while since we seen this type of airmass in november around the conus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Was expecting temperatures to drop this afternoon but instead they are rising thru the mid and upper 60s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 first storm on euro cuts to our west, sunday/monday still look very cold. The lake areas will be getting their first significant snow event of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 12z Euro hour 198, strong closed low over New Orleans. Everything looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 The cold air looks impressive for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 12z Euro looks similar to the 12z GGEM for Thanksgiving storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Hour 216 high pressure anchored east of Maine. Low towards Kentucky with redevelopment already occurring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Hr 228, secondary over the Delmarva, primary to the lakes dying off, really nice high pressure anchored north of Maine. It's still a rainy solution for our area. Secondary then tracks up the coast. If that primary had died off sooner this would have been quite the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Euro looks nothing like the gfs. It looks lke a miller b on this run. Warm but too far out to talk about the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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